Accurate prediction of fiber-reinforced polymer (FRP)-concrete interfacial bond strength is critical for ensuring the safety of FRP-strengthened structures. This study proposes a predictive model based on extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), which is enhanced via the Nevergrad optimization framework, to address the limited accuracy of traditional empirical approaches. By integrating seven optimizers from the Nevergrad platform, the model achieves global hyperparameter optimization, and a five-fold cross-validation strategy is employed to improve generalization. The prediction results based on 855 sets of single-lap shear test data demonstrate that the optimized model exhibits significantly superior performance on the test set (R² = 0.9726, RMSE = 1.8745, MAE = 1.3857). Compared to the existing best-performing empirical model, the R² is improved by 22.3%, while the RMSE and MAE are reduced by 63.4% and 61.8%, respectively. SHAP interpretability analysis indicates that the width, thickness, elastic modulus, and bond length of the FRP sheets are the main factors influencing the bond strength prediction. The predictive model developed in this study combines high accuracy with strong interpretability, providing a reliable, intelligent tool for designing FRP-strengthened structures.

Accurately predicting the carbonation depth of recycled aggregate (RA) concrete is essential for durability assessment. Based on a dataset of 682 experimental samples, this study employed seven machine learning algorithms to develop prediction models for the carbonation depth of RA concrete. The Optuna framework was utilized to conduct 500 trials of hyperparameter optimization for these models, with the objective of minimizing the 5-fold cross-validated mean squared error. Results indicate that model performance improved significantly after optimization. Among them, the XGBoost model achieved the best performance, with a coefficient of determination (R²) of 0.9789, root mean squared error (RMSE) of 1.0811, mean absolute error (MAE) of 0.6972, mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) of 8.7932%, variance accounted for (VAF) of 97.8966%, and mean bias error (MBE) of 0.0641 on the test set. Explainability analysis using SHapley Additive exPlanations (SHAP) further revealed that exposure time is the most significant factor influencing the carbonation depth prediction. Additionally, considering that the database incorporates both natural and accelerated carbonation conditions, the samples were partitioned based on CO₂ concentration and conducts a stratified performance evaluation. The results demonstrate that the model maintains high predictive accuracy under natural carbonation as well as across different accelerated carbonation intervals, indicating that, within the scope covered by the current dataset, the proposed approach provides a highly accurate and interpretable tool for predicting the carbonation depth of recycled aggregate concrete.

In urban underground space construction using shield tunnelling, the geological conditions ahead of the tunnel face are often uncertain. Without timely and accurate classification of the ground type, mismatches in operational parameters, uncontrolled costs, and schedule risks are likely to occur. Using observations from an earth pressure balance (EPB) project on an urban railway, a data-driven classification framework is developed that integrates shield tunnelling operating measurements with physically derived quantities to discriminate among soft soil, hard rock, and mixed strata. Principal component analysis (PCA) is performed on the training set, followed by a systematic comparison of tree-based classifiers and hyperparameter optimization strategies to explore the attainable performance. Under unified evaluation criteria, a categorical bosting (CatBoost) model optimized by a Nevergrad combination strategy (NGOpt) attains the highest test accuracy of 0.9625, with macro-averaged precision and macro-averaged recall of 0.9715 and 0.9716, respectively. To mitigate optimism from single-point estimates, stratified bootstrap intervals are reported for the test set. A Monte Carlo experiment applies independent perturbations to the PCA-transformed features, producing low label-flip rates across the three classes, with only minor changes in probability calibration metrics, which suggests consistent decisions under sensor noise and sampling bias. Overall, within the scope of the considered EPB project, the study delivers a compact workflow that demonstrates the feasibility of uncertainty-aware ground-type classification and provides a methodological reference for developing decision-support tools in underground tunnel construction.