Michael Neil Evans

Dr. Michael Neil Evans

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Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

18Years (2009-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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24 July 2019 in Nature Geoscience
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PCPAGES 2k Consortium
PAGES 2k Consortium
RNRaphael Neukom
Raphael Neukom
LCLuis A. Barboza Chinchilla
Luis A. Barboza Chinchilla
MEMichael P. Erb
Michael P. Erb
FSFeng Shi
Feng Shi
LGLucien von Gunten
Lucien von Gunten

11 July 2017 in Scientific Data
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Journal Article
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PCPAGES2k Consortium
PAGES2k Consortium
JEJulien Emile-Geay
Julien Emile-Geay
NMNicholas P. McKay
Nicholas P. McKay
DKDarrell S. Kaufman
Darrell S. Kaufman
LGLucien von Gunten
Lucien von Gunten
JZJens Zinke
Jens Zinke
Reproducible climate reconstructions of the Common Era (1 CE to present) are key to placing industrial-era warming into the context of natural climatic variability. Here we present a community-sourced database of temperature-sensitive proxy records from the PAGES2k initiative. The database gathers 692 records from 648 locations, including all continental regions and major ocean basins. The records are from trees, ice, sediment, corals, speleothems, documentary evidence, and other archives. They range in length from 50 to 2000 years, with a median of 547 years, while temporal resolution ranges from biweekly to centennial. Nearly half of the proxy time series are significantly correlated with HadCRUT4.2 surface temperature over the period 1850–2014. Global temperature composites show a remarkable degree of coherence between high- and low-resolution archives, with broadly similar patterns across archive types, terrestrial versus marine locations, and screening criteria. The database is suited to investigations of global and regional temperature variability over the Common Era, and is shared in the Linked Paleo Data (LiPD) format, including serializations in Matlab, R and Python.

7 November 2017 in Geoscientific Model Development
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JJJohann H. Jungclaus
Johann H. Jungclaus
EBEdouard Bard
Edouard Bard
MBMélanie Baroni
Mélanie Baroni
PBPascale Braconnot
Pascale Braconnot
JCJian Cao
Jian Cao
EZEduardo Zorita
Eduardo Zorita
The pre-industrial millennium is among the periods selected by the Paleoclimate Model Intercomparison Project (PMIP) for experiments contributing to the sixth phase of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) and the fourth phase of the PMIP (PMIP4). The past1000 transient simulations serve to investigate the response to (mainly) natural forcing under background conditions not too different from today, and to discriminate between forced and internally generated variability on interannual to centennial timescales. This paper describes the motivation and the experimental set-ups for the PMIP4-CMIP6 past1000 simulations, and discusses the forcing agents orbital, solar, volcanic, and land use/land cover changes, and variations in greenhouse gas concentrations. The past1000 simulations covering the pre-industrial millennium from 850 Common Era (CE) to 1849 CE have to be complemented by historical simulations (1850 to 2014 CE) following the CMIP6 protocol. The external forcings for the past1000 experiments have been adapted to provide a seamless transition across these time periods. Protocols for the past1000 simulations have been divided into three tiers. A default forcing data set has been defined for the Tier 1 (the CMIP6 past1000) experiment. However, the PMIP community has maintained the flexibility to conduct coordinated sensitivity experiments to explore uncertainty in forcing reconstructions as well as parameter uncertainty in dedicated Tier 2 simulations. Additional experiments (Tier 3) are defined to foster collaborative model experiments focusing on the early instrumental period and to extend the temporal range and the scope of the simulations. This paper outlines current and future research foci and common analyses for collaborative work between the PMIP and the observational communities (reconstructions, instrumental data).

16 February 2015 in Paleoceanography and Paleoclimatology
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JTJessica E. Tierney
Jessica E. Tierney
NANerilie J. Abram
Nerilie J. Abram
KAKevin J. Anchukaitis
Kevin J. Anchukaitis
MEMichael Neil Evans
Michael Neil Evans
CGCyril Giry
Cyril Giry
JZJens Zinke
Jens Zinke
Most annually resolved climate reconstructions of the Common Era are based on terrestrial data, making it a challenge to independently assess how recent climate changes have affected the oceans. Here as part of the Past Global Changes Ocean2K project, we present four regionally calibrated and validated reconstructions of sea surface temperatures in the tropics, based on 57 published and publicly archived marine paleoclimate data sets derived exclusively from tropical coral archives. Validation exercises suggest that our reconstructions are interpretable for much of the past 400 years, depending on the availability of paleoclimate data within, and the reconstruction validation statistics for, each target region. Analysis of the trends in the data suggests that the Indian, western Pacific, and western Atlantic Ocean regions were cooling until modern warming began around the 1830s. The early 1800s were an exceptionally cool period in the Indo‐Pacific region, likely due to multiple large tropical volcanic eruptions occurring in the early nineteenth century. Decadal‐scale variability is a quasi‐persistent feature of all basins. Twentieth century warming associated with greenhouse gas emissions is apparent in the Indian, West Pacific, and western Atlantic Oceans, but we find no evidence that either natural or anthropogenic forcings have altered El Niño–Southern Oscillation‐related variance in tropical sea surface temperatures. Our marine‐based regional paleoclimate reconstructions serve as benchmarks against which terrestrial reconstructions as well as climate model simulations can be compared and as a basis for studying the processes by which the tropical oceans mediate climate variability and change.

21 August 2015 in Nature Communications
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Qibing ZhangQibing Zhang
Qibing Zhang
MEMichael Neil Evans
Michael Neil Evans
LLLixin Lyu
Lixin Lyu
The South Asian Monsoon and mid-latitude Westerlies are two important controls on Tibetan Plateau (TP) fresh water resources. Understanding their interaction requires long-term information on spatial patterns in moisture variability on the TP. Here we develop a network of 23 moisture-sensitive tree-ring chronologies from major juniper forests in a north–south transect on the eastern TP. Over the past five and a half centuries, we find that these chronologies cluster into two groups, North and South, of ∼33° N. Southern and northern regional chronology subsets are positively and significantly correlated with May–June Palmer Drought Severity Indices (PDSI). The meridional moisture stress gradient reconstructed from these data suggests substantial stochastic variation, yet persistent moisture stress differences are observed between 1463–1502 CE and 1693–1734 CE. Identification of these patterns provides clues linking them with forced or intrinsic tropical–extratropical interactions and thus facilitates studies of interannual–decadal dipole variations in hydroclimate over the TP.

8 September 2017 in Forests
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DMDario Martin-Benito
Dario Martin-Benito
KAKevin Anchukaitis
Kevin Anchukaitis
MEMichael Neil Evans
Michael Neil Evans
MRMiren Del Río
Miren Del Río
HBHans Beeckman
Hans Beeckman
ICIsabel Cañellas
Isabel Cañellas
Exploring how drought influences growth, performance, and survival in different species is crucial to understanding the impacts of climate change on forest ecosystems. Here, we investigate the responses of two co-occurring pines (Pinus nigra and Pinus sylvestris) to interannual drought in east-central Spain by dendrochronological and wood anatomical features integrated with isotopic ratios of carbon (δ13C) and oxygen (δ18O) in tree rings. Our results showed that drought induces both species to allocate less carbon to build tracheid cell-walls but increases tracheid lumen diameters, particularly in the transition wood between early and latewood, potentially maximizing hydraulic conductivity but reducing resistance to embolism at a critical phase during the growing season. The thicker cell-wall-to-lumen ratio in P. nigra could imply that its xylem may be more resistant to bending stress and drought-induced cavitation than P. sylvestris. In contrast, the higher intrinsic water-use efficiency (iWUE) in P. sylvestris suggests that it relies more on a water-saving strategy. Our results suggest that narrower cell-walls and reduced growth under drought are not necessarily linked to increased iWUE. At our site P. nigra showed a higher growth plasticity, grew faster and was more competitive than P. sylvestris. In the long term, these sustained differences in iWUE and anatomical characters could affect forest species performance and composition, particularly under increased drought stress.