Drylands are home to more than 38% of the world's population and are one of the most sensitive areas to climate change and human activities. This review describes recent progress in dryland climate change research. Recent findings indicate that the long‐term trend of the aridity index (AI) is mainly attributable to increased greenhouse gas emissions, while anthropogenic aerosols exert small effects but alter its attributions. Atmosphere‐land interactions determine the intensity of regional response. The largest warming during the last 100 years was observed over drylands and accounted for more than half of the continental warming. The global pattern and interdecadal variability of aridity changes are modulated by oceanic oscillations. The different phases of those oceanic oscillations induce significant changes in land‐sea and north‐south thermal contrasts, which affect the intensity of the westerlies and planetary waves and the blocking frequency, thereby altering global changes in temperature and precipitation. During 1948–2008, the drylands in the Americas became wetter due to enhanced westerlies, whereas the drylands in the Eastern Hemisphere became drier because of the weakened East Asian summer monsoon. Drylands as defined by the AI have expanded over the last 60 years and are projected to expand in the 21st century. The largest expansion of drylands has occurred in semiarid regions since the early 1960s. Dryland expansion will lead to reduced carbon sequestration and enhanced regional warming. The increasing aridity, enhanced warming, and rapidly growing population will exacerbate the risk of land degradation and desertification in the near future in developing countries.

The responses of atmospheric variability to Tibetan Plateau (TP) snow cover (TPSC) at seasonal, interannual and decadal time scales have been extensively investigated. However, the atmospheric response to faster subseasonal variability of TPSC has been largely ignored. Here, we show that the subseasonal variability of TPSC, as revealed by daily data, is closely related to the subsequent East Asian atmospheric circulation at medium-range time scales (approximately 3–8 days later) during wintertime. TPSC acts as an elevated cooling source in the middle troposphere during wintertime and rapidly modulates the land surface thermal conditions over the TP. When TPSC is high, the upper-level geopotential height is lower, and the East Asia upper-level westerly jet stream is stronger. This finding improves our understanding of the influence of TPSC at multiple time scales. Furthermore, our work highlights the need to understand how atmospheric variability is rapidly modulated by fast snow cover changes.

To resolve a series of ecological and environmental problems over the Loess Plateau, the “Grain for Green Program” (GFGP) was initiated at the end of 1990s. Following the conversion of croplands and bare land on hillslopes to forests, the Loess Plateau has displayed a significant greening trend, which has resulted in soil erosion being reduced. However, the GFGP has also affected the hydrology of the Loess Plateau, which has raised questions regarding whether the GFGP should be continued in the future. We investigated the impact of revegetation on the hydrology of the Loess Plateau using relatively high-resolution simulations and multiple realizations with the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Results suggest that revegetation since the launch of the GFGP has reduced runoff and soil moisture due to enhanced evapotranspiration. Further revegetation associated with the GFGP policy is likely to further increase evapotranspiration, and thereby reduce runoff and soil moisture. The increase in evapotranspiration is associated with biophysical changes, including deeper roots that deplete deep soil moisture stores. However, despite the increase in evapotranspiration, our results show no impact on rainfall. Our study cautions against further revegetation over the Loess Plateau given the reduction in water available for agriculture and human settlements and the lack of any significant compensation from rainfall.

Biomass burning is a main source for primary carbonaceous particles in the atmosphere and acts as a crucial factor that alters Earth's energy budget and balance. It is also an important factor influencing air quality, regional climate and sustainability in the domain of Pan-Eurasian Experiment (PEEX). During the exceptionally intense agricultural fire season in mid-June 2012, accompanied by rapidly deteriorating air quality, a series of meteorological anomalies was observed, including a large decline in near-surface air temperature, spatial shifts and changes in precipitation in Jiangsu province of East China. To explore the underlying processes that link air pollution to weather modification, we conducted a numerical study with parallel simulations using the fully coupled meteorology–chemistry model WRF-Chem with a high-resolution emission inventory for agricultural fires. Evaluation of the modeling results with available ground-based measurements and satellite retrievals showed that this model was able to reproduce the magnitude and spatial variations of fire-induced air pollution. During the biomass-burning event in mid-June 2012, intensive emission of absorbing aerosols trapped a considerable part of solar radiation in the atmosphere and reduced incident radiation reaching the surface on a regional scale, followed by lowered surface sensible and latent heat fluxes. The perturbed energy balance and re-allocation gave rise to substantial adjustments in vertical temperature stratification, namely surface cooling and upper-air heating. Furthermore, an intimate link between temperature profile and small-scale processes like turbulent mixing and entrainment led to distinct changes in precipitation. On the one hand, by stabilizing the atmosphere below and reducing the surface flux, black carbon-laden plumes tended to dissipate daytime cloud and suppress the convective precipitation over Nanjing. On the other hand, heating aloft increased upper-level convective activity and then favored convergence carrying in moist air, thereby enhancing the nocturnal precipitation in the downwind areas of the biomass-burning plumes.

East Asia is undergoing significant climate changes and these changes are likely to grow in the future. It is urgent to characterize both the mechanisms controlling climate and the response of the East Asian climate system at global warming of 1.5 and 2 °C above pre-industrial levels (GW1.5 and GW2 hereafter). This study reviews recent studies on East Asian climate change at GW1.5 and GW2. The intensity and variability of the East Asian summer monsoon are expected to increase modestly, accompanied by an enhancement of water vapor transport. Other expected changes include the intensification of the Western Pacific Subtropical High and an intensified and southward shift of the East Asian jet, while the intensity of the East Asian winter monsoon is projected to reduce with high uncertainty. Meanwhile, the frequency of ENSO may increase in a warming world with great uncertainty. Significant warming and wetting occur in East Asia, with more pronounced intensity, frequency, and duration of climate extremes at GW2 than that at GW1.5. The fine structure of regional climate changes and the presence and location of various warming hotspots, however, show substantial divergence among different model simulations. Furthermore, the Asian climate responses can differ substantially between the transient and stabilized GW1.5 and GW2, which has important implications for emission policies. Thus, to better plan effective mitigation and adaptation activities, further research including an in-depth exploration of the divergent responses in transient versus stabilized scenarios, the quantification of future projection uncertainties, and improvements of the methods to reduce model uncertainties are required.

Sea surface temperature (SST) variability has been shown to have predictive value for land precipitation, although SSTs are unable to fully predict intraseasonal to interannual hydrologic extremes. The possible remote effects of large‐scale land surface temperature (LST) and subsurface temperature (SUBT) anomalies in geographical areas upstream and closer to the areas of drought/flood have largely been ignored. Here evidence from climate observations and model simulations addresses these effects. Evaluation of observational data using Maximum Covariance Analysis identifies significant correlations between springtime 2‐m air temperature (T2 m) cold (warm) anomalies in both the western U.S. and the Tibetan Plateau and downstream drought (flood) events in late spring/summer. To support these observational findings, climate models are used in sensitivity studies, in which initial LST/SUBT anomaly is imposed to produce observed T2 m anomaly, to demonstrate a causal relationship for two important cases: between spring warm T2 m/LST/SUBT anomalies in western U.S. and the extraordinary 2015 flood in Southern Great Plains and adjacent regions and between spring cold T2 m/LST/SUBT anomalies in the Tibetan Plateau and the severe 2003 drought south of the Yangtze River region. The LST/SUBT downstream effects in North America are associated with a large‐scale atmospheric stationary wave extending eastward from the LST/SUBT anomaly region. The effects of SST in these cases are also tested and compared with the LST/SUBT effects. These results suggest that consideration of LST/SUBT anomalies has the potential to add value to intraseasonal prediction of dry and wet conditions, especially extreme drought/flood events. The results suggest the importance of developing land data and models capable of preserving observed soil memory.