Arctic Oscillation–induced temperature increase drives earlier snow melting and fire activity over southeastern Siberia.

Positive river heat–sea ice feedback doubles the river heat effect on declining Arctic sea ice.

A land process model [the coupled hydrological and biogeochemical model (CHANGE)] is used to quantitatively assess changes in the ice phenology, thickness, and volume of terrestrial Arctic rivers from 1979 to 2009. The CHANGE model was coupled with a river routing and discharge model enabling explicit representation of river ice and water temperature dynamics. Model-simulated river ice phenological dates and thickness were generally consistent with in situ river ice data and landscape freeze–thaw (FT) satellite observations. Climate data indicated an increasing trend in winter surface air temperature (SAT) over the pan-Arctic during the study period. Nevertheless, the river ice thickness simulations exhibited a thickening regional trend independent of SAT warming, and associated with less insulation and cooling of underlying river ice by thinning snow cover. Deeper snow depth (SND) combined with SAT warming decreased simulated ice thickness, especially for Siberian rivers, where ice thickness is more strongly correlated with SND than SAT. Overall, the Arctic river ice simulations indicated regional trends toward later fall freezeup, earlier spring breakup, and consequently a longer annual ice-free period. The simulated ice phenological dates were significantly correlated with seasonal SAT warming. It is found that SND is an important factor for winter river ice growth, while ice phenological timing is dominated by seasonal SAT. The mean total Arctic river ice volume simulated from CHANGE was 54.1 km3 based on the annual maximum ice thickness in individual grid cells, while river ice volume for the pan-Arctic rivers decreased by 2.82 km3 (0.5%) over the 1979–2009 record. Arctic river ice is shrinking as a consequence of regional climate warming and coincident with other cryospheric components, including permafrost, glaciers, and sea ice.

This study not only examined the spatiotemporal variations of active-layer thickness (ALT) in permafrost regions during 1948–2006 over the terrestrial Arctic regions experiencing climate changes, but also identified the associated drivers based on observational data and a simulation conducted by a land surface model (CHANGE). The focus on the ALT extends previous studies that have emphasized ground temperatures in permafrost regions. The Ob, Yenisey, Lena, Yukon, and Mackenzie watersheds are foci of the study. Time series of ALT in Eurasian watersheds showed generally increasing trends, while the increase in ALT in North American watersheds was not significant. However, ALT in the North American watersheds has been negatively anomalous since 1990 when the Arctic air temperature entered into a warming phase. The warming temperatures were not simply expressed to increases in ALT. Since 1990 when the warming increased, the forcing of the ALT by the higher annual thawing index (ATI) in the Mackenzie and Yukon basins has been offset by the combined effects of less insulation caused by thinner snow depth and drier soil during summer. In contrast, the increasing ATI together with thicker snow depth and higher summer soil moisture in the Lena contributed to the increase in ALT. The results imply that the soil thermal and moisture regimes formed in the pre-thaw season(s) provide memory that manifests itself during the summer. The different ALT anomalies between Eurasian and North American watersheds highlight increased importance of the variability of hydrological variables.