Brazil is one of the world's leading producers and exporters of agricultural products. And it should continue to expand its production in the coming decades, thus remaining one of the main providers of food, fiber and bioenergy for domestic and foreign consumption. This study aimed to analyze, through the Static Computable General Equilibrium model, BREA, the impacts on intermediate demand and on the growth of agricultural production necessary for GDP to reach the expected projection for 2030, both for Brazilian macro-regions and for the MATOPIBA as well as the loss of native forest necessary for this to occur. As a result, to compose the GDP growth in the North region, fruit growing would emerge with a growth of 9.2%. In MATOPIBA, soybean growth in suppressed forest areas showed a growth of approximately 9.7%. It is observed that soy would continue to migrate to regions that hold cheap land and without the embargo of the soy moratorium. The total number of forests suppressed in Brazil for this to occur would be 490 thousand hectares. It is concluded that economic growth related to agricultural sectors is also linked to the conversion of areas of native vegetation for the growth of future production of commodities.

Maritime transport carries over 80% of global trade by volume and remains the most energy-efficient mode for long-distance goods movement. However, the sector contributes approximately 3% of global Greenhouse Gas (GHG) emissions, a share that could rise to 17% by 2050 without effective regulation. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has introduced initial and short-term measures to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions. In 2023, IMO Strategy expanded on these efforts with medium-term measures, including Market-Based Mechanisms (MBMs) such as a GHG levy, a feebate system, and fuel intensity regulations combined with carbon pricing. This study evaluates the economic and environmental impacts of these measures using an integrated computational simulation model that combines Ocean Engineering and Economics. Our results indicate that all proposed measures support the IMO’s intermediate emission reduction targets through 2035, cutting absolute emissions by more than 50%. However, economic impacts vary significantly across regions, with most of Africa, Asia, and South America experiencing the greatest adverse effects on GDP and trade. Among the measures, the GHG levy exerts the strongest pressure on economic activity and food prices, while a revised fuel intensity mechanism imposes lower costs, particularly in the short term. Revenue redistribution mitigates GDP losses but does so unevenly across regions. By leveraging a general equilibrium model (GTAP) to capture indirect effects often overlooked in prior studies, this analysis provides a comprehensive comparison of policy impacts. The findings underscore the need for equitable and pragmatic decarbonization strategies in the maritime sector, contributing to ongoing IMO policy discussions.

This paper aims to analyze the effects of a public policy based on negative income tax (NIT) ideals as an alternative to the current social programs of income transfer in Brazil. A multiregional applied computable general equilibrium model of Brazil's economy is used to analyze the impacts on households' welfare, split into 10 income classes, and 2 factors (capital and labor) for each of 5 major regions. By analyzing two scenarios for the proposed policy, we show that the NIT could be more effective than the current social programs as well as resulting in longer lasting outcomes.

Maritime transport handles over 80% of global trade by volume and remains the most energyefficient mode for long-distance goods movement. However, the sector contributes approximately 3% of global greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions, a share projected to rise to 17% by 2050 if left unregulated. In response, the International Maritime Organization (IMO) has implemented initial and short-term measures to enhance energy efficiency and reduce emissions. The 2023 IMO Strategy further introduces medium-term measures, including market-based mechanisms (MBMs) such as a GHG levy and fuel intensity regulations. This study evaluates the economic, and environmental impacts of these measures using an integrated computational simulation model combining Ocean Engineering and Economics. Our results indicate that all proposed measures align with IMO’s emission reduction intermediate targets through 2035, reducing absolute emissions by more than 50%. However, economic impacts vary significantly across regions, with North Africa, Eastern Africa, Western Africa, and South Asia experiencing the most adverse effects on GDP and trade. Among the measures, the GHG levy has the strongest economic and food price impacts, whereas a revised fuel intensity mechanism imposes lower costs, especially in the short-term. Revenue redistribution mitigates GDP losses but with uneven regional benefits. This study contributes to IMO discussions by providing a comprehensive comparison of policy impacts, leveraging a general equilibrium model (GTAP) to capture indirect effects often overlooked in prior studies. The findings underscore the need for equitable and feasible decarbonization strategies in the maritime sector.

Developing countries are especially vulnerable to climate change, as they often depend on agriculture and have less adaptation possibilities. The present paper assesses the economic implications of climate change in Paraguay, by incorporating projected crop productivity impacts due to climate change in a global multi-region and multi-sector general equilibrium model. The results suggest that despite projected decreases in crop productivity Paraguayan production and exports of wheat and soybeans may increase because of climatic changes, and lead to increased household income and welfare in Paraguay. This is because the projected decreases in crop productivity are generally larger in other regions than in Paraguay, giving the competitive advantage, allowing Paraguay to increase their share on global and regional soybean, wheat, and rice markets. Although these results seem promising for Paraguay, it highlighted the need for future improvements in estimating climate impact on crops at regional and global levels considering integrated agricultural and economic models.

Government transfers to Brazilian families through the Bolsa Família Program have a dual impact on beneficiaries. In the beginning, it plays a fundamental role in raising the well-being of the poorest families, increasing consumption, and temporarily alleviating poverty. In the long term, however, it inhibits the durability of the effects by reducing the price of the labor factor, the main source of income for the poorest families. In this way, the objective of the present study was to evaluate the economic impacts of a policy of qualiĄcation of work through professional courses for beneĄciary families of Bolsa Família in Brazilian regions. To achieve this objective, the DAYANE model was built, a computable, static, multiregional, and multisectoral general equilibrium applied model. The model is based on the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) and the General Equilibrium Analysis Project of the Brazilian economy (PAEG), presenting Brazil divided into Ąve macro-regions and families divided into ten income classes, in each Brazilian region. Unlike the PAEG, the DAYANE model is developed in GEMPACK language and disaggregates familiesŠ schooling into twelve different levels. In building the model, in addition to making the PAEG compatible with the GEMPACK, the preparation of the database required the disaggregation of schooling levels for each income class in the Brazilian regions; of the workforce employed in each sector, by income class in the Brazilian regions; and, of the workforce employed in each sector, by the level of education in the Brazilian regions. In the model, labor qualiĄcation shocks were simulated for beneĄciaries of the Bolsa Família Program, via vocational courses, from the complete basic and incomplete fundamental levels, and the income of families from the Bolsa Família Program is reduced in proportion to the increase in salary. The results of the study indicate that the qualiĄcation of labor, via professional courses, has positive impacts on the wages of families in Brazilian regions, especially in the poorest regions of Brazil. In addition, the study shows that even removing income transfers, via the Bolsa Família Program, in proportion to the increase in the familiesŠ salary, the positive results in the total family income are still maintained, and consumption increases. In this way, the study shows that labor qualiĄcation policies for families dependent on the Bolsa Família Program improve their economic situation, with income from transfers being replaced by income from work, which indicates that government transfers can cease in response to better gains in the labor market, and also ensure the economic improvement of families dependent on the Program. Keywords: Welfare. Bolsa Família Program. Skill improvement. Labour market.