Climate change poses a significant threat to agricultural productivity, particularly in regions vulnerable to extreme temperatures and water scarcity, such as Irbid, Jordan. This study assesses the future impacts of projected shifts in precipitation and temperature on wheat yields, using the Decision Support System for Agrotechnology Transfer (DSSAT) model for calibrating and validating under local agro-environmental conditions. Two shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5), representing high-emission and fossil-fuel-intensive futures, were evaluated across mid- and late-century periods (2030–2060 and 2070–2100). The DSSAT model was calibrated using local field data to simulate crop phenology, biomass accumulation, and nitrogen dynamics, showing strong agreement with observed grain yield and harvest index, thereby confirming its reliability for climate impact assessments. Yield projections under each scenario were further analyzed using machine learning algorithms—random forest and gradient boosting regression—to quantify the influence of individual climate variables. The results showed that under SSP5-8.5 (2030–2060), precipitation was the dominant factor influencing yield variability, underscoring the critical role of water availability. In contrast, under SSP3-7.0 (2070–2100), rising maximum temperatures became the primary constraint, highlighting the growing risk of heat stress. Predictive accuracy was higher in precipitation-dominated scenarios (R² = 0.81) than in temperature-dominated cases (R² = 0.65–0.73), reflecting greater complexity under extreme warming. These findings emphasize the value of integrating well-calibrated crop models with climate projections and machine learning tools to support climate-resilient agricultural planning. Moreover, practical adaptation strategies, such as adjusting planting dates, using heat-tolerant varieties, and optimizing irrigation, are recommended to enhance resilience. Emerging techniques such as seed priming show promise and merit integration into future crop models. The findings support SDG 2 and SDG 13 by informing climate-resilient food production strategies.

Water scarcity is considered one of the most important challenges facing Jordan because of the need to satisfy the municipal, industrial, and agricultural needs. The climate in Jordan reveals that more than 80 percent of its area receives less than 200 mm of rainfall. The water resources are divided into two main parts: conventional (surface and groundwater) and non-conventional (treated wastewater, cloud seeding and desalination of sea water, and brackish water). The major problems facing conventional water resources development are quality deterioratio and resource depletion. The non-conventional resources could increase water supply enough to overcome the shortage and to satisfy the different water needs of the country. Desalination of seawater and brackish groundwater could reduce the need for additional water supply to cover the country's water needs. The uses of water are divided among municipal, industrial, irrigation, and livestock uses. The irrigation sector consumes most of the water resources in the country, and there is a gradual decrease in the water resources for all uses. Sharing water resources is considered very important to water supplies in the present and future. The annual safe yield of groundwater is 275 million cubic meter (MCM) per year while pumping is more than 450 MCM. This increases the stress on groundwater and gives the priority to water harvesting projects in different areas to accumulate the runoff water either in pools or in desert dams for irrigation, livestock, or artificial groundwater recharge. There are more than 25 dams located in the different parts of the country with total storage of about 204 MCM. To avoid the water shortages in Jordan, it is recommended to increase water harvesting projects and reuse wastewater for irrigation purposes.