Daily time series from the Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Africa Rainfall Climatology version 2.0 (ARC2), Climate Hazards Group InfraRed Precipitation with Stations (CHIRPS) and Tropical Applications of Meteorology using SATellite (TAMSAT) African Rainfall Climatology And Time series version 2 (TARCAT) high-resolution long-term satellite rainfall products are exploited to study the spatial and temporal variability of East Africa (EA, 5S–20N, 28–52E) rainfall between 1983 and 2015. Time series of selected rainfall indices from the joint CCl/CLIVAR/JCOMM Expert Team on Climate Change Detection and Indices are computed at yearly and seasonal scales. Rainfall climatology and spatial patterns of variability are extracted via the analysis of the total rainfall amount (PRCPTOT), the simple daily intensity (SDII), the number of precipitating days (R1), the number of consecutive dry and wet days (CDD and CWD), and the number of very heavy precipitating days (R20). Our results show that the spatial patterns of such trends depend on the selected rainfall product, as much as on the geographic areas characterized by statistically significant trends for a specific rainfall index. Nevertheless, indications of rainfall trends were extracted especially at the seasonal scale. Increasing trends were identified for the October–November–December PRCPTOT, R1, and SDII indices over eastern EA, with the exception of Kenya. In March–April–May, rainfall is decreasing over a large part of EA, as demonstrated by negative trends of PRCPTOT, R1, CWD, and R20, even if a complete convergence of all satellite products is not achieved.
East Africa experienced in the 2001–11 time period some of the worst drought events to date, culminating in the high-impact drought of 2010/11. Long-term monitoring of precipitation is thus essential, and satellite-based precipitation products can help in coping with the relatively sparse rain gauge ground networks of this area of the world. However, the complex topography and the marked geographic variability of precipitation in the region make precipitation retrieval from satellites problematic and product validation and intercomparison necessary. Six state-of-the-art monthly satellite precipitation products over East Africa during the 2001–09 time frame are evaluated. Eight areas (clusters) are identified by investigating the precipitation seasonality through the Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) climatological gauge data. Seasonality was fully reproduced by satellite data in each of the GPCC-identified clusters. Not surprisingly, complex terrain (mountain regions in particular) represents a challenge for satellite precipitation estimates, as demonstrated by the standard deviations of the six-product ensemble. A further confirmation comes from the comparison between satellite estimates and rain gauge measurements as a function of terrain elevation. The 3B42 product performs best, although the satellite–gauge comparative analysis was not completely independent since a few of the products include a rain gauge bias correction.
This paper evaluates Integrated Multi-Satellite Retrievals from GPM (IMERG-F) over Europe for the period 2014–2018 in order to evaluate application of the retrievals to hydrology. IMERG-F is compared with a large pan-European precipitation dataset built on rain gauge stations, i.e., the ENSEMBLES OBServation (E-OBS) gridded dataset. Although there is overall agreement in the spatial distribution of mean precipitation (R2 = 0.8), important discrepancies are revealed in mountainous regions, specifically the Alps, Pyrenees, west coast of the British Isles, Scandinavia, the Iberian and Italian peninsulas, and the Adriatic coastline. The results show that the strongest contributors to poor performance are pixels where IMERG-F has no gauges available for adjustment. If rain gauges are available, IMERG-F yields results similar to those of the surface observations, although the performance varies by region. However, even accounting for gauge adjustment, IMERG-F systematically underestimates precipitation in the Alps and Scandinavian mountains. Conversely, IMERG-F overestimates precipitation in the British Isles, Italian Peninsula, Adriatic coastline, and eastern European plains. Additionally, the research shows that gauge adjustment worsens the spatial gradient of precipitation because of the coarse resolution of Global Precipitation Climatology Centre data.
1 March 2018 in Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology
Wind energy requires accurate forecasts for adequate integration into the electric grid system. In addition, global atmospheric models are not able to simulate local winds in complex terrain, where wind farms are sometimes placed. For this reason, the use of mesoscale models is vital for estimating wind speed at wind turbine hub height. In this regard, the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model allows a user to apply different initial and boundary conditions as well as physical parameterizations. In this research, a sensitivity analysis of several physical schemes and initial and boundary conditions was performed for the Alaiz mountain range in the northern Iberian Peninsula, where several wind farms are located. Model performance was evaluated under various atmospheric stabilities and wind speeds. For validation purposes, a mast with anemometers installed at 40, 78, 90, and 118 m above ground level was used. The results indicate that performance of the Global Forecast System analysis and European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts interim reanalysis (ERA-Interim) as initial and boundary conditions was similar, although each performed better under certain meteorological conditions. With regard to physical schemes, there is no single combination of parameterizations that performs best during all weather conditions. Nevertheless, some combinations have been identified as inefficient, and therefore their use is discouraged. As a result, the validation of an ensemble prediction system composed of the best 12 deterministic simulations shows the most accurate results, obtaining relative errors in wind speed forecasts that are <15%.
11 January 2021 in International Journal of Climatology
Gridded precipitation datasets have been developed for data assimilation and evaluation tasks of weather and climate models and for climate analyses. Gridded data uncertainty evaluation is crucial to understand the limitations and feasibility. The development of high‐resolution daily gridded precipitation datasets is desirable, but several factors need to be considered, namely rain gauge station availability, their spatial distribution, and orographic and climate characteristics of a study area. Quality assessment of gridded datasets can present difficulties when the influence of these factors is not thoroughly analysed. The main objective of this study was a detailed validation of precipitation grids based on four factors, that is, station density used for grid construction, grid spatial resolution, station altitude, and climate type. To this end, 18 grids were built using six spatial resolutions (0.01°, 0.025°, 0.05°, 0.1°, 0.2° and 0.4°) and three station densities (25, 50 and 75% of all available stations). Results indicate larger differences among the grids as a function of analysed factors. Station density was found to be the main factor, whereas grid spatial resolution had minor importance. However, the latter factor becomes more relevant in areas with strong altitude gradients and when a high station density is available. In addition, weak and moderate precipitation is overestimated on daily grids, whereas heavy precipitation cells are less frequent, reducing data variability. On the contrary, monthly and annual aggregates present less deviation from the observed distribution than daily comparisons. These findings question the applicability of the daily grid datasets for validation studies and climate analysis on a grid cell level.