In the context of the globalization process, the interplay between geopolitical dynamics and international trade fluctuations has had significant effects on global economic and business stability. Recent crises, such as the US–China trade war, the invasion of Ukraine, and the COVID-19 pandemic, have highlighted how changes in the structure of international trade can amplify the risks of business failure and reshape global competitiveness. This study aims to analyze in depth the transmission of business failure risk within the global trade network by assessing the sensitivity of industrial sectors in different countries to disruptive/critical/significant events. Through the integration of data from sources such as the World Trade Organization, national customs, and international relations research centers, a quantitative, exploratory, and descriptive approach based on graph theory, random forest, multivariate regression models, and neural networks is developed. This quantitative system makes it possible to identify patterns of risk propagation and to evaluate the degree of vulnerability of each country according to its commercial and financial structure. The mechanisms that relate geopolitical factors, such as trade sanctions and international conflicts, with the oscillations in the global market are analyzed. This study not only contributes to our understanding of how the macroeconomic environment influences business survival, but also provides analytical tools for strategic decision making. By providing an empirical and theoretical framework for early risk identification, it brings a novel perspective to academia and business, facilitating better adaptation to an increasingly volatile and uncertain business environment.