Urban trees deliver multiple ecosystem services. However, rapid climate change may alter species-specific growth suitability, necessitating climate-informed planting and management. We developed 1 km grid-based ensemble species distribution models (ensemble SDMS) for 18 tree species widely planted in South Korean cities and projected growth suitability under SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0, and SSP5-8.5 across four future periods (2021–2040, 2041–2060, 2061–2080, 2081–2100) relative to a historical baseline (2000–2019). We quantified multidimensional redistribution signals from SDM outputs, including binary suitable area changes, centroid displacement, latitudinal boundary shifts, and mean suitability changes, using multivariate climatic predictors and complementary environmental variables. These indicators were integrated to classify species responses into four management-relevant types: Stable, Northward Expansion, Poleward Shift, Range Contraction. Model performance was generally high (AUC = 0.74–0.97). Although the median change in suitable area remained near 0%, interspecific variability increased toward later periods and under stronger forcing, with the largest dispersion under SSP3-7.0 (2041–2060). Stable type was most frequent overall (36.8–63.2%), but Northward Expansion increased to 42.1% under late-century SSP3-7.0, and Range Contraction reached 36.8% under mid-century SSP3-7.0. This indicator-based typology provides a practical basis for decision-support tools to prioritize climate-adaptive urban tree selection, replacement, and monitoring.

This study explores the health status of veteran Zelkova serrata trees (average age 300 years) in the Pohang region in the context of long-term climatic trends and local environmental variability. Eleven nationally designated veteran trees were monitored using physiological indicators Soil Plant Analysis Development (SPAD) values and live crown ratio (LCR), internal structural assessment (sonic tomography-derived decay ratio), and environmental parameters including meteorological records and Landsat-derived Land Surface Temperature (LST) data from 2000 to 2025. While recent years showed localized heat-extreme events, most sites displayed spatially heterogeneous yet gradually increasing LST trends, with 2024 recording the highest values at more than half the locations. Tree vitality differences were more strongly associated with site specific microclimatic conditions than with uniform long-term climate shifts: trees in cooler or less urbanized zones showed higher SPAD values and lower decay levels, whereas those in warmer, edge-influenced sites exhibited signs of physiological stress. The results indicate that rising summer surface temperature—and their interaction with atmospheric drying—intensify water-stress impacts, but the actual tree responses are modulated by local land-cover and soil stability contexts. These findings underscore the need for integrated, multi-scale assessment of veteran tree health and suggest that conservation practices should incorporate microclimate-based intervention strategies.