The per capita CO₂ emissions (PCCE) of many developing countries like China have been rising faster than total CO₂ emissions, and display spatial divergence. Such temporal growth and spatial divergence will have a significant influence on efforts to mitigate CO₂ emissions. Given the research gap on the impact of the structural transition in population on PCCE, we constructed an econometric model using the dynamic panel method. The results reveal that the population structural transition has a significant nonlinear impact on PCCE, as the rate of population growth in China decelerates. Both demographic ageing and urban-rural migration have a stronger impact on PCCE than other factors. This effect, however, decreases beyond a certain threshold. An increase in the number of households due to urbanization and family downsizing has resulted in a positive effect on PCCE, without a threshold turning point. The research also finds that an increased share of the service sector in employment can reduce PCCE only if the sector employs more than 31.56% of the total employed population. Overall, these findings indicate that policymakers should pay attention to the prominence of the demographic structural transition for effective climate policy. Key policy insights

As the world’s largest greenhouse gas emitter, China would make important contributions to the achievement of the Paris goals if it made economy-wide, strong policy interventions to combat climate change. Despite a growing number of studies on China’s climate governance, the overall landscape of China’s climate policy and its key characteristics remain underexamined. To address this knowledge gap, we developed a dataset of 358 climate-related policies adopted by China’s central government in 2016–2022 and assessed key policy mix characteristics including policy density, balance and intensity. Our findings reveal that higher policy density does not equate to stronger action. Significant variation also exists in alignment with China’s Nationally Determined Contributions, especially in high-emitting sectors. Moreover, despite a relatively balanced mix of regulatory, economic, and informational instruments, this balance does not guarantee intensity. Our study shows challenges in China’s policy coherence and calls for stronger mechanisms to integrate national goals into sectoral policies.