Accurate day-ahead photovoltaics (PV) power forecasting results are significant for power grid operation. According to different weather modes, the existing research has established a classification forecast framework to improve the accuracy of day-ahead forecasts. However, the existing framework still has the following two problems: (1) weather mode prediction and power forecasting are highly dependent on the accuracy of numerical weather prediction (NWP), but the existing classification forecasting framework ignores the impact from NWP errors; (2) the validity of the classification forecasting framework comes from the accurate prediction of weather modes, but the existing framework lacks the analysis and decision-making mechanism of the reliability of weather mode prediction results, which will lead to a significant decline in the overall accuracy when weather modes are wrongly predicted. Therefore, this paper proposes a day-ahead PV power forecasting method based on irradiance correction and weather mode reliability decision. Firstly, based on the measured irradiance, K-means clustering method is used to obtain the daily actual weather mode labels; secondly, considering the coupling relationship of meteorological elements, the graph convolutional network (GCN) model is used to correct the predicted irradiance by using multiple meteorological elements of NWP data; thirdly, the weather mode label is converted into one-heat code, and a weather mode reliability prediction model based on a convolutional neural network (CNN) is constructed, and then the prediction strategy of the day to be forecasted is decided; finally, based on the weather mode reliability prediction results, transformer model are established for unreliable weather and credible weather respectively. The simulation results of the ablation experiments show that classification prediction is an effective strategy to improve the forecasting accuracy of day-ahead PV output, which can be further improved by adding irradiance correction and weather mode reliability prediction modules.

With the rapid increase in renewable energy penetration and the expansion of multi-regional interconnected power systems, there is a growing need to forecast the power output of renewable energy power plant clusters within a region. Existing methods primarily utilize spatio-temporal correlations between stations to directly predict cluster output, but they still have the following shortcomings: (1) lack of analysis and utilization of the similar output characteristics between wind and solar power stations; and (2) inadequate integration of individual plant characteristics and adaptability across different prediction spatial scales. Therefore, this study proposes a method for forecasting and correcting daily power generation zones of wind–solar clusters based on output similarity clustering. First, the output similarity characteristics of wind and solar plants within the cluster are evaluated, and a similarity matrix is constructed to cluster the plants into sub-clusters. Second, a single-site power prediction model based on the BiLSTM model and multi-task learning is constructed to aggregate preliminary power prediction results from individual sites within sub-clusters. Finally, a cluster power prediction correction model based on the GCN-Transformer model is developed to refine preliminary predictions using spatio-temporal correlations between sub-clusters. Simulation results demonstrate that the proposed method, through its integrated approach combining clustering partitioning, multi-task learning, and spatio-temporal correlation correction within a comprehensive forecasting workflow, achieves improvements of 15.2323%, 19.0581%, and 0.0283% over the baseline GCN model in terms of MAE, RMSE, and R-score, respectively. This effectively enhances the accuracy of power forecasting for wind-solar power plant clusters.

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