The 40-yr ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-40) data are combined with a number of novel climatologies to conduct a comprehensive examination of the response of the subtropical and extratropical atmosphere over the Pacific basin to an evolving Madden–Julian oscillation (MJO) event. The adopted approach constitutes a symbiosis of a climatological analysis during the Northern Hemisphere winter from 1979 to 2002 and a case study analysis of a distinct MJO event that occurred in January–February 1993. The former is designed to obtain the general characteristics observed during a composite MJO life cycle, while the latter is used to provide insight into the instantaneous mechanisms responsible for the observed composite evolution. A primary component of the study involves the diagnosis of anomalous wave breaking activity in response to MJO forcing in the form of tropical convection and/or upper-level divergence. Wave breaking events are separated by their characteristic life cycles: LC1 (anticyclonic) and LC2 (cyclonic) events. Statistically significant anomalies in wave breaking activity are found to be prevalent during the composite MJO event. Furthermore, the dynamical distinction between LC1 and LC2 wave breaking is useful in that the two different characteristic life cycles exhibit significantly different anomalous behavior during the MJO. Statistically significant variability is also identified in both the subtropical and extratropical flow and atmospheric blocking and surface cyclone frequency. These data, taken in conjunction with the observed evolution of the 1993 MJO event, provide a relatively coherent picture of the response of the atmosphere to MJO forcing. A schematic representation of the evolution is presented.

The maintenance of baroclinicity along mid‐ and high‐latitude storm tracks is a matter of ongoing debate. Using an isentropic framework, a novel diagnostic based on the tendency equation for the slope of isentropic surfaces – a measure of the potential for baroclinic development – is presented. The tendency comprises contributions from dynamic processes, latent heat release, radiation and subgrid‐scale turbulence, which incorporates the effect of sensible heat fluxes. A climatology of these tendencies over the North Atlantic is compiled for the winters of 2009 and 2010.It is found that adiabatic tilting flattens the isentropic surfaces, reflecting the action of growing baroclinic cyclones. This tendency is balanced climatologically by the generation of slope by diabatic processes. In the lower troposphere, the most intense diabatic increase of slope is found along the oceanic frontal zone associated with the Gulf Stream and at higher latitudes in the Labrador Sea, the Nordic Seas and the Barents Sea. Latent heat release and sensible heat fluxes both contribute substantially in these regions. A quantitative analysis of cold‐air outbreaks emphasizes their important role in restoring the slope in the lower troposphere over the Gulf Stream region and off the sea‐ice edge at high latitudes. In the upper troposphere, latent heat release due to cloud microphysical processes is the dominant mechanism maintaining the slope.

Polar lows are intense meso-α-scale cyclones that develop over the oceans poleward of the main baroclinic zone. A number of previous studies have reported polar low formation over the Sea of Japan within the East Asian winter monsoon. To understand the climatology of polar lows over the Sea of Japan, a tracking algorithm for polar lows is applied to the recent JRA-55 reanalysis. The polar low tracking is applied to 36 cold seasons (October–March) from October 1979 to March 2015. The polar lows over the Sea of Japan reach their maximum intensity on the southeastern side of the midline between the Japanese islands and the Asian continent. Consistent with previous case studies, composite analysis demonstrates that the polar low development is associated with the enhanced northerly flow on the western side of a synoptic-scale extratropical cyclone, with the cold trough in the midtroposphere and with increased heat fluxes from the sea surface. Furthermore, the present climatological study has revealed two dominant directions of motion of the polar lows: southward and eastward. Southward-moving polar lows are steered by a strong northerly flow in the lower troposphere, which is enhanced on the western side of synoptic-scale extratropical cyclones, while the eastward-moving polar lows occur within a planetary-scale westerly flow in the midlatitudes. Thus, the direction of polar low motion reflects the difference in planetary- and synoptic-scale conditions.

It is now well established that the Arctic is warming at a faster rate than the global average. This warming, which has been accompanied by a dramatic decline in sea ice, has been linked to cooling over the Eurasian subcontinent over recent decades, most dramatically during the period 1998–2012. This is a counter-intuitive impact under global warming given that land regions should warm more than ocean (and the global average). Some studies have proposed a causal teleconnection from Arctic sea-ice retreat to Eurasian wintertime cooling; other studies argue that Eurasian cooling is mainly driven by internal variability. Overall, there is an impression of strong disagreement between those holding the “ice-driven” versus “internal variability” viewpoints. Here, we offer an alternative framing showing that the sea ice and internal variability views can be compatible. Key to this is viewing Eurasian cooling through the lens of dynamics (linked primarily to internal variability with some potential contribution from sea ice; cools Eurasia) and thermodynamics (linked to sea-ice retreat; warms Eurasia). This approach, combined with recognition that there is uncertainty in the hypothesized mechanisms themselves, allows both viewpoints (and others) to co-exist and contribute to our understanding of Eurasian cooling. A simple autoregressive model shows that Eurasian cooling of this magnitude is consistent with internal variability, with some periods exhibiting stronger cooling than others, either by chance or by forced changes. Rather than posit a “yes-or-no” causal relationship between sea ice and Eurasian cooling, a more constructive way forward is to consider whether the cooling trend was more likely given the observed sea-ice loss, as well as other sources of low-frequency variability. Taken in this way both sea ice and internal variability are factors that affect the likelihood of strong regional cooling in the presence of ongoing global warming.

The westerly Greenland tip jet is an intense, narrow and intermittent wind phenomenon located southeast of Cape Farewell that occurs frequently during the winter season. Using the ERA‐40 reanalysis dataset, a catalogue of 586 objectively detected westerly tip jet events is compiled for the winters 1957‐2002, and an analysis is undertaken of the character of the jet and its accompanying atmospheric features. It is shown that the tip jet frequency exhibits a significant positive correlation with both the NAO index and the latitude of the Icelandic Low. The peak wind speed and accompanying heat fluxes of the jet have values up to 30 m s⁻¹and 600 W m⁻², respectively, and are sustained for less than one day. The air parcels constituting the tip jet are shown, based upon a trajectory model and the ERA‐40 dataset, to have a continental origin, and to exhibit a characteristic deflection and acceleration around southern Greenland. The events are almost invariably accompanied both by a notable coherence of the lower‐level tip jet with an overlying upper‐level jet stream, and by a surface cyclone located to the lee of Greenland. It is also shown that the cyclone originates upstream of and is advected to the lee of Greenland, and thereby it both precedes in time and contributes dynamically to the formation of the tip jet. On this basis, it is suggested that the tip jet arises from the interplay of the synoptic‐scale flow evolution and the perturbing effects of Greenland's topography upon the flow. Copyright © 2009 Royal Meteorological Society

The most catastrophic fires in recent history in southern Australia have been associated with extreme cold fronts. Here an extreme cold front is defined as one for which the maximum temperature at 2 m is at least 17°C lower on the day following the front. An anticyclone, which precedes the cold front, directs very dry northerlies or northwesterlies from the interior of the continent across the region. The passage of the cold front is followed by strong southerlies or southwesterlies. European Centre for Medium‐Range Weather Forecasts ERA‐Interim Reanalyses show that this regional synoptic pattern common to all strong cold fronts, and hence severe fire conditions, is a consequence of propagating Rossby waves, which grow to large amplitude and eventually irreversibly overturn. The process of overturning produces the low‐level anticyclone and dry conditions over southern Australia, while simultaneously producing an upper level trough and often precipitation in northeastern Australia.