In this paper, we study the combined mean field and homogenization limits for a system of weakly interacting diffusions moving in a two-scale, locally periodic confining potential, of the form considered in Duncan et al. (Brownian motion in an N-scale periodic potential, arXiv:1605.05854, 2016b). We show that, although the mean field and homogenization limits commute for finite times, they do not, in general, commute in the long time limit. In particular, the bifurcation diagrams for the stationary states can be different depending on the order with which we take the two limits. Furthermore, we construct the bifurcation diagram for the stationary McKean–Vlasov equation in a two-scale potential, before passing to the homogenization limit, and we analyze the effect of the multiple local minima in the confining potential on the number and the stability of stationary solutions.

In this paper we develop a framework for parameter estimation in macroscopic pedestrian models using individual trajectories---microscopic data. We consider a unidirectional flow of pedestrians in a corridor and assume that the velocity decreases with the average density according to the fundamental diagram. Our model is formed from a coupling between a density dependent stochastic differential equation and a nonlinear partial differential equation for the density, and is hence of McKean--Vlasov type. We discuss identifiability of the parameters appearing in the fundamental diagram from trajectories of individuals, and we introduce optimization and Bayesian methods to perform the identification. We analyze the performance of the developed methodologies in various situations, such as for different in- and outflow conditions, for varying numbers of individual trajectories, and for differing channel geometries.

Falling liquid films become unstable due to inertial effects when the fluid layer is sufficiently thick or the slope sufficiently steep. This free surface flow of a single fluid layer has industrial applications including coating and heat transfer, which benefit from smooth and wavy interfaces, respectively. Here, we discuss how the dynamics of the system are altered by feedback controls based on observations of the interface height, and supplied to the system via the perpendicular injection and suction of fluid through the wall. In this study, we model the system using both Benney and weighted-residual models that account for the fluid injection through the wall. We find that feedback using injection and suction is a remarkably effective control mechanism: the controls can be used to drive the system towards arbitrary steady states and travelling waves, and the qualitative effects are independent of the details of the flow modelling. Furthermore, we show that the system can still be successfully controlled when the feedback is applied via a set of localised actuators and only a small number of system observations are available, and that this is possible using both static (where the controls are based on only the most recent set of observations) and dynamic (where the controls are based on an approximation of the system which evolves over time) control schemes. This study thus provides a solid theoretical foundation for future experimental realisations of the active feedback control of falling liquid films.

A mathematical model for the COVID-19 pandemic spread, which integrates age-structured Susceptible-Exposed-Infected-Recovered-Deceased dynamics with real mobile phone data accounting for the population mobility, is presented. The dynamical model adjustment is performed via Approximate Bayesian Computation. Optimal lockdown and exit strategies are determined based on nonlinear model predictive control, constrained to public-health and socio-economic factors. Through an extensive computational validation of the methodology, it is shown that it is possible to compute robust exit strategies with realistic reduced mobility values to inform public policy making, and we exemplify the applicability of the methodology using datasets from England and France.

The problem of controlling and stabilizing solutions to the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky (KS) equation is studied in this paper. We consider a generalized form of the equation in which the effects of an electric field and dispersion are included. Both the feedback and optimal control problems are studied. We prove that we can control arbitrary non-trivial steady states of the KS equation, including travelling wave solutions, using a finite number of point actuators. The number of point actuators needed is related to the number of unstable modes of the equation. Furthermore, the proposed control methodology is shown to be robust with respect to changing the parameters in the equation, e.g. the viscosity coefficient or the intensity of the electric field. We also study the problem of controlling solutions of coupled systems of KS equations. Possible applications to controlling thin film flows are discussed. Our rigorous results are supported by extensive numerical simulations.

In this paper we consider systems of weakly interacting particles driven by colored noise in a bistable potential, and we study the effect of the correlation time of the noise on the bifurcation diagram for the equilibrium states. We accomplish this by solving the corresponding McKean--Vlasov equation using a Hermite spectral method, and we verify our findings using Monte Carlo simulations of the particle system. We consider both Gaussian and non-Gaussian noise processes, and for each model of the noise we also study the behavior of the system in the small correlation time regime using perturbation theory. The spectral method that we develop in this paper can be used for solving linear and nonlinear, local and nonlocal (mean field) Fokker--Planck equations, without requiring that they have a gradient structure.