Although artificial intelligence (AI) has had a profound impact on areas such as image recognition, comparable advances in drug discovery are rare. This article quantifies the stages of drug discovery in which improvements in the time taken, success rate or affordability will have the most profound overall impact on bringing new drugs to market. Changes in clinical success rates will have the most profound impact on improving success in drug discovery; in other words, the quality of decisions regarding which compound to take forward (and how to conduct clinical trials) are more important than speed or cost. Although current advances in AI focus on how to make a given compound, the question of which compound to make, using clinical efficacy and safety-related end points, has received significantly less attention. As a consequence, current proxy measures and available data cannot fully utilize the potential of AI in drug discovery, in particular when it comes to drug efficacy and safety in vivo. Thus, addressing the questions of which data to generate and which end points to model will be key to improving clinically relevant decision-making in the future.

'Artificial Intelligence' (AI) has recently had a profound impact on areas such as image and speech recognition, and this progress has already translated into practical applications. However, in the drug discovery field, such advances remains scarce, and one of the reasons is intrinsic to the data used. In this review, we discuss aspects of, and differences in, data from different domains, namely the image, speech, chemical, and biological domains, the amounts of data available, and how relevant they are to drug discovery. Improvements in the future are needed with respect to our understanding of biological systems, and the subsequent generation of practically relevant data in sufficient quantities, to truly advance the field of AI in drug discovery, to enable the discovery of novel chemistry, with novel modes of action, which shows desirable efficacy and safety in the clinic.

Cyclooxygenases (COX) are present in the body in two isoforms, namely: COX-1, constitutively expressed, and COX-2, induced in physiopathological conditions such as cancer or chronic inflammation. The inhibition of COX with non-steroideal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) is the most widely used treatment for chronic inflammation despite the adverse effects associated to prolonged NSAIDs intake. Although selective COX-2 inhibition has been shown not to palliate all adverse effects (e.g. cardiotoxicity), there are still niche populations which can benefit from selective COX-2 inhibition. Thus, capitalizing on bioactivity data from both isoforms simultaneously would contribute to develop COX inhibitors with better safety profiles. We applied ensemble proteochemometric modeling (PCM) for the prediction of the potency of 3,228 distinct COX inhibitors on 11 mammalian cyclooxygenases. Ensemble PCM models ( $R_{0\ test}^{2}=0.65$ R 0 test 2 = 0.65 , and RMSE_test = 0.71) outperformed models exclusively trained on compound ( $R_{0\ test}^{2}=0.17$ R 0 test 2 = 0.17 , and RMSE_test = 1.09) or protein descriptors ( $R_{0\ test}^{2}=0.16$ R 0 test 2 = 0.16 and RMSE_test = 1.10) on the test set. Moreover, PCM predicted COX potency for 1,086 selective and non-selective COX inhibitors with $R_{0\ test}^{2}=0.59$ R 0 test 2 = 0.59 and RMSE_test = 0.76. These values are in agreement with the maximum and minimum achievable $R_{0\ test}^{2}$ R 0 test 2 and RMSE_test values of approximately 0.68 for both metrics. Confidence intervals for individual predictions were calculated from the standard deviation of the predictions from the individual models composing the ensembles. Finally, two substructure analysis pipelines singled out chemical substructures implicated in both potency and selectivity in agreement with the literature.

The development of treatments involving combinations of drugs is a promising approach towards combating complex or multifactorial disorders. However, the large number of compound combinations that can be generated, even from small compound collections, means that exhaustive experimental testing is infeasible. The ability to predict the behaviour of compound combinations in biological systems, whittling down the number of combinations to be tested, is therefore crucial. Here, we review the current state-of-the-art in the field of compound combination modelling, with the aim to support the development of approaches that, as we hope, will finally lead to an integration of chemical with systems-level biological information for predicting the effect of chemical mixtures.