In this paper, we describe and analyze a climatology of the Hot-Dry-Windy Index (HDW), with the goal of providing fire-weather forecasters with information about the daily and seasonal variability of the index. The 30-year climatology (1981–2010) was produced using the Climate Forecast System Reanalysis (CFSR) for the contiguous United States, using percentiles to show seasonal and geographical variations of HDW contained within the climatology. The method for producing this climatology is documented and the application of the climatology to historical fire events is discussed. We show that the HDW climatology provides insight into near-surface climatic conditions that can be used to identify temperature and humidity trends that correspond to climate classification systems. Furthermore, when used in conjunction with daily traces of HDW values, users can follow trends in HDW and compare those trends with historical values at a given location. More usefully, this climatology adds value to HDW forecasts; by combining the CFSR climatology and a Global Ensemble Forecast System (GEFS) ensemble history and forecast, we can produce a single product that provides seasonal, climatological, and short-term context to help determine the appropriate fire-management response to a given HDW value.

Lake-effect storms (LES) produce substantial snowfall in the vicinity of the downwind shores of the Great Lakes. These storms may take many forms; one type of LES event, lake to lake (L2L), occurs when LES clouds/snowbands develop over an upstream lake (e.g., Lake Huron), extend across an intervening landmass, and continue over a downstream lake (e.g., Lake Ontario). The current study examined LES snowfall in the vicinity of Lake Ontario and the atmospheric conditions during Lake Huron-to-Lake Ontario L2L days as compared with LES days on which an L2L connection was not present [i.e., only Lake Ontario (OLO)] for the cold seasons (October–March) from 2003/04 through 2013/14. Analyses of snowfall demonstrate that, on average, significantly greater LES snowfall totals occur downstream of Lake Ontario on L2L days than on OLO days. The difference in mean snowfall between L2L and OLO days approaches 200% in some areas near the Tug Hill Plateau and central New York State. Analyses of atmospheric conditions found more-favorable LES environments on L2L days relative to OLO days that included greater instability over the upwind lake, more near-surface moisture available, faster wind speeds, and larger surface heat fluxes over the upstream lake. Last, despite significant snowfalls on L2L days, their average contribution to the annual accumulated LES snowfall in the vicinity of Lake Ontario was found to be small (i.e., 25%–30%) because of the relatively infrequent occurrence of L2L days.

Many numerical studies have focused on the importance of baroclinically generated vorticity at the edge of cold pools in supercellular tornadogenesis, and observational work has consistently found that strongly tornadic supercells have less dense, more buoyant cold pools than weakly or nontornadic supercells. However, there is a lack of observational studies that consider potential relationships between cold pool characteristics (e.g., density) and tornado production within linear systems, such as MCS or QLCS events. This study presents two tornadic QLCS events that were observed during the Verification of the Origins of Rotation in Tornadoes Experiment – Southeast (VORTEX-SE) field project in 2016 and 2017. Supercell and hybrid modes were also observed and compared to the observations from the linear systems. No obvious differences in the thermodynamic deficits of the tornadic and nontornadic samples were found, likely due to the weakness of the produced tornadoes (≤EF1) and the small tornadic sample size (five cold pools). Comparison across storm mode did find some differences, with QLCS cold pools producing larger θ_v and θ_e deficits than those observed in supercells. More importantly, our findings suggest that, in a QLCS, the magnitude of density gradients along the leading edge of the cold pool may be related to tornadogenesis by virtue of the implied baroclinic vorticity generation.