Sarah  Perkins-Kirkpatrick

Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick


Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

20Years (2007-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

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1 February 2016 in Progress in Oceanography
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Journal Article
Closed access
AHAlistair J. Hobday
Alistair J. Hobday
LALisa V. Alexander
Lisa V. Alexander
SPSarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
DSDan A Smale
Dan A Smale
SSSandra C. Straub
Sandra C. Straub
TWThomas Wernberg
Thomas Wernberg

10 April 2018 in Nature Communications
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
EOEric Oliver
Eric Oliver
Markus DonatMarkus Donat
Markus Donat
MBMichael T. Burrows
Michael T. Burrows
PMPippa J. Moore
Pippa J. Moore
DSDan A Smale
Dan A Smale
TWThomas Wernberg
Thomas Wernberg
Heatwaves are important climatic extremes in atmospheric and oceanic systems that can have devastating and long-term impacts on ecosystems, with subsequent socioeconomic consequences. Recent prominent marine heatwaves have attracted considerable scientific and public interest. Despite this, a comprehensive assessment of how these ocean temperature extremes have been changing globally is missing. Using a range of ocean temperature data including global records of daily satellite observations, daily in situ measurements and gridded monthly in situ-based data sets, we identify significant increases in marine heatwaves over the past century. We find that from 1925 to 2016, global average marine heatwave frequency and duration increased by 34% and 17%, respectively, resulting in a 54% increase in annual marine heatwave days globally. Importantly, these trends can largely be explained by increases in mean ocean temperatures, suggesting that we can expect further increases in marine heatwave days under continued global warming.

3 July 2020 in Nature Communications
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Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
SPSarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
SLS. C. Lewis
S. C. Lewis
Heatwaves have increased in intensity, frequency and duration, with these trends projected to worsen under enhanced global warming. Understanding regional heatwave trends has critical implications for the biophysical and human systems they impact. Until now a comprehensive assessment of regional observed changes was hindered by the range of metrics employed, underpinning datasets, and time periods examined. Here, using the Berkeley Earth temperature dataset and key heatwave metrics, we systematically examine regional and global observed heatwave trends. In almost all regions, heatwave frequency demonstrates the most rapid and significant change. A measure of cumulative heat shows significant increases almost everywhere since the 1950s, mainly driven by heatwave days. Trends in heatwave frequency, duration and cumulative heat have accelerated since the 1950s, and due to the high influence of variability we recommend regional trends are assessed over multiple decades. Our results provide comparable regional observed heatwave trends, on spatial and temporal scales necessary for understanding impacts.

4 March 2019 in Nature Climate Change
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Journal Article
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DSDan A Smale
Dan A Smale
TWThomas Wernberg
Thomas Wernberg
EOEric Oliver
Eric Oliver
MTMads Thomsen
Mads Thomsen
BHBen Harvey
Ben Harvey
PMPippa J. Moore
Pippa J. Moore

1 July 2013 in Journal of Climate
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Journal Article
Open access
SPSarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
LAL. V. Alexander
L. V. Alexander
Despite their adverse impacts, definitions and measurements of heat waves are ambiguous and inconsistent, generally being endemic to only the group affected, or the respective study reporting the analysis. The present study addresses this issue by employing a set of three heat wave definitions, derived from surveying heat-related indices in the climate science literature. The definitions include three or more consecutive days above one of the following: the 90th percentile for maximum temperature, the 90th percentile for minimum temperature, and positive extreme heat factor (EHF) conditions. Additionally, each index is studied using a multiaspect framework measuring heat wave number, duration, participating days, and the peak and mean magnitudes. Observed climatologies and trends computed by Sen's Kendall slope estimator are presented for the Australian continent for two time periods (1951–2008 and 1971–2008). Trends in all aspects and definitions are smaller in magnitude but more significant for 1951–2008 than for 1971–2008. Considerable similarities exist in trends of the yearly number of days participating in a heat wave and yearly heat wave frequency, suggesting that the number of available heat wave days drives the number of events. Larger trends in the hottest part of a heat wave suggest that heat wave intensity is increasing faster than the mean magnitude. Although the direct results of this study cannot be inferred for other regions, the methodology has been designed as such that it is widely applicable. Furthermore, it includes a range of definitions that may be useful for a wide range of systems impacted by heat waves.

27 October 2012 in Geophysical Research Letters
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Journal Article
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SPSarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
Sarah Perkins-Kirkpatrick
LAL. V. Alexander
L. V. Alexander
JNJ. R. Nairn
J. R. Nairn