This study investigated the annual and seasonal rainfall variability at five selected stations of Amhara Regional State, by using the innovative trend analysis method (ITAM), Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope estimator test. The result showed that the trend of annual rainfall was increasing in Gondar (Z = 1.69), Motta (Z = 0.93), and Bahir Dar (Z = 0.07) stations. However, the trends in Dangla (Z = −0.37) and Adet (Z = −0.32) stations showed a decreasing trend. As far as monthly and seasonal variability of rainfall are concerned, all the stations exhibited sensitivity of change. The trend of rainfall in May, June, July, August, and September was increasing. However, the trend on the rest of other months showed a decreasing trend. The increase in rainfall during Kiremt season, along with the decrease in number of rainy days, leads to an increase of extreme rainfall events over the region during 1980–2016. The consistency in rainfall trends over the study region confirms the robustness of the change in trends. Innovative trend analysis method is very crucial method for detecting the trends in rainfall time series data due to its potential to present the results in graphical format as well. The findings of this paper could help researchers to understand the annual and seasonal variability of rainfall over the study region and become a foundation for further studies.
The Awash river basin has been the most extensively developed and used river basin in Ethiopia since modern agriculture was introduced. This paper investigated the annual precipitation, temperature, and river discharge variability using the innovative trend analysis method (ITAM), Mann–Kendall (MK) test, and Sen’s slope estimator test. The results showed that the trend of annual precipitation was significantly increasing in Fitche (Z = 0.82) and Gewane (Z = 0.80), whereas the trend in Bui (Z = 69) was slightly decreasing and the trend in Sekoru (Z = 0.45) was sharply decreasing. As far as temperature trends were concerned, a statistically significant increasing trend was observed in Fitche (Z = 3.77), Bui (Z = 4.84), and Gewane (Z = 5.59). However, the trend in Sekoru (Z = 1.37) was decreasing with statistical significance. The discharge in the study basin showed a decreasing trend during the study period. Generally, the increasing and decreasing levels of precipitation, temperature, and discharge across the stations in this study indicate the change in trends. The results of this study could help researchers, policymakers, and water resources managers to understand the variability of precipitation, temperature, and river discharge over the study basin.
31 March 2020 in Polish Journal of Environmental Studies
The upper part of the Huai River basin is spatially extensive, with pronounced environmental gradients driven primarily by precipitation and temperature on broad scales. Therefore, it is an ideal region in which to examine the climate dynamics of the region. This study investigates the annual precipitation and temperature time serious variability, at six designated representative stations, by using the innovative trend analysis method (ITA), Mann-Kendall (MK) and Sen’s slope test estimator. The result showed that the trend of annual precipitation was slightly decreasing in Xiangcheng (Z = -2.04), Zhumadian ( Z= -0.43), Gushi (Z = 0.26), Xinyang (Z = -2.22), and Xichong (Z = -0.59) stations. Increasing trend was observed only in Fuyang station (Z = -0.97). Summer is characterized by high temperature and its major rain season in the study area, which contributes about 49.3% of total rainfall. In all stations the trend of annual temperature in Xiangcheng (Z = 6.72), Zhumadian (Z = 7.04), Gushi (Z = 6.96), Fuyang (Z = 7.07), Xinyang (Z = 7.04) and Xichong (Z = 2.85) sharply increased. The average air temperature has significantly increased by 1.2ºC during the past 56 years. The ITA was found to be reliable and consistent as MK and Sen’s slope test estimators for the study region. Furthermore, ITA can present the data in graphical format for better understanding of the results through detecting a sub trend series. Therefore, this study can be an inordinate resource to other researchers for studying climate variability and their impacts to eco-hydrology using the ITA method.
Rational allocation of water resources is very essential to cope with water scarcity. The optimal allocation of limited water resources is required for various purposes to achieve sustainable development. The Awash River Basin is currently faced with a scarcity of water due to increasing demands, urbanization, irrigation expansion, and variability of climates. The excessive abstraction of water resources in the basin without proper assessing of the available water resources contributed to water scarcity. This paper aimed to develop a water evaluation and planning (WEAP) model to allocate the water supplies to demanding sectors based on an economic parameter to maximize the economic benefits. The water demands, water shortages, and supply alternatives were analyzed under different scenarios. Three scenarios were developed, namely reference (1981–2016), medium-term development (2017–2030), and long-term development (2031–2050) future scenarios with the baseline period (1980). The results of this study showed that the total quantity of water needed to meet the irrigation demands of all the stations was 306.96 MCM from 1980 to 2016. Seasonally, March, April, May, and June require the maximum irrigation water demand. However, July, August, and September require minimum demand for water because of the rainy season. The seasonal unmet demand is observed in all months, which ranged from 6 × 106 m3 to 35.9 × 106 m3 in August and May respectively. The trend of streamflow in Melka Kuntre was a statistically significant increasing trend after 2008 (Z = 5.33) whereas the trends in other gauge stations showed a relatively decreasing trend. The results also showed that future water consumption would greatly increase in the Awash River Basin. The prevention of future water shortages requires the implementation of water-saving measures and the use of new water supply technologies. The findings of this study will serve as a reference for water resources managers and policy and decision makers.
Mongolia’s Selenga sub-basin of the Lake Baikal basin is spatially extensive, with pronounced environmental gradients driven primarily by precipitation and air temperature on broad scales. Therefore, it is an ideal region to examine the dynamics of the climate and the hydrological system. This study investigated the annual precipitation, air temperature, and river discharge variability at five selected stations of the sub-basin by using Mann-Kendall (MK), Innovative trend analysis method (ITAM), and Sen’s slope estimator test. The result showed that the trend of annual precipitation was slightly increasing in Ulaanbaatar (Z = 0.71), Erdenet (Z = 0.13), and Tsetserleg (Z = 0.26) stations. Whereas Murun (Z = 2.45) and Sukhbaatar (Z = 1.06) stations showed a significant increasing trend. And also, the trend of annual air temperature in Ulaanbaatar (Z = 5.88), Erdenet (Z = 3.87), Tsetserleg (Z = 4.38), Murun (Z = 4.77), and Sukhbaatar (Z = 2.85) was sharply increased. The average air temperature has significantly increased by 1.4 °C in the past 38 years. This is very high in the semi-arid zone of central Asia. The river discharge showed a significantly decreasing trend during the study period years. It has been apparent since 1995. The findings of this paper could help researchers to understand the annual variability of precipitation, air temperature, and river discharge over the study region and, therefore, become a foundation for further studies.
The changes in climatic variables in Ethiopia are not entirely understood. This paper investigated the recent trends of precipitation and temperature on two eco-regions of Ethiopia. This study used the observed historical meteorological data from 1980 to 2016 to analyze the trends. Trend detection was done by using the non-parametric Mann-Kendall (MK), Sen’s slope estimator test, and Innovative Trend Analysis Method (ITAM). The results showed that a significant increasing trend was observed in the Gondar, Bahir Dar, Gewane, Dembi-Dolo, and Negele stations. However, a slightly decreasing trend was observed in the Sekoru, Degahabur, and Maichew stations regarding precipitation trends. As far as the trend of temperature was concerned, an increasing trend was detected in the Gondar, Bahir Dar, Gewane, Degahabur, Negele, Dembi-Dolo, and Maichew stations. However, the temperature trend in Sekoru station showed a sharp decreasing trend. The effects of precipitation and temperature changes on water resources are significant after 1998. The consistency in the precipitation and temperature trends over the two eco-regions confirms the robustness of the changes. The findings of this study will serve as a reference for climate researchers, policy and decision makers.