Argentina anserina (Rosaceae), a perennial herb, forms enlarged tuberous roots (commonly referred to as “ginseng fruit”) exclusively in the Qinghai–Tibet Plateau, making it a unique medicinal and edible plant resource in this region. The upper reaches of the Dadu River and Minjiang River are one of its primary production areas in China. This study employs an ensemble model to simulate the potential distribution of A. anserina in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, ecological niche, and centroid migration patterns. Additionally, a cultivation productivity evaluation model integrating ecological suitability and nutritional components was developed to delineate potential cultivation areas. Results indicate that high-suitability habitats span 0.37 × 10⁴ km² (7.39% of the total suitable area), exhibiting a patchy and fragmented distribution in Aba County, Rangtang County, Jiuzhi County, and Banma County. Core cultivation areas cover 3.78 × 10⁴ km², distributed across Aba County, Rangtang County, Jiuzhi County, Seda County, Banma County, Hongyuan County, and Markam City. Under future climate scenarios, the suitable distribution area of A. anserina will gradually decline with rising temperatures, migrating to higher-latitude northern regions, accompanied by increased niche migration. By the 2090s under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the centroid demonstrates the largest migration amplitude, with high-suitability habitats showing a “collapsing” polarization pattern and near-complete niche separation from the previous period, indicating significant changes. Collectively, these results provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable utilization of A. anserina in the upper Dadu River and Minjiang River basin.

Under global climate change, sustainable management of plant resources in alpine canyon regions faces severe challenges. M. esculenta, highly valued for its edible and medicinal properties, is widely harvested for consumption by residents in the upper Dadu River–Minjiang River region. This study employs ensemble models to simulate the potential distribution of M. esculenta in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, centroid migration of suitable habitats, and niche dynamics. Additionally, a production dynamics model integrating ecological suitability and nutritional components was developed to delineate current and future potential cultivation zones for M. esculenta. The results indicate that current high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones of M. esculenta are predominantly distributed in a patchy and fragmented pattern. The high-suitability habitats in the upper Dadu River–Minjiang River region have three distribution centers: the largest spans southern Danba County, southern Jinchuan County, and northeastern Kangding City, while the other two are located in northeastern Li County, southwestern Aba County, and northwestern Ma’erkang City, with sporadic distributions in Heishui County, Maoxian County, and Wenchuan County. First-level cultivation areas are primarily concentrated in Kangding City, Danba County, Ma’erkang City, Li County, and surrounding regions. Under climate change, low-suitability areas and third-level cultivation zones for M. esculenta in the region have increased significantly, while high- and medium-suitability areas, along with first- and second-level cultivation zones, have decreased notably. Concurrently, suitable habitats and cultivation zones exhibit a migration trend toward higher northern latitudes. The most pronounced changes in suitable areas and cultivation zones, as well as the largest niche migration, occur under the high-emission climate scenario. This study facilitates the formulation of suitability-based management strategies for M. esculenta in the upper Dadu River–Minjiang River region and provides a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of mountain plant resources under climate change.

Under the pressures of global climate change, the sustainable management of plant resources in alpine gorge regions faces severe challenges. P. aquilinum var. latiusculum is widely harvested and utilized by residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu River–Min River basin due to its high edible and medicinal value. This study employed ensemble models to simulate the potential distribution of P. aquilinum var. latiusculum in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, the centroid migration of suitable habitats, and niche dynamics. A production dynamics model was also constructed to identify current and future potential cultivation areas by integrating ecological suitability and nutritional component synergies. The results show that current high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones of P. aquilinum var. latiusculum are predominantly distributed in patchy, fragmented patterns across the Wenchuan, Li, Mao, Luding, and Xiaojin Counties and Kangding City. Under climate change, the “mountain-top trap effect” drives a significant increase in high-suitability areas and core cultivation zones, while moderate-to-low-suitability areas and marginal cultivation zones decrease substantially. Meanwhile, suitable habitats and cultivation areas exhibit a northward migration trend toward higher latitudes. The most significant changes in suitable area and cultivation zone extent, as well as the most pronounced niche shifts, occur under high-emission climate scenarios. This research facilitates the development of suitability-based management strategies for P. aquilinum var. latiusculum in the study region and provides scientific references for the sustainable utilization of montane plant resources in the face of climate change.

Aralia elata (Miq.) Seem. (A. elata), a deciduous shrub in the Araliaceae family, is a prized wild edible vegetable among residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu-Minjiang River. Its tender shoots are valued for their unique flavor and rich nutrition, serving not only as an edible plant but also as an economic crop with medicinal properties. This study utilized an ensemble model to simulate the potential distribution of A. elata in this region, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, and ecological niche. Additionally, a cultivation productivity evaluation model integrating ecological suitability and nutritional components was developed to delineate potential cultivation areas. Results showed that high-suitability habitats of A. elata span 0.64 × 104km², primarily in block-shaped distributions in Tianquan and Baoxing Counties, with fragmented patchy and linear distributions at the junctions of Maoxian-Songpan and Maoxian-Heishui Counties, as well as within Songpan County. First-level cultivation areas, covering 0.33 × 104km², are mainly located in eastern Tianquan and southern Baoxing Counties. Under future climate scenarios, the areas of potential suitable habitats and cultivation zones for A. elata will gradually expand with increasing temperatures, migrating toward higher-altitude regions, accompanied by enhanced niche migration. Extreme emission scenarios significantly improve core habitat quality, as indicated by these trends. Collectively, these findings provide a theoretical basis for the sustainable utilization of A. elata in the upper Dadu-Minjiang River region.

Introduction: Climate change has profoundly reshaped the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of plants. A. victorialis, a wild vegetable with significant edible and medicinal value, is highly favored by residents in the upper reaches of the Dadu River - Minjiang River, leading to its extensive collection and utilization.Methods: This study simulated the potential distribution of A. victorialis in the upper reaches of the Dadu River-Minjiang River using an ensemble model, predicting the impacts of future climate change on its distribution, the migration patterns of the centroid of suitable habitats, and its ecological niche. Additionally, a production dynamic model integrating ecological suitability and nutritional components of A. victorialis was constructed to delineate its current and future potential cultivation areas.Results and discussion: The results demonstrated that the annual temperature range, precipitation in the warmest quarter, and temperature seasonality coefficient are the main factors restricting the potential distribution of A. victorialis Multivariate environmental similarity and the most dissimilar variable analysis revealed significant climate anomalies in the study area, indicating that future climate change will have a substantial impact on A. victorialis. In the current period, the suitable habitats and high-yield cultivation areas of A. victorialis are concentrated in low-altitude river valleys in the upper reaches of the Dadu River - Minjiang River. Under future scenarios, highly suitable habitats and first-class cultivation areas will face shrinkage, with the ecological niche and distribution centroid migrating northeastward. By 2090, under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the changes will be most drastic: first-class cultivation areas will disappear entirely, and highly suitable habitats will be nearly lost. This study will facilitate the development of suitable management strategies for A. victorialis in the upper reaches of the Dadu River-Minjiang River, providing a scientific reference for the sustainable utilization of mountain plant resources under climate change.

The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper.