Qiongzhuea tumidinoda stands out as an endemic bamboo species of significant conservation importance in Southwest China, particularly in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. It holds a pivotal role in poverty alleviation through the commercialization of its wood and bamboo shoots. However, the suitable area of this species is undergoing rapid changes due to climate change, resulting in species redistribution and potential losses for bamboo farmers. We utilized 209 presence records and 25 environmental variables from 1987 to 2012 to predict the potentially suitable habitats for Q. tumidinoda using MaxEnt (version 3.4.1), ArcGIS (version 10.8.2), and R (4.3.3). We rigorously screened the recorded data for reliability and accuracy through expert consultations and observer interviews. We performed pre-processing to select the variables with high contributions for modeling, and 11 variables were selected for the final modeling. Our findings reveal that the top three most influential variables associated with Q. tumidinoda’s distribution were the mean monthly potential evapotranspiration (Pet), annual range of air temperatures (Bio7), and mean diurnal air temperature range (Bio2), and the rates of contributions from 1987 to 2012 were 4.8333, 3.5833, and 1.7000. There was a southeastward shift and an elevation increase in the potentially suitable habitats for Q. tumidinoda. The area of potentially suitable habitats in the study region exhibited fluctuating growth, expanding from 3063.42 km² to 7054.38 km². The mean monthly potential evapotranspiration (Pet) emerged as a critical determinant shaping the distribution of potentially suitable habitats for Q. tumidinoda. Our study sheds light on the response of Q. tumidinoda to climate change, offering valuable insights for the development and management of plantation industries associated with this species. In the future, to enhance prediction accuracy, researchers could equally consider both organic and inorganic environmental variables. For better preservation of environment and development, Q. tumidinoda could be introduced into nature restoration projects in areas with a suitable habitat or as a commodity that participates in forest carbon sink trading.

In the context of accelerating global climate change, the accurate quantification of forest carbon sequestration at the regional scale is of critical importance to estimate carbon budgets and formulate targeted ecological policies. This study systematically investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving mechanisms of arbor forest carbon stocks between 2016 and 2020 in Yunnan Province, China. Based on the “One Map” forest resource inventory, the continuous biomass expansion factor (CBEF) method, standard deviational ellipse (SDE) analysis, and multiple linear regression (MLR) modeling, the results showed the following. (1) Arbor forest carbon stocks steadily increased from 832.13 Mt to 938.84 Mt, and carbon density increased from 41.92 to 42.32 t C·hm⁻². Carbon stocks displayed a dual high pattern in the northwest and southwest, with lower values in the central and eastern regions. (2) The spatial centroid of carbon stocks shifted 4.8 km eastward, driven primarily by afforestation efforts in central and eastern Yunnan. (3) The MLR results revealed that precipitation and economic development were significant positive drivers, whereas temperature, elevation, and anthropogenic disturbances were major limiting factors. A negative correlation to afforestation area indicated a diminished need for new plantations as forest quality and quantity improved. These results provided a theoretical foundation for spatially differentiated carbon sequestration strategies in Yunnan, providing key insights for reinforcing ecological security in Southwest China and enhancing national carbon neutrality objectives.

Yunnan Province, a key forest region in China, plays a crucial role in the nation’s terrestrial carbon sink. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamic