Inducible, anti-predator traits are a classic example of phenotypic plasticity. Their evolutionary dynamics depend on their genetic basis, the historical pattern of predation risk that populations have experienced and current selection gradients. When populations experience predators with contrasting hunting strategies and size preferences, theory suggests contrasting micro-evolutionary responses to selection.Daphnia pulexis an ideal species to explore the micro-evolutionary response of anti-predator traits because they face heterogeneous predation regimes, sometimes experiencing only invertebrate midge predators and other times experiencing vertebrate fish and invertebrate midge predators. We explored plausible patterns of adaptive evolution of a predator-induced morphological reaction norm. We combined estimates of selection gradients that characterize the various habitats thatD. pulexexperiences with detail on the quantitative genetic architecture of inducible morphological defences. Our data reveal a fine scale description of daphnid defensive reaction norms, and a strong covariance between the sensitivity to cues and the maximum response to cues. By analysing the response of the reaction norm to plausible, predator-specific selection gradients, we show how in the context of this covariance, micro-evolution may be more uniform than predicted from size-selective predation theory. Our results show how covariance between the sensitivity to cues and the maximum response to cues for morphological defence can shape the evolutionary trajectory of predator-induced defences inD. pulex.

Understanding how evolution and phenotypic plasticity contribute to variation in heat tolerance is crucial to predicting responses to warming. Here, we analyze 272 thermal death time curves of 53 fish species acclimated to different temperatures and quantify their relative contributions. Analyses show that evolution and plasticity account, respectively, for 80.5% and 12.4% of the variation in elevation across curves, whereas their slope remained invariant. Evolutionary and plastic adaptive responses differ in magnitude, with heat tolerance increasing to 0.54 °C between species and 0.32 °C within species for every 1 °C increase in environmental temperatures. After successfully predicting critical temperatures under ramping conditions to validate these estimates, we show that fish populations can only partly ameliorate the impact of warming waters via thermal acclimation, and this deficit in plasticity could increase as the warming accelerates.