Solanum aculeatissimum is a herbaceous to semi-woody perennial plant native to the Brazilian ecosystem. It has naturalized extensively in southwestern China, posing significant threats to local biodiversity. This study systematically screened and integrated 100 distribution records from authoritative databases, including the Chinese Virtual Plant Specimen Database, the Global Biodiversity Information Facility, and Chinese Natural Museums. Additionally, 23 environmental variables were incorporated, comprising 19 bioclimatic factors from the World Climate Dataset, 3 topographic indicators, and the Human Footprint Index. The objectives of this research are as follows: (1) to simulate the plant’s current and future distribution (2050s/2070s) under CMIP6 scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5); (2) to quantify changes in the distribution range; and (3) to determine the migration trajectory using MaxEnt 3.4.4 software. The findings reveal that human pressure (contributing 79.7%) and isothermality (bioclimatic factor 3: 10.1%) are the primary driving forces shaping its distribution. The core suitable habitats are predominantly concentrated in the provinces of Yunnan, Guizhou, and Sichuan. By 2070, the distribution center shifts northeastward to Qujing City. Under the SSP5-8.5 scenario, the invasion front extends into southern Tibet, while retreat occurs in the lowlands of Honghe Prefecture. This study underscores the synergistic effects of socioeconomic development pathways and bioclimatic thresholds on invasive species’ biogeographical patterns, providing a robust predictive framework for adaptive management strategies.

Biological invasions driven by climate change and human activities pose a serious threat to biodiversity and ecosystem stability in global biodiversity hotspot regions. Lantana camara is a globally recognized aggressive invasive plant that has rapidly spread in southwest China and caused significant ecological risks. To clarify its potential geographic distribution, key driving factors, and future invasion dynamics under climate change, this study applied an MaxEnt model with feature-class optimization, integrating occurrence points, bioclimatic variables, topographic data, and the human footprint index to simulate habitat suitability in southwest China for the current period (1970–2000) and the future (2050s and 2070s) under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP5-8.5). The results show that the current high-suitability area for L. camara is 1.21 × 10⁴ km², mainly distributed in central Yunnan and the Chengdu Plain. Human activity (human footprint index, 52.3%) is the dominant driver, and the mean temperature of the coldest month (28.5%) is the primary natural limiting factor. Future suitable areas exhibit a remarkable scenario-dependent nonlinear response. By the 2070s, the high-suitability area expands most sharply under SSP2-4.5 (3.27 × 10⁴ km², an increase of about 170%), revealing that moderate warming facilitates northward expansion. Under SSP5-8.5, the high-suitability area contracts compared with the 2050s, indicating that extreme high temperatures restrain optimal habitats. Spatially, L. camara displays a “retreat south, advance north” pattern under high-emission scenarios, with its distribution centroid continuously shifting northeast, reflecting climate-driven niche changes. This study verifies that the invasion risk of L. camara does not rise linearly with climate warming. Moderate warming boosts its spread, whereas extreme warming reshapes its distribution, offering a scientific basis for risk assessment, early warning, and targeted control strategies against L. camara invasion in southwest China and worldwide.

Global high-mountain ecosystems are increasingly subjected to intensified anthropogenic disturbances, which facilitate the spread of invasive alien plants and threaten agricultural sustainability and ecological security. Using Laojun Mountain in Yunnan as the study area, this research investigates the relationship between the distribution patterns of invasive plants and land-use changes, based on data from 38 transect surveys conducted in 2023 and 30-m-resolution land-use data spanning 2003–2023. The analysis incorporates a random forest model and a land-use transition matrix. The key findings are as follows: (1) Variable importance analysis revealed elevation as the most critical factor influencing invasion occurrence (mean decrease in Gini index: 8.0), followed by slope, aspect, and land-use type. (2) Cultivated land exhibited the highest probability of invasion, with high-risk areas (>0.8) concentrated in agricultural zones in the central-southern and northeastern regions. (3) From 2003 to 2023, cultivated land increased by a net area of 20.85 km², primarily due to conversion from forests (19.57 km²) and grasslands, while grassland area decreased by 24.70 km². This study concludes that agricultural expansion has intensified habitat fragmentation and anthropogenic disturbances, creating favorable conditions for invasive plant establishment. It is recommended that invasive species monitoring and ecological restoration efforts be strengthened in agroforestry transition zones to enhance landscape resilience against biological invasions.