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Naota Hanasaki
Center for Climate Change Adaptation (Climate Change Impacts Assessment Research Section), National Institute for Environmental Studies, Tsukuba, 3058506, Japan

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Journal article
Published: 05 July 2021 in Nature Sustainability
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ACS Style

Zhipin Ai; Naota Hanasaki; Vera Heck; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori. Global bioenergy with carbon capture and storage potential is largely constrained by sustainable irrigation. Nature Sustainability 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki, Vera Heck, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori. Global bioenergy with carbon capture and storage potential is largely constrained by sustainable irrigation. Nature Sustainability. 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhipin Ai; Naota Hanasaki; Vera Heck; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori. 2021. "Global bioenergy with carbon capture and storage potential is largely constrained by sustainable irrigation." Nature Sustainability , no. : 1.

Review and perspective paper
Published: 24 June 2021 in Geoscientific Model Development
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Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle on the global scale and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modelling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how 16 state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyse water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in models that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to enhance model intercomparison, improvement, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Six models used six compartments, while four models (DBH, JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water for the irrigation sector. We conclude that, even though hydrological processes are often based on similar equations for various processes, in the end these equations have been adjusted or models have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. The similarities and differences found among the models analysed in this study are expected to enable us to reduce the uncertainty in multi-model ensembles, improve existing hydrological processes, and integrate new processes.

ACS Style

Camelia-Eliza Telteu; Hannes Müller Schmied; Wim Thiery; Guoyong Leng; Peter Burek; Xingcai Liu; Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange; Lauren Seaby Andersen; Manolis Grillakis; Simon Newland Gosling; Yusuke Satoh; Oldrich Rakovec; Tobias Stacke; Jinfeng Chang; Niko Wanders; Harsh Lovekumar Shah; Tim Trautmann; Ganquan Mao; Naota Hanasaki; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Yadu Pokhrel; Luis Samaniego; Yoshihide Wada; Vimal Mishra; Junguo Liu; Petra Döll; Fang Zhao; Anne Gädeke; Sam S. Rabin; Florian Herz. Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication. Geoscientific Model Development 2021, 14, 3843 -3878.

AMA Style

Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam S. Rabin, Florian Herz. Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication. Geoscientific Model Development. 2021; 14 (6):3843-3878.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Camelia-Eliza Telteu; Hannes Müller Schmied; Wim Thiery; Guoyong Leng; Peter Burek; Xingcai Liu; Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange; Lauren Seaby Andersen; Manolis Grillakis; Simon Newland Gosling; Yusuke Satoh; Oldrich Rakovec; Tobias Stacke; Jinfeng Chang; Niko Wanders; Harsh Lovekumar Shah; Tim Trautmann; Ganquan Mao; Naota Hanasaki; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Yadu Pokhrel; Luis Samaniego; Yoshihide Wada; Vimal Mishra; Junguo Liu; Petra Döll; Fang Zhao; Anne Gädeke; Sam S. Rabin; Florian Herz. 2021. "Understanding each other's models: an introduction and a standard representation of 16 global water models to support intercomparison, improvement, and communication." Geoscientific Model Development 14, no. 6: 3843-3878.

Development and technical paper
Published: 01 June 2021 in Geoscientific Model Development
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Process-based models are powerful tools for simulating the economic impacts of climate change, but they are computationally expensive. In order to project climate-change impacts under various scenarios, produce probabilistic ensembles, conduct online coupled simulations, or explore pathways by numerical optimization, the computational and implementation cost of economic impact calculations should be reduced. To do so, in this study, we developed various emulators that mimic the behaviours of simulation models, namely economic models coupled with bio/physical-process-based impact models, by statistical regression techniques. Their performance was evaluated for multiple sectors and regions. Among the tested emulators, those composed of artificial neural networks, which can incorporate non-linearities and interactions between variables, performed better particularly when finer input variables were available. Although simple functional forms were effective for approximating general tendencies, complex emulators are necessary if the focus is regional or sectoral heterogeneity. Since the computational cost of the developed emulators is sufficiently small, they could be used to explore future scenarios related to climate-change policies. The findings of this study could also help researchers design their own emulators in different situations.

ACS Style

Jun'ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Naota Hanasaki; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yukiko Hirabayashi; Yasushi Honda; Toshichika Iizumi; Chan Park; Makoto Tamura; Yasuaki Hijioka. Reproducing complex simulations of economic impacts of climate change with lower-cost emulators. Geoscientific Model Development 2021, 14, 3121 -3140.

AMA Style

Jun'ya Takakura, Shinichiro Fujimori, Kiyoshi Takahashi, Naota Hanasaki, Tomoko Hasegawa, Yukiko Hirabayashi, Yasushi Honda, Toshichika Iizumi, Chan Park, Makoto Tamura, Yasuaki Hijioka. Reproducing complex simulations of economic impacts of climate change with lower-cost emulators. Geoscientific Model Development. 2021; 14 (5):3121-3140.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jun'ya Takakura; Shinichiro Fujimori; Kiyoshi Takahashi; Naota Hanasaki; Tomoko Hasegawa; Yukiko Hirabayashi; Yasushi Honda; Toshichika Iizumi; Chan Park; Makoto Tamura; Yasuaki Hijioka. 2021. "Reproducing complex simulations of economic impacts of climate change with lower-cost emulators." Geoscientific Model Development 14, no. 5: 3121-3140.

Preprint content
Published: 11 May 2021
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Vili Virkki; Elina Alanärä; Miina Porkka; Lauri Ahopelto; Tom Gleeson; Chinchu Mohan; Lan Wang-Erlandsson; Martina Flörke; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Naota Hanasaki; Hannes Müller Schmied; Matti Kummu. Supplementary material to "Environmental flow envelopes: quantifying global, ecosystem–threatening streamflow alterations". 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Matti Kummu. Supplementary material to "Environmental flow envelopes: quantifying global, ecosystem–threatening streamflow alterations". . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Vili Virkki; Elina Alanärä; Miina Porkka; Lauri Ahopelto; Tom Gleeson; Chinchu Mohan; Lan Wang-Erlandsson; Martina Flörke; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Naota Hanasaki; Hannes Müller Schmied; Matti Kummu. 2021. "Supplementary material to "Environmental flow envelopes: quantifying global, ecosystem–threatening streamflow alterations"." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 11 May 2021
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Human actions and climate change have drastically altered river flows across the world, resulting in adverse effects on riverine ecosystems. Environmental flows (EFs) have emerged as a prominent tool for safeguarding riverine ecosystems. However, at the global scale, the assessment of EFs is associated with significant uncertainty. Here, we present a novel method to determine EFs by Environmental Flow Envelopes (EFE), which is an envelope of variability bounded by discharge limits within which riverine ecosystems are not seriously compromised. The EFE is defined globally in approximately 4,400 sub–basins at monthly time resolution, considering also the methodological uncertainties related with global EF studies. In addition to a lower bound of discharge, the EFE introduces an upper bound of discharge, identifying areas where streamflow has increased substantially. Further, instead of only showing whether EFs are violated, as commonly done, we quantify, for the first time, the frequency, severity, and trends of EFE violations, which can be considered as potential threats to riverine ecosystems. We use pre–industrial (1801–1860) quasi-natural discharge and a suite of hydrological EFR methods and global hydrological models to estimate EFE, applying data from the ISIMIP 2b ensemble. We then compare the EFEs to recent past (1976–2005) discharge to assess the violations of the EFE. We found that the EFE violations most commonly manifest themselves by insufficient streamflow during the low flow season, with less violations during intermediate flow season, and only few violations during high flow season. These violations are widespread: discharge in half of the sub–basins of the world has violated the EFE during more than 5 % of the months between 1976 and 2005. The trends in EFE violations have mainly been increasing during the past decades and will likely remain problematic with projected increases in anthropogenic water use and hydroclimatic changes. Indications of excessive streamflow through EFE upper bound violations are relatively scarce and spatially distributed, although signs of increasing trends can be identified and potentially attributed to climate change. While the EFE provides a quick and globally robust way of determining environmental flow allocations at the sub–basin scale, local fine–tuning is necessary for practical applications and further research on the coupling between quantitative discharge and riverine ecosystem responses is required.

ACS Style

Vili Virkki; Elina Alanärä; Miina Porkka; Lauri Ahopelto; Tom Gleeson; Chinchu Mohan; Lan Wang-Erlandsson; Martina Flörke; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Naota Hanasaki; Hannes Müller Schmied; Matti Kummu. Environmental flow envelopes: quantifying global, ecosystem–threatening streamflow alterations. 2021, 2021, 1 -31.

AMA Style

Vili Virkki, Elina Alanärä, Miina Porkka, Lauri Ahopelto, Tom Gleeson, Chinchu Mohan, Lan Wang-Erlandsson, Martina Flörke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Naota Hanasaki, Hannes Müller Schmied, Matti Kummu. Environmental flow envelopes: quantifying global, ecosystem–threatening streamflow alterations. . 2021; 2021 ():1-31.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Vili Virkki; Elina Alanärä; Miina Porkka; Lauri Ahopelto; Tom Gleeson; Chinchu Mohan; Lan Wang-Erlandsson; Martina Flörke; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Naota Hanasaki; Hannes Müller Schmied; Matti Kummu. 2021. "Environmental flow envelopes: quantifying global, ecosystem–threatening streamflow alterations." 2021, no. : 1-31.

Journal article
Published: 25 April 2021 in Sustainability
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Rapid urbanization, tourism, and climate change (CC) threaten water resource management in developing countries. Conventional water-planning tools cannot account for the changing effects of water disparity, climate risks, and environmental flow (EF) requirements. This paper proposes an alternative approach that applies stylized water-demand forecasting and predicting water availability from the perspectives of CC, changing society, and EF, thereby providing managers with future scenarios of surface water sufficiency/deficiency in an active ecotourism area, namely, Puerto Princesa City, Philippines. We considered (1) scenarios of seasonal droughts to prepare for climate risks in the future and (2) scenarios of water availability that do not depend on groundwater supply, in which the projected water deficiency is frequent both annually and seasonally. The results of this case study showed that an additional water supply from the Montible Watershed to the city was projected to secure sufficient amounts of water to achieve surface-water sufficiency, which is consistent with the goals of both the municipality and the water company to reduce the dependency on groundwater. Moreover, significant infrastructure investment costs must be anticipated in Scenario 3. Our approach proves efficient in modeling water demand in regions with active tourism and hydrology and therefore has the potential for further analyses and application.

ACS Style

Mark Dela Cruz; Shinichiro Nakamura; Naota Hanasaki; Julien Boulange. Integrated Evaluation of Changing Water Resources in an Active Ecotourism Area: The Case of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan, Philippines. Sustainability 2021, 13, 4826 .

AMA Style

Mark Dela Cruz, Shinichiro Nakamura, Naota Hanasaki, Julien Boulange. Integrated Evaluation of Changing Water Resources in an Active Ecotourism Area: The Case of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan, Philippines. Sustainability. 2021; 13 (9):4826.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mark Dela Cruz; Shinichiro Nakamura; Naota Hanasaki; Julien Boulange. 2021. "Integrated Evaluation of Changing Water Resources in an Active Ecotourism Area: The Case of Puerto Princesa City, Palawan, Philippines." Sustainability 13, no. 9: 4826.

Review
Published: 06 April 2021 in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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Many scenarios of future climate evolution and its anthropogenic drivers include considerable amounts of bioenergy as a fuel source, as a negative emission technology, and for providing electricity. The associated freshwater abstractions for irrigation of dedicated biomass plantations might be substantial and therefore potentially increase water limitation and stress in affected regions; however, assumptions and quantities of water use provided in the literature vary strongly. This paper reviews existing global assessments of freshwater abstractions for bioenergy production and puts these estimates into the context of scenarios of other water-use sectors. We scanned the available literature and (out of 430 initial hits) found 16 publications (some of which include several bioenergy-water-use scenarios) with reported values on global irrigation water abstractions for biomass plantations, suggesting water withdrawals in the range of 128.4 to 9000 km3 yr−1, which would come on top of (or compete with) agricultural, industrial, and domestic water withdrawals. To provide an understanding of the origins of this large range, we present the diverse underlying assumptions, discuss major study differences, and calculate an inverse water-use efficiency (iwue), which facilitates comparison of the required freshwater amounts per produced biomass harvest. We conclude that due to the potentially high water demands and the tradeoffs that might go along with them, bioenergy should be an integral part of global assessments of freshwater demand and use. For interpreting and comparing reported estimates of possible future bioenergy water abstractions, full disclosure of parameters and assumptions is crucial. A minimum set should include the complete water balances of bioenergy production systems (including partitioning of blue and green water), bioenergy crop species and associated water-use efficiencies, rainfed and irrigated bioenergy plantation locations (including total area and meteorological conditions), and total biomass harvest amounts. In the future, a model intercomparison project with standardized parameters and scenarios would be helpful.

ACS Style

Fabian Stenzel; Dieter Gerten; Naota Hanasaki. Global scenarios of irrigation water abstractions for bioenergy production: a systematic review. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2021, 25, 1711 -1726.

AMA Style

Fabian Stenzel, Dieter Gerten, Naota Hanasaki. Global scenarios of irrigation water abstractions for bioenergy production: a systematic review. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2021; 25 (4):1711-1726.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Fabian Stenzel; Dieter Gerten; Naota Hanasaki. 2021. "Global scenarios of irrigation water abstractions for bioenergy production: a systematic review." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 25, no. 4: 1711-1726.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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Droughts are anticipated to intensify or become more frequent in many parts of the world due to climate change. However, the issue of drought definition, namely the diversity of drought definition, makes it difficult to compare drought projections and hampers overviewing future changes in drought. This issue is widely known and underscored in recent reports of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, but the relative importance of the issue and its spatial distribution have never been quantitatively evaluated compared to other sources of uncertainty.

Here, using a multi-scenario and multi-model dataset with combinations of three climate change scenarios, four global climate models and seven global water models, we evaluated changes in the frequency of three categories of drought (meteorological, agricultural, and hydrological droughts) by a consistent standardized approach with four different temporal scales of accumulation periods to show how differences among the drought definitions could result in critical uncertainties. For simplicity, this study focuses on one drought index per drought category. Firstly we investigated the disagreement in the sign of changes between definitions, and then we decomposed the overall uncertainty to estimate the relative importance of each source of uncertainty. By a multifactorial ANOVA, uncertainty was decomposed into four main factors, namely drought definitions, climate change scenarios, global climate models and global water impact models, and their interactions.

Our results highlight specific regions where the sign of change disagrees between drought definitions. Importantly, changes in drought frequency in such regions tended to be statistically insignificant with low ensemble member agreement. Drought definition attributed to18% of the main factor uncertainty at the global scale, and the definition was the dominant uncertainty source over 11% of the global land area. The contribution of difference in the drought category showed a higher contribution to overall uncertainty than the difference in scales. The contribution of scenario uncertainty was the least among the main factors in general, though it is a dominant factor in the far-future in a couple of hotspot regions such as the Mediterranean region. Overall, model uncertainties were the primary source of uncertainty, and the definition issue was less important over large areas. However, definition uncertainty was the primal uncertainty source with significant changes in particular regions, such as parts of high-latitude areas in the northern hemisphere. One needs to pay attention to these regions in overviewing future drought change. Nonetheless, what this study quantified is the relative importance of uncertainty stemming from drought definition that should be avoidable or reducible if one treats drought specifically. Our results indicate that we can reduce uncertainty in drought projections to some extent and get a clearer picture by clarifying hydrological processes or sectors of interest.

ACS Style

Yusuke Satoh; Hideo Shiogama; Naota Hanasaki; Yadu Pokhrel; Julien Boulange; Peter Burek; Simon Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Hannes Schmied; Wim Thiery; Tokuta Yokohata. Decomposing the uncertainties in global drought projection. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Yusuke Satoh, Hideo Shiogama, Naota Hanasaki, Yadu Pokhrel, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Simon Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Hannes Schmied, Wim Thiery, Tokuta Yokohata. Decomposing the uncertainties in global drought projection. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yusuke Satoh; Hideo Shiogama; Naota Hanasaki; Yadu Pokhrel; Julien Boulange; Peter Burek; Simon Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Hannes Schmied; Wim Thiery; Tokuta Yokohata. 2021. "Decomposing the uncertainties in global drought projection." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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Flood diversion canals play a crucial role in assuaging the flood risk by diverting water from the main channel to the nearby rivers, downstream of the same river, or the ocean. For the impact assessment of such canal systems on river discharge worldwide, their explicit inclusion into the global hydrological models (GHMs) is necessary. Despite this fact, such representation is limited due to their complex operations and lack of data. Therefore, we aim to propose a generalized scheme for the flood water diversion in the H08 GHM that ideally requires the universal parameters only. In this scheme, if the discharge exceeds the channel capacity, an amount equivalent to canal capacity is diverted to the canal, which will then flow to the retention ponds, and finally to the destination once the retention ponds get full. A regionalized scheme with site-specific parameters was also considered to evaluate the validity of the simulations.

The proposed scheme was tested in the upper Chao Phraya River basin, which is characterized by four tributaries of Ping, Wang, Yom, and Nan. The government has implemented Yom-Nan canal system to divert water from Yom to Nan River since 2014 to alleviate flooding in the lower Yom basin. The effect of this canal system was analyzed from 1980-2004 using the H08 model with the generalized scheme as well as the regionalized scheme. The simulations showed that the total flood water diverted from the Yom River was around 1.00 km3/year and 1.64 km3/year under the generalized and regionalized schemes, respectively, over the 25 years. This constitutes about 2.62% and 4.29% of the river discharge in the Yom River at the diversion point. In both simulations, nearly 30% of the water has been diverted to the Nan River and the remaining 70% was stored in the retention ponds. To assess the validity of the simulations, we compared the simulation results of the wet water-year 1994 with the observed canal operation data of the wet water-year 2017. The total flood water diverted was around 0.47 km3/year during the year 2017, whereas the same for 1994 was about 0.17 km3/year and 0.48 km3/year under the generalized and regionalized schemes, respectively. This shows that the regionalized simulations are close to the observations, while the generalized simulations reproduced nearly half of the diverted canal flow. The generalized simulations can be further improved by parameterizations.

ACS Style

Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan; Naota Hanasaki. Implementation of flood diversion canals and retention ponds to the H08 global hydrological model for flood management. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan, Naota Hanasaki. Implementation of flood diversion canals and retention ponds to the H08 global hydrological model for flood management. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Saritha Padiyedath Gopalan; Naota Hanasaki. 2021. "Implementation of flood diversion canals and retention ponds to the H08 global hydrological model for flood management." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) plays a critical role in many stringent scenarios targeting the 2°C goal. Although irrigation is considered a promising way to enhance BECCS potential while reducing the land requirement, it is still unknown where and to what extent it can enhance the global BECCS potential in view of sustainable water use. Based on integrated hydrological simulations, we found that sustainable irrigation without intervention in water usage for other sectors and refrain from exploiting nonrenewable water sources enhanced BECCS potential by only 5–6% (much smaller than 60–71% for unlimited irrigation) above the rainfed potential by the end of this century. Nonetheless, it adds limited additional water withdrawal (166–298 km3 yr-1, corresponding to only 4–7% of the current total withdrawal) compared to that with unlimited irrigation (1392–3929 km3 yr-1, corresponding to 35–98% of the current total withdrawal).

ACS Style

Zhipin Ai; Naota Hanasaki. How would irrigation enhance the global BECCS potential in view of sustainable water use? 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki. How would irrigation enhance the global BECCS potential in view of sustainable water use? . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhipin Ai; Naota Hanasaki. 2021. "How would irrigation enhance the global BECCS potential in view of sustainable water use?" , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 04 March 2021
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Flood risk was reported to increase in the future due to climate change and population growth. While recent and earlier studies have derived plausible climate change impacts on global flood risk, dams have never been explicitly implemented into simulation tools. Currently, about half of major river systems worldwide are regulated by dams and more than 3,700 major dams are planned or under construction. Consequently, to realistically assess population exposure to present and future floods, current and future dam landscapes must be integrated into existing flood modeling frameworks.

In this research, the role of dams on future flood risk under climate change is quantified by simulating the global hydrological cycle, including floodplain dynamics, and considering flow regulation by dams.

 

The global population exposed to historical once-in-100-year floods in our simulation was 9.4 million people, relatively close to the estimate of 5.6 million people indicated in a previous study (Hirabayashi et al., 2013) and the Dartmouth Flood Observatory database which estimated this number as 11.9 million people. Downstream of dams, the number of people exposed to the historical once-in-100-year floods were 7.2 and 13.4 million on average over 2006–2099 given a low and a medium-high greenhouse gas emission trajectory (RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, respectively). By the end of the 21st century, the populations exposed to flooding below dams decreased on average by 20.6% and 12. 9% for the two trajectories compared to simulations not accounting for the flow regulations produced by dams.

At the catchment scale, by considering water regulation in densely populated and heavily water regulated catchments, the occurrence of flood events largely decreases compared to projections not accounting for water regulation. Over the 2070–2099 period and for 14 catchments, the annual flooded area shrank by, on average (first and third quartiles given in bracket), 22.5% (19.8–40.5) and 25.9% (12.1–34.5) for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 respectively.

To maintain the levels of flood protection that dams have provided, new dam operations will be required to offset the effect of climate change, possibly negatively affecting energy production and water storage. In addition, precise and reliable hydro-meteorological forecasts will be invaluable for enhancing flood protection and avoid excessive outflows. Given the many negative environmental and social impacts of dams, comprehensive assessments that consider both potential benefits and adverse effects are necessary for the sustainable development of water resources.

ACS Style

Julien Boulange; Naota Hanasaki; Dai Yamazaki; Yadu Pokhrel. Quantifying the effect of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change. 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Julien Boulange, Naota Hanasaki, Dai Yamazaki, Yadu Pokhrel. Quantifying the effect of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change. . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Julien Boulange; Naota Hanasaki; Dai Yamazaki; Yadu Pokhrel. 2021. "Quantifying the effect of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change." , no. : 1.

Journal article
Published: 19 February 2021 in Hydrology and Earth System Sciences
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Billions of people rely on groundwater as being an accessible source of drinking water and for irrigation, especially in times of drought. Its importance will likely increase with a changing climate. It is still unclear, however, how climate change will impact groundwater systems globally and, thus, the availability of this vital resource. Groundwater recharge is an important indicator for groundwater availability, but it is a water flux that is difficult to estimate as uncertainties in the water balance accumulate, leading to possibly large errors in particular in dry regions. This study investigates uncertainties in groundwater recharge projections using a multi-model ensemble of eight global hydrological models (GHMs) that are driven by the bias-adjusted output of four global circulation models (GCMs). Pre-industrial and current groundwater recharge values are compared with recharge for different global warming (GW) levels as a result of three representative concentration pathways (RCPs). Results suggest that projected changes strongly vary among the different GHM–GCM combinations, and statistically significant changes are only computed for a few regions of the world. Statistically significant GWR increases are projected for northern Europe and some parts of the Arctic, East Africa, and India. Statistically significant decreases are simulated in southern Chile, parts of Brazil, central USA, the Mediterranean, and southeastern China. In some regions, reversals of groundwater recharge trends can be observed with global warming. Because most GHMs do not simulate the impact of changing atmospheric CO2 and climate on vegetation and, thus, evapotranspiration, we investigate how estimated changes in GWR are affected by the inclusion of these processes. In some regions, inclusion leads to differences in groundwater recharge changes of up to 100 mm per year. Most GHMs with active vegetation simulate less severe decreases in groundwater recharge than GHMs without active vegetation and, in some regions, even increases instead of decreases are simulated. However, in regions where GCMs predict decreases in precipitation and where groundwater availability is the most important, model agreement among GHMs with active vegetation is the lowest. Overall, large uncertainties in the model outcomes suggest that additional research on simulating groundwater processes in GHMs is necessary.

ACS Style

Robert Reinecke; Hannes Müller Schmied; Tim Trautmann; Lauren Seaby Andersen; Peter Burek; Martina Flörke; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Naota Hanasaki; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Yadu Pokhrel; Wim Thiery; Yoshihide Wada; Satoh Yusuke; Petra Döll. Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 2021, 25, 787 -810.

AMA Style

Robert Reinecke, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tim Trautmann, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Peter Burek, Martina Flörke, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Satoh Yusuke, Petra Döll. Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study. Hydrology and Earth System Sciences. 2021; 25 (2):787-810.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Robert Reinecke; Hannes Müller Schmied; Tim Trautmann; Lauren Seaby Andersen; Peter Burek; Martina Flörke; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Naota Hanasaki; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Yadu Pokhrel; Wim Thiery; Yoshihide Wada; Satoh Yusuke; Petra Döll. 2021. "Uncertainty of simulated groundwater recharge at different global warming levels: a global-scale multi-model ensemble study." Hydrology and Earth System Sciences 25, no. 2: 787-810.

Letter
Published: 26 January 2021 in Environmental Research Letters
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Water scarcity threatens people in various regions, and has predominantly been studied from a water quantity perspective only. Here we show that global water scarcity is driven by both water quantity and water quality issues, and quantify expansions in clean water technologies (i.e. desalination and treated wastewater reuse) to 'reduce the number of people suffering from water scarcity' as urgently required by UN's Sustainable Development Goal 6. Including water quality (i.e. water temperature, salinity, organic pollution and nutrients) contributes to an increase in percentage of world's population currently suffering from severe water scarcity from an annual average of 30% (22%–35% monthly range; water quantity only) to 40% (31%–46%; both water quantity and quality). Water quality impacts are in particular high in severe water scarcity regions, such as in eastern China and India. In these regions, excessive sectoral water withdrawals do not only contribute to water scarcity from a water quantity perspective, but polluted return flows degrade water quality, exacerbating water scarcity. We show that expanding desalination (from 2.9 to 13.6 billion m3 month−1) and treated wastewater uses (from 1.6 to 4.0 billion m3 month−1) can strongly reduce water scarcity levels and the number of people affected, especially in Asia, although the side effects (e.g. brine, energy demand, economic costs) must be considered. The presented results have potential for follow-up integrated analyses accounting for technical and economic constraints of expanding desalination and treated wastewater reuse across the world.

ACS Style

Michelle T H Van Vliet; Edward R Jones; Martina Flörke; Wietse H P Franssen; Naota Hanasaki; Yoshihide Wada; John R Yearsley. Global water scarcity including surface water quality and expansions of clean water technologies. Environmental Research Letters 2021, 16, 024020 .

AMA Style

Michelle T H Van Vliet, Edward R Jones, Martina Flörke, Wietse H P Franssen, Naota Hanasaki, Yoshihide Wada, John R Yearsley. Global water scarcity including surface water quality and expansions of clean water technologies. Environmental Research Letters. 2021; 16 (2):024020.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Michelle T H Van Vliet; Edward R Jones; Martina Flörke; Wietse H P Franssen; Naota Hanasaki; Yoshihide Wada; John R Yearsley. 2021. "Global water scarcity including surface water quality and expansions of clean water technologies." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 2: 024020.

Journal article
Published: 18 January 2021 in Nature Communications
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Globally, flood risk is projected to increase in the future due to climate change and population growth. Here, we quantify the role of dams in flood mitigation, previously unaccounted for in global flood studies, by simulating the floodplain dynamics and flow regulation by dams. We show that, ignoring flow regulation by dams, the average number of people exposed to flooding below dams amount to 9.1 and 15.3 million per year, by the end of the 21st century (holding population constant), for the representative concentration pathway (RCP) 2.6 and 6.0, respectively. Accounting for dams reduces the number of people exposed to floods by 20.6 and 12.9% (for RCP2.6 and RCP6.0, respectively). While environmental problems caused by dams warrant further investigations, our results indicate that consideration of dams significantly affect the estimation of future population exposure to flood, emphasizing the need to integrate them in model-based impact analysis of climate change.

ACS Style

Julien Boulange; Naota Hanasaki; Dai Yamazaki; Yadu Pokhrel. Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change. Nature Communications 2021, 12, 1 -7.

AMA Style

Julien Boulange, Naota Hanasaki, Dai Yamazaki, Yadu Pokhrel. Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change. Nature Communications. 2021; 12 (1):1-7.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Julien Boulange; Naota Hanasaki; Dai Yamazaki; Yadu Pokhrel. 2021. "Role of dams in reducing global flood exposure under climate change." Nature Communications 12, no. 1: 1-7.

Journal article
Published: 11 January 2021 in Nature Climate Change
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Terrestrial water storage (TWS) modulates the hydrological cycle and is a key determinant of water availability and an indicator of drought. While historical TWS variations have been increasingly studied, future changes in TWS and the linkages to droughts remain unexamined. Here, using ensemble hydrological simulations, we show that climate change could reduce TWS in many regions, especially those in the Southern Hemisphere. Strong inter-ensemble agreement indicates high confidence in the projected changes that are driven primarily by climate forcing rather than land and water management activities. Declines in TWS translate to increases in future droughts. By the late twenty-first century, the global land area and population in extreme-to-exceptional TWS drought could more than double, each increasing from 3% during 1976–2005 to 7% and 8%, respectively. Our findings highlight the importance of climate change mitigation to avoid adverse TWS impacts and increased droughts, and the need for improved water resource management and adaptation. Projections of terrestrial water storage (TWS)—the sum of all continental water—are key to water resource and drought estimates. A hydrological model ensemble predicts climate warming will more than double the land area and population exposed to extreme TWS drought by the late twenty-first century.

ACS Style

Yadu Pokhrel; Farshid Felfelani; Yusuke Satoh; Julien Boulange; Peter Burek; Anne Gädeke; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Lukas Gudmundsson; Naota Hanasaki; Hyungjun Kim; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Junguo Liu; Lamprini Papadimitriou; Jacob Schewe; Hannes Müller Schmied; Tobias Stacke; Camelia-Eliza Telteu; Wim Thiery; Ted Veldkamp; Fang Zhao; Yoshihide Wada. Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change. Nature Climate Change 2021, 11, 226 -233.

AMA Style

Yadu Pokhrel, Farshid Felfelani, Yusuke Satoh, Julien Boulange, Peter Burek, Anne Gädeke, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Lukas Gudmundsson, Naota Hanasaki, Hyungjun Kim, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Junguo Liu, Lamprini Papadimitriou, Jacob Schewe, Hannes Müller Schmied, Tobias Stacke, Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Wim Thiery, Ted Veldkamp, Fang Zhao, Yoshihide Wada. Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change. Nature Climate Change. 2021; 11 (3):226-233.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yadu Pokhrel; Farshid Felfelani; Yusuke Satoh; Julien Boulange; Peter Burek; Anne Gädeke; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Lukas Gudmundsson; Naota Hanasaki; Hyungjun Kim; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Junguo Liu; Lamprini Papadimitriou; Jacob Schewe; Hannes Müller Schmied; Tobias Stacke; Camelia-Eliza Telteu; Wim Thiery; Ted Veldkamp; Fang Zhao; Yoshihide Wada. 2021. "Global terrestrial water storage and drought severity under climate change." Nature Climate Change 11, no. 3: 226-233.

Preprint content
Published: 08 January 2021
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ACS Style

Camelia-Eliza Telteu; Hannes Müller Schmied; Wim Thiery; Guoyong Leng; Peter Burek; Xingcai Liu; Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange; Lauren Seaby Andersen; Manolis Grillakis; Simon Newland Gosling; Yusuke Satoh; Oldrich Rakovec; Tobias Stacke; Jinfeng Chang; Niko Wanders; Harsh Lovekumar Shah; Tim Trautmann; Ganquan Mao; Naota Hanasaki; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Yadu Pokhrel; Luis Samaniego; Yoshihide Wada; Vimal Mishra; Junguo Liu; Petra Döll; Fang Zhao; Anne Gädeke; Sam Rabin; Florian Herz. Supplementary material to "Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication". 2021, 1 .

AMA Style

Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam Rabin, Florian Herz. Supplementary material to "Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication". . 2021; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Camelia-Eliza Telteu; Hannes Müller Schmied; Wim Thiery; Guoyong Leng; Peter Burek; Xingcai Liu; Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange; Lauren Seaby Andersen; Manolis Grillakis; Simon Newland Gosling; Yusuke Satoh; Oldrich Rakovec; Tobias Stacke; Jinfeng Chang; Niko Wanders; Harsh Lovekumar Shah; Tim Trautmann; Ganquan Mao; Naota Hanasaki; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Yadu Pokhrel; Luis Samaniego; Yoshihide Wada; Vimal Mishra; Junguo Liu; Petra Döll; Fang Zhao; Anne Gädeke; Sam Rabin; Florian Herz. 2021. "Supplementary material to "Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication"." , no. : 1.

Preprint content
Published: 08 January 2021
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Global water models (GWMs) simulate the terrestrial water cycle, on the global scale, and are used to assess the impacts of climate change on freshwater systems. GWMs are developed within different modeling frameworks and consider different underlying hydrological processes, leading to varied model structures. Furthermore, the equations used to describe various processes take different forms and are generally accessible only from within the individual model codes. These factors have hindered a holistic and detailed understanding of how different models operate, yet such an understanding is crucial for explaining the results of model evaluation studies, understanding inter-model differences in their simulations, and identifying areas for future model development. This study provides a comprehensive overview of how state-of-the-art GWMs are designed. We analyze water storage compartments, water flows, and human water use sectors included in 16 GWMs that provide simulations for the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b (ISIMIP2b). We develop a standard writing style for the model equations to further enhance model improvement, intercomparison, and communication. In this study, WaterGAP2 used the highest number of water storage compartments, 11, and CWatM used 10 compartments. Seven models used six compartments, while three models (JULES-W1, Mac-PDM.20, and VIC) used the lowest number, three compartments. WaterGAP2 simulates five human water use sectors, while four models (CLM4.5, CLM5.0, LPJmL, and MPI-HM) simulate only water used by humans for the irrigation sector. We conclude that even though hydrologic processes are often based on similar equations, in the end, these equations have been adjusted or have used different values for specific parameters or specific variables. Our results highlight that the predictive uncertainty of GWMs can be reduced through improvements of the existing hydrologic processes, implementation of new processes in the models, and high-quality input data.

ACS Style

Camelia-Eliza Telteu; Hannes Müller Schmied; Wim Thiery; Guoyong Leng; Peter Burek; Xingcai Liu; Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange; Lauren Seaby Andersen; Manolis Grillakis; Simon Newland Gosling; Yusuke Satoh; Oldrich Rakovec; Tobias Stacke; Jinfeng Chang; Niko Wanders; Harsh Lovekumar Shah; Tim Trautmann; Ganquan Mao; Naota Hanasaki; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Yadu Pokhrel; Luis Samaniego; Yoshihide Wada; Vimal Mishra; Junguo Liu; Petra Döll; Fang Zhao; Anne Gädeke; Sam Rabin; Florian Herz. Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication. 2021, 2021, 1 -56.

AMA Style

Camelia-Eliza Telteu, Hannes Müller Schmied, Wim Thiery, Guoyong Leng, Peter Burek, Xingcai Liu, Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange, Lauren Seaby Andersen, Manolis Grillakis, Simon Newland Gosling, Yusuke Satoh, Oldrich Rakovec, Tobias Stacke, Jinfeng Chang, Niko Wanders, Harsh Lovekumar Shah, Tim Trautmann, Ganquan Mao, Naota Hanasaki, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Yadu Pokhrel, Luis Samaniego, Yoshihide Wada, Vimal Mishra, Junguo Liu, Petra Döll, Fang Zhao, Anne Gädeke, Sam Rabin, Florian Herz. Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication. . 2021; 2021 ():1-56.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Camelia-Eliza Telteu; Hannes Müller Schmied; Wim Thiery; Guoyong Leng; Peter Burek; Xingcai Liu; Julien Eric Stanislas Boulange; Lauren Seaby Andersen; Manolis Grillakis; Simon Newland Gosling; Yusuke Satoh; Oldrich Rakovec; Tobias Stacke; Jinfeng Chang; Niko Wanders; Harsh Lovekumar Shah; Tim Trautmann; Ganquan Mao; Naota Hanasaki; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Yadu Pokhrel; Luis Samaniego; Yoshihide Wada; Vimal Mishra; Junguo Liu; Petra Döll; Fang Zhao; Anne Gädeke; Sam Rabin; Florian Herz. 2021. "Understanding each other's models: a standard representation of global water models to support improvement, intercomparison, and communication." 2021, no. : 1-56.

Development and technical paper
Published: 02 December 2020 in Geoscientific Model Development
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Large-scale deployment of bioenergy plantations would have adverse effects on water resources. There is an increasing need to ensure the appropriate inclusion of the bioenergy crops in global hydrological models. Here, through parameter calibration and algorithm improvement, we enhanced the global hydrological model H08 to simulate the bioenergy yield from two dedicated herbaceous bioenergy crops: Miscanthus and switchgrass. Site-specific evaluations showed that the enhanced model had the ability to simulate yield for both Miscanthus and switchgrass, with the calibrated yields being well within the ranges of the observed yield. Independent country-specific evaluations further confirmed the performance of the H08 (v.bio1). Using this improved model, we found that unconstrained irrigation more than doubled the yield under rainfed condition, but reduced the water use efficiency (WUE) by 32 % globally. With irrigation, the yield in dry climate zones can exceed the rainfed yields in tropical climate zones. Nevertheless, due to the low water consumption in tropical areas, the highest WUE was found in tropical climate zones, regardless of whether the crop was irrigated. Our enhanced model provides a new tool for the future assessment of bioenergy–water tradeoffs.

ACS Style

Zhipin Ai; Naota Hanasaki; Vera Heck; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori. Simulating second-generation herbaceous bioenergy crop yield using the global hydrological model H08 (v.bio1). Geoscientific Model Development 2020, 13, 6077 -6092.

AMA Style

Zhipin Ai, Naota Hanasaki, Vera Heck, Tomoko Hasegawa, Shinichiro Fujimori. Simulating second-generation herbaceous bioenergy crop yield using the global hydrological model H08 (v.bio1). Geoscientific Model Development. 2020; 13 (12):6077-6092.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Zhipin Ai; Naota Hanasaki; Vera Heck; Tomoko Hasegawa; Shinichiro Fujimori. 2020. "Simulating second-generation herbaceous bioenergy crop yield using the global hydrological model H08 (v.bio1)." Geoscientific Model Development 13, no. 12: 6077-6092.

Review
Published: 27 November 2020 in Environmental Research Letters
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Thailand plays a central economic and policy-making role in Southeast Asia. Although climate change adaptation is being mainstreamed in Thailand, a well-organized overview of the impacts of climate change and potential adaptation measures has been unavailable to date. Here we present a comprehensive review of climate-change impact studies that focused on the Thai water sector, based on a literature review of six sub-sectors: riverine hydrology, sediment erosion, coastal erosion, forest hydrology, agricultural hydrology, and urban hydrology. Our review examined the long-term availability of observational data, historical changes, projected changes in key variables, and the availability of economic assessments and their implications for adaptation actions. Although some basic hydrometeorological variables have been well monitored, specific historical changes due to climate change have seldom been detected. Furthermore, although numerous future projections have been proposed, the likely changes due to climate change remain unclear due to a general lack of systematic multi-model and multi-scenario assessments and limited spatiotemporal coverage of the study area. Several gaps in the research were identified, and 10 research recommendations are presented. While the information contained herein contributes to state-of-the-art knowledge on the impact of climate change on the water sector in Thailand, it will also benefit other countries on the Indochina Peninsula with a similar climate.

ACS Style

Masashi Kiguchi; Kumiko Takata; Naota Hanasaki; Boonlert Archevarahuprok; Adisorn Champathong; Eiji Ikoma; Chaiporn Jaikaeo; Sudsaisin Kaewrueng; Shinjiro Kanae; So Kazama; Koichiro Kuraji; Kyoko Matsumoto; Shinichiro Nakamura; Dzung Nguyen-Le; Keigo Noda; Napaporn Piamsa-Nga; Mongkol Raksapatcharawong; Prem Rangsiwanichpong; Sompratana Ritphring; Hiroaki Shirakawa; Chatuphorn Somphong; Mallika Srisutham; Desell Suanburi; Weerakaset Suanpaga; Taichi Tebakari; Yongyut Trisurat; Keiko Udo; Sanit Wongsa; Tomohito J. Yamada; Koshi Yoshida; Thanya Kiatiwat; Taikan Oki. A review of climate-change impact and adaptation studies for the water sector in Thailand. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 16, 023004 .

AMA Style

Masashi Kiguchi, Kumiko Takata, Naota Hanasaki, Boonlert Archevarahuprok, Adisorn Champathong, Eiji Ikoma, Chaiporn Jaikaeo, Sudsaisin Kaewrueng, Shinjiro Kanae, So Kazama, Koichiro Kuraji, Kyoko Matsumoto, Shinichiro Nakamura, Dzung Nguyen-Le, Keigo Noda, Napaporn Piamsa-Nga, Mongkol Raksapatcharawong, Prem Rangsiwanichpong, Sompratana Ritphring, Hiroaki Shirakawa, Chatuphorn Somphong, Mallika Srisutham, Desell Suanburi, Weerakaset Suanpaga, Taichi Tebakari, Yongyut Trisurat, Keiko Udo, Sanit Wongsa, Tomohito J. Yamada, Koshi Yoshida, Thanya Kiatiwat, Taikan Oki. A review of climate-change impact and adaptation studies for the water sector in Thailand. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 16 (2):023004.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Masashi Kiguchi; Kumiko Takata; Naota Hanasaki; Boonlert Archevarahuprok; Adisorn Champathong; Eiji Ikoma; Chaiporn Jaikaeo; Sudsaisin Kaewrueng; Shinjiro Kanae; So Kazama; Koichiro Kuraji; Kyoko Matsumoto; Shinichiro Nakamura; Dzung Nguyen-Le; Keigo Noda; Napaporn Piamsa-Nga; Mongkol Raksapatcharawong; Prem Rangsiwanichpong; Sompratana Ritphring; Hiroaki Shirakawa; Chatuphorn Somphong; Mallika Srisutham; Desell Suanburi; Weerakaset Suanpaga; Taichi Tebakari; Yongyut Trisurat; Keiko Udo; Sanit Wongsa; Tomohito J. Yamada; Koshi Yoshida; Thanya Kiatiwat; Taikan Oki. 2020. "A review of climate-change impact and adaptation studies for the water sector in Thailand." Environmental Research Letters 16, no. 2: 023004.

Journal article
Published: 26 November 2020 in Earth's Future
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The extent and impact of climate‐related extreme events depend on the underlying meteorological, hydrological, or climatological drivers as well as on human factors such as land use or population density. Here we quantify the pure effect of historical and future climate change on the exposure of land and population to extreme climate impact events using an unprecedentedly large ensemble of harmonized climate impact simulations from the Inter‐Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project phase 2b. Our results indicate that global warming has already more than doubled both the global land area and the global population annually exposed to all six categories of extreme events considered: river floods, tropical cyclones, crop failure, wildfires, droughts, and heatwaves. Global warming of 2°C relative to preindustrial conditions is projected to lead to a more than five‐fold increase in cross‐category aggregate exposure globally. Changes in exposure are unevenly distributed, with tropical and subtropical regions facing larger increases than higher latitudes. The largest increases in overall exposure are projected for the population of South Asia.

ACS Style

Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Tobias Geiger; Fang Zhao; Iliusi Vega; Ted Veldkamp; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Lila Warszawski; Veronika Huber; Jonas Jägermeyr; Jacob Schewe; David N. Bresch; Matthias Büchner; Jinfeng Chang; Philippe Ciais; Marie Dury; Kerry Emanuel; Christian Folberth; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Naota Hanasaki; Alexandra‐Jane Henrot; Thomas Hickler; Yasushi Honda; Akihiko Ito; Nikolay Khabarov; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Wenfeng Liu; Christoph Müller; Kazuya Nishina; Sebastian Ostberg; Hannes Müller Schmied; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Tobias Stacke; Jörg Steinkamp; Wim Thiery; Yoshihide Wada; Sven Willner; Hong Yang; Minoru Yoshikawa; Chao Yue; Katja Frieler. Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth's Future 2020, 8, 1 .

AMA Style

Stefan Lange, Jan Volkholz, Tobias Geiger, Fang Zhao, Iliusi Vega, Ted Veldkamp, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Lila Warszawski, Veronika Huber, Jonas Jägermeyr, Jacob Schewe, David N. Bresch, Matthias Büchner, Jinfeng Chang, Philippe Ciais, Marie Dury, Kerry Emanuel, Christian Folberth, Dieter Gerten, Simon N. Gosling, Manolis Grillakis, Naota Hanasaki, Alexandra‐Jane Henrot, Thomas Hickler, Yasushi Honda, Akihiko Ito, Nikolay Khabarov, Aristeidis Koutroulis, Wenfeng Liu, Christoph Müller, Kazuya Nishina, Sebastian Ostberg, Hannes Müller Schmied, Sonia I. Seneviratne, Tobias Stacke, Jörg Steinkamp, Wim Thiery, Yoshihide Wada, Sven Willner, Hong Yang, Minoru Yoshikawa, Chao Yue, Katja Frieler. Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales. Earth's Future. 2020; 8 (12):1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Stefan Lange; Jan Volkholz; Tobias Geiger; Fang Zhao; Iliusi Vega; Ted Veldkamp; Christopher P. O. Reyer; Lila Warszawski; Veronika Huber; Jonas Jägermeyr; Jacob Schewe; David N. Bresch; Matthias Büchner; Jinfeng Chang; Philippe Ciais; Marie Dury; Kerry Emanuel; Christian Folberth; Dieter Gerten; Simon N. Gosling; Manolis Grillakis; Naota Hanasaki; Alexandra‐Jane Henrot; Thomas Hickler; Yasushi Honda; Akihiko Ito; Nikolay Khabarov; Aristeidis Koutroulis; Wenfeng Liu; Christoph Müller; Kazuya Nishina; Sebastian Ostberg; Hannes Müller Schmied; Sonia I. Seneviratne; Tobias Stacke; Jörg Steinkamp; Wim Thiery; Yoshihide Wada; Sven Willner; Hong Yang; Minoru Yoshikawa; Chao Yue; Katja Frieler. 2020. "Projecting Exposure to Extreme Climate Impact Events Across Six Event Categories and Three Spatial Scales." Earth's Future 8, no. 12: 1.