Accurate river discharge forecasting remains a critical challenge in hydrology, particularly in data-scarce mountainous regions where in situ observations are limited. This study investigated the potential of long short-term memory (LSTM) networks to improve discharge prediction by leveraging spatially distributed reanalysis data. Using the ERA5-Land dataset, we developed an LSTM model that integrates grid-based meteorological inputs and assesses their relative importance. We conducted experiments on two snow-dominated basins with contrasting physiographic characteristics, the Uba River basin in Kazakhstan and the Flathead River basin in the USA, to answer three research questions: (1) whether full-grid input outperforms reduced configurations and models trained on Caravan, (2) the impact of spatial resolution on accuracy and efficiency, and (3) the effect of partial spatial coverage on prediction reliability. Specifically, we compared the full-grid LSTM with a single-cell LSTM, a basin-average LSTM, a Caravan-trained LSTM, and coarser cell aggregations. The results demonstrate that the full-grid LSTM consistently yields the highest forecasting performance, achieving a median Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency of 0.905 for Uba and 0.93 for Middle Fork Flathead, while using coarser grids and random subsets reduces performance. Our findings highlight the critical importance of spatial input richness and provide a reproducible framework for grid selection in flood-prone basins lacking dense observation networks.
In this work, we present the Snow Depth and Snow Water Equivalent Dataset for specific areas located in the East Kazakhstan Region that can be exploited to monitor and understand water resource dynamics in mountain regions. The present dataset represents a georeferenced collection of snow depth, snow density, and derived snow water equivalent (SWE) measurements obtained through manual snow surveys. Snow survey observations were conducted during field campaigns in the East Kazakhstan Region during the period of maximum snow accumulation from 27 February to 6 March 2025. Snow survey sites were selected to maximize coverage of diverse landscape settings and snow accumulation conditions. In total, 111 snow survey sites were established across the East Kazakhstan Region, and 2331 snow depth measurements and 555 snow density measurements were collected. In post-field (laboratory) processing, snow water equivalent (SWE) was calculated for all snow survey sites based on measured snow depth and snow density values.
30 September 2024 in Scientific Journal of Astana IT University
Floods are among the most frequent and devastating natural disasters, causing significant economic damage and loss of life worldwide. Effective flood risk management relies on accurate modeling techniques that can predict vulnerable areas and assess potential impacts. In this study, flood dynamics are simulated in the Irtysh River Basin near Ust-Kamenogorsk, a city in East Kazakhstan prone to seasonal flooding using high-resolution satellite imagery and digital elevation data. The primary objective is to visually model flood risks based on terrain characteristics. The study utilizes imagery sourced from the Mapbox platform, which combines data from MODIS, Landsat 7, Maxar, and the Google Earth Engine, providing access to Sentinel-2 surface reflectance imagery at 10-meter resolution. Elevation data from the Copernicus global digital elevation model, with a 30-meter resolution, is used to simulate flood progression. The flood simulation involves calculating flood depth relative to the terrain’s elevation, allowing for a pixel-by-pixel determination of submerged areas. Each simulation incrementally increases water levels to generate a sequence of images, showcasing the progression of flooding over time. The study describes hydraulic soil characteristics usage, and focuses on visualizing flood risk based on terrain data and water level changes. The simulation results indicate that flooding initially impacts riverbanks as water flow starts from the northwest of the city with critical infrastructure becoming vulnerable once water levels exceed 2 meters from the lowest elevation point. These findings highlight the potential of high-resolution satellite imagery and terrain data for flood risk assessment and improving urban flood preparedness. The results provide valuable insights into flood progression enabling more informed decision-making for disaster mitigation.