Jilin Province is an important ecological security barrier and major grain-producing region in northeast China, playing a crucial role in ensuring ecological security and promoting regional sustainable development. This study examines ecological resilience from three dimensions: resistance, adaptability, and resilience. Based on multi-source data from 2000 to 2020, an ecological resilience indicator system was constructed. Spatial autocorrelation and OPGD models were employed to analyze temporal and spatial evolution and the driving mechanisms. The results indicate that ER exhibits an overall spatial pattern of “high in the east, low in the west, and under pressure in the central region.” The eastern mountainous areas demonstrate high and stable resilience, while the central plains and western ecologically fragile regions exhibit weaker resilience. In terms of resistance, the eastern mountainous regions are primarily forested, with high and sustained ESV, while the western sandy edge regions primarily have low ESV, making ecosystems susceptible to disturbance. In terms of adaptability, the large-scale farmland landscapes in the central regions exhibit strong disturbance resistance, while water resource adaptability in the western ecologically fragile regions has locally improved. However, adaptability in the eastern mountainous regions is relatively low due to development impacts. In terms of resilience, the eastern core regions possess stable recovery capabilities, while the central and western regions generally exhibit lower resistance with fluctuating changes. Between 2000 and 2020, the ecological resilience Moran’s I index slightly decreased from 0.558 to 0.554, with the spatial aggregation pattern remaining largely stable. Among the driving factors, DEM remains the most stable. The influence of NDVI has weakened, while temperature (TEM) and NPP-VIIRS have become more significant. Overall, factor interactions have grown stronger, as reflected by the q-value rising from 0.507 to 0.5605. This study provides theoretical support and decision-making references for enhancing regional ecological resilience, optimizing ecological spatial layout, and promoting sustainable ecosystem management.

Heilongjiang Province, a major grain-producing region in China, faces ecological vulnerabilities that directly affect its sustainable development. A scientific assessment of the spatiotemporal characteristics of ecological vulnerability and its influencing factors in Heilongjiang is crucial for a deeper understanding of environmental issues and provides theoretical support for enhancing regional ecological governance capabilities. The SRP model, combined with the AHP-CRITIC weighting method, was employed to assess Heilongjiang Province’s ecological vulnerability’s temporal and regional differentiation trends between 2000 and 2020. The aggregation kinds of ecological vulnerability were examined using spatial autocorrelation. GeoDetector was used to determine the main elements affecting ecological vulnerability in the province. Additionally, the ecological vulnerability status in 2030 was predicted using the CA-Markov model. The findings indicate that (1) the average EVI values for Heilongjiang Province during the three periods were 0.323, 0.317, and 0.347, respectively, indicating a medium level of ecological vulnerability across the province; the ecological vulnerability initially decreased and then worsened. Spatially, the distribution followed a pattern of “high in the east and west, and low in the north and south”. (2) Spatial agglomeration is evident, with high-high (H-H) aggregation primarily occurring in heavily and extremely vulnerable areas characterized by high human activity, while low–low (L-L) aggregation is mainly found in mildly and marginally vulnerable areas with a favorable natural background. (3) Biological abundance, net primary productivity, dry degree, and PM_2.5 were the main drivers of ecological vulnerability, with interactions between these factors amplifying their impact on ecological vulnerability. (4) The CA-Markov model prediction results indicated an upward trend in the overall ecological vulnerability of Heilongjiang Province by 2030, reflecting a decline in the ecological environment. The study indicates that the ecological vulnerability of Heilongjiang Province is closely linked to its natural geographic conditions and is influenced through the interplay of several environmental elements. Based on the vulnerability zoning results, this paper proposes governance recommendations for regions with different vulnerability levels, aiming to provide theoretical support for future ecological restoration and sustainable development.