Under China’s dual-carbon strategy, the construction sector still lacks a systematic quantitative view of what drives its shift to a circular economy. This study couples the Decision-Making Trial and Evaluation Laboratory (DEMATEL) with Total Adversarial Interpretive Structural Modeling (TAISM) to build a weighted, multi-layer model of the policy–market–organization–technology chain. DEMATEL measures causal strengths, and TAISM arranges the variables into five levels without subjective thresholds, revealing a five-stage activation pathway. Fiscal incentives and regulations start the cascade; market demand amplifies their effect into a “resonant resilience” mechanism that improves cost performance. Robustness tests show 87% hierarchy stability and causal variation within ±0.6%. Sensitivity checks indicate that policy support must supply at least 30% of total network weight, because market capital alone cannot meet circular-construction costs. A three-tier intervention—policy incentives, financial amplification, and digital decomposition via green finance, BIM, and material passports—is therefore recommended.