Climate change is increasing the frequency and severity of short-term (~1 y) drought events—the most common duration of drought—globally. Yet the impact of this intensification of drought on ecosystem functioning remains poorly resolved. This is due in part to the widely disparate approaches ecologists have employed to study drought, variation in the severity and duration of drought studied, and differences among ecosystems in vegetation, edaphic and climatic attributes that can mediate drought impacts. To overcome these problems and better identify the factors that modulate drought responses, we used a coordinated distributed experiment to quantify the impact of short-term drought on grassland and shrubland ecosystems. With a standardized approach, we imposed ~a single year of drought at 100 sites on six continents. Here we show that loss of a foundational ecosystem function—aboveground net primary production (ANPP)—was 60% greater at sites that experienced statistically extreme drought (1-in-100-y event) vs. those sites where drought was nominal (historically more common) in magnitude (35% vs. 21%, respectively). This reduction in a key carbon cycle process with a single year of extreme drought greatly exceeds previously reported losses for grasslands and shrublands. Our global experiment also revealed high variability in drought response but that relative reductions in ANPP were greater in drier ecosystems and those with fewer plant species. Overall, our results demonstrate with unprecedented rigor that the global impacts of projected increases in drought severity have been significantly underestimated and that drier and less diverse sites are likely to be most vulnerable to extreme drought.

As droughts become longer and more intense, impacts on terrestrial primary productivity are expected to increase progressively. Yet, some ecosystems appear to acclimate to multiyear drought, with constant or diminishing reductions in productivity as drought duration increases. We quantified the combined effects of drought duration and intensity on aboveground productivity in 74 grasslands and shrublands distributed globally. Ecosystem acclimation with multiyear drought was observed overall, except when droughts were extreme (i.e., ≤1-in-100-year likelihood of occurrence). Productivity losses after four consecutive years of extreme drought increased by ~2.5-fold compared with those of the first year. These results portend a foundational shift in ecosystem behavior if drought duration and intensity increase, from maintenance of reduced functioning over time to progressive and profound losses of productivity when droughts are extreme.

Increasingly, land managers have attempted to use extreme prescribed fire as a method to address woody plant encroachment in savanna ecosystems. The effect that these fires have on herbaceous vegetation is poorly understood. We experimentally examined immediate (<24 hr) bud response of two dominant graminoids, a C₃ caespitose grass, Nassella leucotricha, and a C₄ stoloniferous grass, Hilaria belangeri, following fires of varying energy (J/m²) in a semiarid savanna in the Edwards Plateau ecoregion of Texas. Treatments included high‐ and low‐energy fires determined by contrasting fuel loading and a no burn (control) treatment. Belowground axillary buds were counted and their activities classified to determine immediate effects of fire energy on bud activity, dormancy, and mortality. High‐energy burns resulted in immediate mortality of N. leucotricha and H. belangeri buds (p < .05). Active buds decreased following high‐energy and low‐energy burns for both species (p < .05). In contrast, bud activity, dormancy, and mortality remained constant in the control. In the high‐energy treatment, 100% (n = 24) of N. leucotricha individuals resprouted while only 25% (n = 24) of H. belangeri individuals resprouted (p < .0001) 3 weeks following treatment application. Bud depths differed between species and may account for this divergence, with average bud depths for N. leucotricha 1.3 cm deeper than H. belangeri (p < .0001).Synthesis and applications: Our results suggest that fire energy directly affects bud activity and mortality through soil heating for these two species. It is imperative to understand how fire energy impacts the bud banks of grasses to better predict grass response to increased use of extreme prescribed fire in land management.

Japanese honeysuckle is one of the most aggressive invasive vines in forestlands of the southern United States. We analyzed field data collected by the U.S. Forest Service to identify potential determinants of invasion and to predict likelihood of further invasion under a variety of possible management strategies. Results of logistic regression, which classified 74% of the field plots correctly with regard to species presence and absence, indicated probability of invasion is correlated positively with adjacency to water bodies, temperature, site productivity, species diversity, and private land ownership, and is correlated negatively with slope, stand age, artificial regeneration, distance to the nearest road, and fire disturbance. Habitats most at risk to further invasion under current conditions occur throughout Mississippi, stretching northward across western Tennessee and western Kentucky, westward across southern Arkansas, eastward across north-central Alabama, and also occur in several counties scattered within Virginia. Invasion likelihoods could be increased by global climate change and reduced most by conversion to public land ownership, followed by artificial regeneration, and fire disturbance. While conversion of land ownership may not be feasible, this result suggests the opportunity for decreasing the likelihood of invasions on private lands via using selected management practices.

Rangelands worldwide have experienced significant shifts from grass-dominated to woody-plant dominated states over the past century. In North America, these shifts are largely driven by overgrazing and landscape-scale fire suppression. Such shifts reduce productivity for livestock, can have broad-scale impacts to biodiversity, and are often difficult to reverse. Restoring grass dominance often involves restoring fire as an ecological process. However, many resprouting woody plants persist following disturbance, including fire, by resprouting from protected buds, rendering fire ineffective for reducing resprouting woody plant density. Recent research has shown that extreme fire (high-energy fires during periods of water stress) may reduce resprouting capacity. This previous research did not examine whether high-energy fires alone would be sufficient to cause mortality. We created an experimental framework for assessing the "buds-protection-resources" hypothesis of resprouting persistence under different fire energies. In July-August 2018 we exposed 48 individuals of a dominant resprouting woody plant in the region, honey mesquite (Prosopis glandulosa), to two levels of fire energy (high and low) and root crown exposure (exposed vs unexposed) and evaluated resprouting capacity. We censused basal and epicormic resprouts for two years following treatment. Water stress was moderate for several months leading up to fires but low in subsequent years. Epicormic and basal buds were somewhat protected from low- and high-energy fire. However, epicormic buds were protected in very few mesquites subjected to high-energy fires. High-energy fires decreased survival, caused loss of apical dominance, and left residual dead stems, which may increase chances of mortality from future fires. Basal resprout numbers were reduced by high-energy fires, which may have additional implications for long-term mesquite survival. While the buds, protection, and resources components of resprouter persistence all played a role in resprouting, high-energy fire decreased mesquite survival and reduced resprouting. This suggests that high-energy fires affect persistence mechanisms to different extents than low-energy fires. In addition, high-energy fires during normal rainfall can have negative impacts on resprouting capacity; water stress is not a necessary precursor to honey mesquite mortality from high-energy fire.