The effectiveness of vaccines against COVID-19 on the individual level is well established. However, few studies have examined vaccine effectiveness against transmission. We used a chain binomial model to estimate the effectiveness of vaccination with BNT162b2 [Pfizer-BioNTech messenger RNA (mRNA)-based vaccine] against household transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Israel before and after emergence of the B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. Vaccination reduced susceptibility to infection by 89.4% [95% confidence interval (CI): 88.7 to 90.0%], whereas vaccine effectiveness against infectiousness given infection was 23.0% (95% CI: −11.3 to 46.7%) during days 10 to 90 after the second dose, before 1 June 2021. Total vaccine effectiveness was 91.8% (95% CI: 88.1 to 94.3%). However, vaccine effectiveness is reduced over time as a result of the combined effect of waning of immunity and emergence of the Delta variant.

Identifying periods of increased vulnerability during pregnancy to air pollution with respect to the development of adverse birth outcomes can improve understanding of possible mechanisms of disease development and provide guidelines for protection of the child. Exposure to air pollution during pregnancy is typically based on the residence at delivery, potentially resulting in exposure misclassification and biasing the estimation of critical windows. In this work, we determine the impact of maternal residential mobility during pregnancy on defining weekly exposure to PM₁₀ and the estimation of windows of susceptibility for term low birth weight utilizing birth cohort datasets from Connecticut (1988–2008) that include information on all residential addresses for each woman between conception and delivery. A simulation study is designed to investigate the impact of increasing levels of mobility on critical window identification. Increased PM₁₀ exposure during pregnancy weeks 16–18 is associated with an increased probability of term low birth weight. Ignoring residential mobility when defining weekly exposure has only minor impact on the identification of critical windows for PM₁₀ and term low birth weight in the data application and simulation study. Critical window identification is robust to exposure misclassification caused by ignoring residential mobility in these Connecticut birth cohorts.

Congregate settings may serve as institutional amplifiers of tuberculosis (TB) and multidrug-resistant tuberculosis (MDR-TB). We analyze spatial, epidemiological, and pathogen genetic data prospectively collected from neighborhoods surrounding a prison in Lima, Peru, where inmates experience a high risk of MDR-TB, to investigate the risk of spillover into the surrounding community. Using hierarchical Bayesian statistical modeling, we address three questions regarding the MDR-TB risk: (i) Does the excess risk observed among prisoners also extend outside the prison? (ii) If so, what is the magnitude, shape, and spatial range of this spillover effect? (iii) Is there evidence of additional transmission across the region? The region of spillover risk extends for 5.47 km outside of the prison (95% credible interval: 1.38, 9.63 km). Within this spillover region, we find that nine of the 467 non-inmate patients (35 with MDR-TB) have MDR-TB strains that are genetic matches to strains collected from current inmates with MDR-TB, compared to seven out of 1080 patients (89 with MDR-TB) outside the spillover region (p values: 0.022 and 0.008). We also identify eight spatially aggregated genetic clusters of MDR-TB, four within the spillover region, consistent with local transmission among individuals living close to the prison. We demonstrate a clear prison spillover effect in this population, which suggests that interventions in the prison may have benefits that extend to the surrounding community.

Close interpersonal contact measured using mobile device location data explains dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Connecticut.

Racial and ethnic disparities in adverse birth outcomes have persistently been wide and may be explained by individual and area-level factors. Our primary objective was to determine if county-level black-white segregation modified the association between maternal race/ethnicity and adverse birth outcomes using birth records from the National Center for Health Statistics (2012). Based on maternal residence at birth, county-level black-white racial residential segregation was calculated along five dimensions of segregation: evenness, exposure, concentration, centralization, and clustering. We conducted a two-stage analysis: (1) county-specific logistic regression to determine whether maternal race and ethnicity were associated with preterm birth and term low birth weight; and (2) Bayesian meta-analyses to determine if segregation moderated these associations. We found greater black-white and Hispanic-white disparities in preterm birth in racially isolated counties (exposure) relative to non-isolated counties. We found reduced Hispanic-white disparities in term low birth weight in racially concentrated and centralized counties relative to non-segregated counties. Area-level poverty explained most of the moderating effect of segregation on disparities in adverse birth outcomes, suggesting that area-level poverty is a mediator of these associations. Segregation appears to modify racial/ethnic disparities in adverse birth outcomes. Therefore, policy interventions that reduce black-white racial isolation, or buffer the poor social and economic correlates of segregation, may help to reduce disparities in preterm birth and term low birth weight.