This study examines the spatial distribution of grain yield in the Songnen Plain Agro-Pastoral Zone in Heilongjiang Province from 2015, 2017, 2019 and 2021, using Kriging interpolation as the primary method. Ordinary Kriging (exponential kernel/semivariogram, step = 13) achieved optimal accuracy (RMSE = 0.856), outperforming Co-Kriging. Incorporating all covariates lowered precision due to weak spatial autocorrelation in slope and aspect, while limiting covariates to elevation and soil type improved results. Spatial patterns revealed a southwest-to-northeast gradient. Over time, yields increased notably in the southwest and northern areas, with Wudalianchi rising by 259.71%, but declining locally, such as a 12.20% drop in Shuangcheng. Environmental factors like slope and soil showed spatially heterogeneous influences, interacting with policies and socioeconomic variables. The grain yield center shifted slightly northward. Geographically Weighted Regression (GWR) further validated these spatial patterns. These findings provide valuable insights into covariate selection and spatial drivers, supporting more precise agricultural planning and management in the region.

The Three-North Shelter Forest Program (TNSFP) is a large-scale ecological restoration project that has attracted worldwide attention. It covers 4.069 million km² across 13 provinces in northern China, including northwestern, north-central, and northeastern regions. Bibliometric analysis provides a structural overview of the research in this field and offers insights into key research fronts. We conducted a literature review of the Web of Science Core Collection (WoSCC) from 1990 to 2024 using HistCite for a comprehensive literature analysis and CiteSpace for visualizing research trends and co-citation networks. Based on the literature data from the WoSCC, we performed a bibliometric visualization review of the TNSFP. We observe a rising trend in research on the TNSFP, with the number of publications steadily increasing, especially after 2011. Remote Sensing emerged as the leading journal during the study period, accounting for 8.84% of the total publications. China is the leading contributor to research in this field, comprising 99.32% of the publications, with the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) being the primary research institution, accounting for 36.05%. Research on the TNSFP is interdisciplinary, with Environmental Sciences serving as its primary focus. Ecological restoration and climate change are likely to be the main trends in future research. This study provides a comprehensive overview of the TNSFP’s research landscape, offering insights that can inform policy decisions, guide future research directions, and support on-the-ground conservation and afforestation strategies.