Assessing highway pavement condition is crucial for ensuring transportation safety and optimizing infrastructure maintenance. In Xinjiang, China, extreme climatic and traffic conditions pose significant challenges to pavement performance. This study introduces a machine-learning-based framework to predict asphalt pavement performance in Xinjiang. We integrate various factors (design, materials, environment, traffic, and maintenance) into regression models, creating a region-specific pavement performance decay model. Our data preprocessing methodology effectively addresses outliers and missing data, ensuring the model’s robustness. The findings offer insights into asphalt pavement behavior in Xinjiang and provide guidance for maintenance strategies. The proposed model enhances highway infrastructure safety and cost-effectiveness. Future research will focus on refining the model with more data and exploring complex variable interactions.