With the vigorous development of industrialization and urbanization, rural space faces many difficulties in achieving sustainable development, such as the spatial structure being unbalanced. To explore the sustainable development of rural space, this study evaluates the spatial evolution and multi-scenario simulation of rural space with reference to the three dominant functions of land use, namely “production–ecological–living” (PEL), based on the interpretation of land use remote sensing data in 2000, 2010, and 2020. The change characteristics and the formation mechanism of the territorial spatial pattern were quantitatively analyzed by gravity center transfer, territorial spatial transfer matrix, standard deviational ellipse, geo-detector, and artificial neural network CA simulation. The results showed that (1) from 2000 to 2020, the rural production space in Beijing continued to decrease, the rural living space continued to increase and then gradually contracted, and the rural ecological space as a whole also showed a downward trend. (2) During the study period, the formation and evolution of the ecological spatial pattern of rural production and living in Beijing were affected by both regional physical geographical factors and human, social, and economic factors, with significant differences; the interaction between two driving factors is stronger than that within a single factor, and the main mode of action is double factor enhancement and nonlinear enhancement. (3) Compared with the other three scenarios, the performance of Beijing’s rural space in 2030 under the harmonious development scenario is more compact and stable, the rural production space is basically guaranteed, the intensity of rural living space is enhanced, and the overall situation of rural ecological space is stable. Our results show that in the future decision-making of rural land and space development around a metropolis, we should fully consider the evolution law of rural spatial pattern, as well as the driving force of natural geographical factors and economic activity factors and discuss the optimization and overall management of rural production and living ecological space through multi-scenario spatial simulation.

智慧城市建设在推动城市数字化转型的同时，也对城市空间形态形成冲击。深入理解其对城市多中心化的影响，对制定城市空间规划政策至关重要。论文基于2003—2019年中国269个地级市的面板数据集，采用多周期和空间双重差分模型探究智慧城市试点政策对城市多中心化的直接影响和溢出效应，并进一步分析了政策溢出的距离衰减边界、城市异质性和调节效应。研究发现：① 智慧城市建设对城市的多中心发展进程存在抑制作用；② 在地理矩阵、经济矩阵、经济地理嵌套矩阵三种不同空间权重矩阵下，智慧城市建设对城市多中心化均表现出负向空间溢出效应，且地理矩阵下影响最为显著；③ 智慧城市建设的边际溢出效应呈现试点城市—省域—城市群近距离衰减的圈层结构，且随距离增加表现出先增强后减弱的变化趋势，在200~400 km距离带最为突出，超过600 km则不再显著；④ 异质性分析发现，从经济地带、城市等级和主导产业划分来看，政策溢出效应在西部地区城市、较高等级城市与第三产业主导城市中正向显著；⑤ 市场分割水平和政府治理水平能够在智慧城市建设与城市多中心化之间发挥有效调节作用。