The frequency of, and risk factors for, long COVID are unclear among community-based individuals with a history of COVID-19. To elucidate the burden and possible causes of long COVID in the community, we coordinated analyses of survey data from 6907 individuals with self-reported COVID-19 from 10 UK longitudinal study (LS) samples and 1.1 million individuals with COVID-19 diagnostic codes in electronic healthcare records (EHR) collected by spring 2021. Proportions of presumed COVID-19 cases in LS reporting any symptoms for 12+ weeks ranged from 7.8% and 17% (with 1.2 to 4.8% reporting debilitating symptoms). Increasing age, female sex, white ethnicity, poor pre-pandemic general and mental health, overweight/obesity, and asthma were associated with prolonged symptoms in both LS and EHR data, but findings for other factors, such as cardio-metabolic parameters, were inconclusive.

UK Biobank is a UK-wide cohort of 502,655 people aged 40–69, recruited from National Health Service registrants between 2006–10, with healthcare data linkage. Type 2 diabetes is a key exposure and outcome. We developed algorithms to define prevalent and incident diabetes for UK Biobank. The algorithms will be implemented by UK Biobank and their results made available to researchers on request. We used UK Biobank self-reported medical history and medication to assign prevalent diabetes and type, and tested this against linked primary and secondary care data in Welsh UK Biobank participants. Additionally, we derived and tested algorithms for incident diabetes using linked primary and secondary care data in the English Clinical Practice Research Datalink, and ran these on secondary care data in UK Biobank. For prevalent diabetes, 0.001% and 0.002% of people classified as “diabetes unlikely” in UK Biobank had evidence of diabetes in their primary or secondary care record respectively. Of those classified as “probable” type 2 diabetes, 75% and 96% had specific type 2 diabetes codes in their primary and secondary care records. For incidence, 95% of people with the type 2 diabetes-specific C10F Read code in primary care had corroborative evidence of diabetes from medications, blood testing or diabetes specific process of care codes. Only 41% of people identified with type 2 diabetes in primary care had secondary care evidence of type 2 diabetes. In contrast, of incident cases using ICD-10 type 2 diabetes specific codes in secondary care, 77% had corroborative evidence of diabetes in primary care. We suggest our definition of prevalent diabetes from UK Biobank baseline data has external validity, and recommend that specific primary care Read codes should be used for incident diabetes to ensure precision. Secondary care data should be used for incident diabetes with caution, as around half of all cases are missed, and a quarter have no corroborative evidence of diabetes in primary care.

Higher circulating levels of the branched-chain amino acids (BCAAs; i.e., isoleucine, leucine, and valine) are strongly associated with higher type 2 diabetes risk, but it is not known whether this association is causal. We undertook large-scale human genetic analyses to address this question. Genome-wide studies of BCAA levels in 16,596 individuals revealed five genomic regions associated at genome-wide levels of significance (p < 5 × 10⁻⁸). The strongest signal was 21 kb upstream of the PPM1K gene (beta in standard deviations [SDs] of leucine per allele = 0.08, p = 3.9 × 10⁻²⁵), encoding an activator of the mitochondrial branched-chain alpha-ketoacid dehydrogenase (BCKD) responsible for the rate-limiting step in BCAA catabolism. In another analysis, in up to 47,877 cases of type 2 diabetes and 267,694 controls, a genetically predicted difference of 1 SD in amino acid level was associated with an odds ratio for type 2 diabetes of 1.44 (95% CI 1.26–1.65, p = 9.5 × 10⁻⁸) for isoleucine, 1.85 (95% CI 1.41–2.42, p = 7.3 × 10⁻⁶) for leucine, and 1.54 (95% CI 1.28–1.84, p = 4.2 × 10⁻⁶) for valine. Estimates were highly consistent with those from prospective observational studies of the association between BCAA levels and incident type 2 diabetes in a meta-analysis of 1,992 cases and 4,319 non-cases. Metabolome-wide association analyses of BCAA-raising alleles revealed high specificity to the BCAA pathway and an accumulation of metabolites upstream of branched-chain alpha-ketoacid oxidation, consistent with reduced BCKD activity. Limitations of this study are that, while the association of genetic variants appeared highly specific, the possibility of pleiotropic associations cannot be entirely excluded. Similar to other complex phenotypes, genetic scores used in the study captured a limited proportion of the heritability in BCAA levels. Therefore, it is possible that only some of the mechanisms that increase BCAA levels or affect BCAA metabolism are implicated in type 2 diabetes. Evidence from this large-scale human genetic and metabolomic study is consistent with a causal role of BCAA metabolism in the aetiology of type 2 diabetes.

DNA methylation is strongly associated with smoking status at multiple sites across the genome. Studies have largely been restricted to European origin individuals yet the greatest increase in smoking is occurring in low income countries, such as the Indian subcontinent. We determined whether there are differences between South Asians and Europeans in smoking related loci, and if a smoking score, combining all smoking related DNA methylation scores, could differentiate smokers from non-smokers. Illumina HM450k BeadChip arrays were performed on 192 samples from the Southall And Brent REvisited (SABRE) cohort. Differential methylation in smokers was identified in 29 individual CpG sites at 18 unique loci. Interaction between smoking status and ethnic group was identified at the AHRR locus. Ethnic differences in DNA methylation were identified in non-smokers at two further loci, 6p21.33 and GNG12. With the exception of GFI1 and MYO1G these differences were largely unaffected by adjustment for cell composition. A smoking score based on methylation profile was constructed. Current smokers were identified with 100% sensitivity and 97% specificity in Europeans and with 80% sensitivity and 95% specificity in South Asians. Differences in ethnic groups were identified in both single CpG sites and combined smoking score. The smoking score is a valuable tool for identification of true current smoking behaviour. Explanations for ethnic differences in DNA methylation in association with smoking may provide valuable clues to disease pathways.

Background: Infection with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) induces a prothrombotic state, but long-term effects of COVID-19 on incidence of vascular diseases are unclear. Methods: We studied vascular diseases after COVID-19 diagnosis in population-wide anonymized linked English and Welsh electronic health records from January 1 to December 7, 2020. We estimated adjusted hazard ratios comparing the incidence of arterial thromboses and venous thromboembolic events (VTEs) after diagnosis of COVID-19 with the incidence in people without a COVID-19 diagnosis. We conducted subgroup analyses by COVID-19 severity, demographic characteristics, and previous history. Results: Among 48 million adults, 125 985 were hospitalized and 1 319 789 were not hospitalized within 28 days of COVID-19 diagnosis. In England, there were 260 279 first arterial thromboses and 59 421 first VTEs during 41.6 million person-years of follow-up. Adjusted hazard ratios for first arterial thrombosis after COVID-19 diagnosis compared with no COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 21.7 (95% CI, 21.0–22.4) in week 1 after COVID-19 diagnosis to 1.34 (95% CI, 1.21–1.48) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios for first VTE after COVID-19 diagnosis declined from 33.2 (95% CI, 31.3–35.2) in week 1 to 1.80 (95% CI, 1.50–2.17) during weeks 27 to 49. Adjusted hazard ratios were higher, for longer after diagnosis, after hospitalized versus nonhospitalized COVID-19, among Black or Asian versus White people, and among people without versus with a previous event. The estimated whole-population increases in risk of arterial thromboses and VTEs 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis were 0.5% and 0.25%, respectively, corresponding to 7200 and 3500 additional events, respectively, after 1.4 million COVID-19 diagnoses. Conclusions: High relative incidence of vascular events soon after COVID-19 diagnosis declines more rapidly for arterial thromboses than VTEs. However, incidence remains elevated up to 49 weeks after COVID-19 diagnosis. These results support policies to prevent severe COVID-19 by means of COVID-19 vaccines, early review after discharge, risk factor control, and use of secondary preventive agents in high-risk patients.

Development of cholesteryl ester transfer protein (CETP) inhibitors for coronary heart disease (CHD) has yet to deliver licensed medicines. To distinguish compound from drug target failure, we compared evidence from clinical trials and drug target Mendelian randomization of CETP protein concentration, comparing this to Mendelian randomization of proprotein convertase subtilisin/kexin type 9 (PCSK9). We show that previous failures of CETP inhibitors are likely compound related, as illustrated by significant degrees of between-compound heterogeneity in effects on lipids, blood pressure, and clinical outcomes observed in trials. On-target CETP inhibition, assessed through Mendelian randomization, is expected to reduce the risk of CHD, heart failure, diabetes, and chronic kidney disease, while increasing the risk of age-related macular degeneration. In contrast, lower PCSK9 concentration is anticipated to decrease the risk of CHD, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic kidney disease, multiple sclerosis, and stroke, while potentially increasing the risk of Alzheimer’s disease and asthma. Due to distinct effects on lipoprotein metabolite profiles, joint inhibition of CETP and PCSK9 may provide added benefit. In conclusion, we provide genetic evidence that CETP is an effective target for CHD prevention but with a potential on-target adverse effect on age-related macular degeneration.