Land use change (LUC) driven by human activities and natural factors has resulted in the global loss of native biodiversity and the alteration of ecological processes and services across different ecosystems. It is thus necessary to analyze the trends and driving factors that influence land use changes. In this study, moderate resolution Landsat images were freely downloaded from the United States Geological Survey (USGS) archives, analyzed using the random forest (RF) algorithm and mapped in ArcGIS 10.2 software to examine the LUC trends from 1990 to 2016 in the Kilombero valley floodplain (KVFP), Tanzania. Participatory rural appraisals (PRA) and household questionnaire surveys were used to assess the potential drivers of LUC. The results show that, from 1990 to 2016, the agricultural land and grassland increased by 11.3% and 13.3%, respectively, while the floodplain wetland area decreased from 4.6% in 1990 to 0.9% in 2016. Based on a questionnaire survey, the intensification of human activities was identified as the proximate driver while population growth, a growing market demand and price incentives for agricultural and forest products coupled with improved infrastructure and biophysical factors such as soil properties, climate variability and terrain characteristics were identified as the underlying drivers of LUC. However, there is interplay among these factors acting simultaneously as well as differently that influence land use changes. Based on these findings, future sustainable land management strategies should include the introduction of the alternative environmentally friendly sources of livelihood, such as beekeeping, the promotion of community participation and education on the importance of sustainable wetland management.

Land use/cover change (LUCC) attributed to natural factors and human activities has led to the loss of ecosystem services, making the quantitative valuation of ecosystem services the scientific focal pointfor sustainable development. This study assessed changes in the ecosystem services values (ESVs) due to LUCC during the period 1990–2016 in the Kilombero Valley floodplain, located in southeastern Tanzania. Moderate resolution Landsat images from 1990, 2010 and 2016 were obtained and analyzed using a random forest (RF) algorithm for classification, and ArcGIS Desktop software (version 10.2, Esri, Redlands, CA, USA) for mapping to assess the LUCC. The ESVs were estimated based on the benefit transfer approach using adopted global value coefficients and modified local value coefficients. The results revealed that the aggregated ESVs of the forests, bushlands, wetlands, and water had decreased, consequently leading to a total loss of US$ 811.5 million (26.6%) in ESVs over the past 26 years when calculated with the modified local value coefficients to US$ 3000.7 million (42.3%) when calculated with global value coefficients. Moreover, the loss in the ESV was attributed to the decreased values of water regulation, climate regulation, erosion control, nutrient cyclying, habitat/refugia, and water supply, with the exception of the values of food production and biological control, which gradually increased during the study period. This study provided minimum estimates of the ecosystem service values, which willcontribute to the formulation of policy actions and strategies for sustainable management of the Kilombero Valley floodplain and inform various stakeholders on the tradeoffs involved in the use of land resources.

Balancing wetland conservation with food security is a critical challenge for developing countries. This study compares land use change and its impacts on soil properties in two hydrologically distinct wetlands: the rain-fed Jinchuan Peatland in China and the flood-fed Kilombero Valley Floodplain (KVFP) in Tanzania. Using remote sensing data from 1990 to 2018 and soil physicochemical analysis, we found divergent reclamation trajectories. Wetland conversion has slowed in China but accelerated in Tanzania’s KVFP due to population pressure. Our results reveal a fundamental mechanism: rain-fed wetlands, lacking external nutrient replenishment, experience significantly greater soil degradation after conversion compared to flood-fed wetlands, which benefit from continued alluvial sediment inputs. Both sites showed post-conversion declines in soil moisture, total organic carbon (TOC), and total nitrogen (TN), alongside increased pH and bulk density. However, soil fertility loss was markedly more severe in Jinchuan than in KVFP. This disparity is attributed to the inability of rain-fed systems to replenish nutrients externally, whereas flood-fed KVFP benefits from continued alluvial sediment inputs. Our findings elucidate a key mechanism: flood-fed wetlands possess a natural resilience to agricultural disturbance through hydrological replenishment, making them potentially more suitable for sustainable utilization in food-insecure nations. Consequently, we propose that wetland management policies must be customized based on water source type and national development context, advocating for the targeted, science-based utilization of flood-fed wetlands as a strategic approach to reconcile food production with ecosystem preservation in regions like Tanzania.