Underwater jet scouring is an efficient, flexible underwater dredging technique, yet its complex physical mechanisms and dynamic evolution hinder dredging effectiveness evaluation. Existing studies mostly use empirical formulas and neglect the sediment properties’ influence on scour holes. This study integrates numerical simulation, theoretical derivation, and sediment characteristics to develop a universal model for efficiently predicting underwater jet scour hole morphology, overcoming existing models’ limitations of over-simplifying complex physics and insufficient experimental data alignment. Using CFD–DEM coupling to simulate scouring, it correlates key physical parameters (average/maximum shear rate, average/maximum shear velocity) with jet characteristics (nozzle diameter, velocity, distance) via theoretical derivation and simplifications, validated using multi-condition simulation data. Comparative analysis shows maximum relative errors of 13% for depth and 7% for width, confirming the engineering applicability in scour hole prediction.