This study investigates the impact of rural digital economy development on agricultural carbon emission efficiency, aiming to elucidate the intrinsic mechanisms and pathways through which digital technology enables low-carbon transformation in agriculture, thereby contributing to the achievement of agricultural carbon neutrality goals. Based on provincial-level panel data from China spanning 2011 to 2022, this study examines the relationship between the rural digital economy and agricultural carbon emission efficiency, along with its underlying mechanisms, using bidirectional fixed effects models, mediation effect analysis, and Spatial Durbin Models. The results indicate the following: (1) A significant N-shaped-curve relationship exists between rural digital economy development and agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Specifically, agricultural carbon emission efficiency exhibits a three-phase trajectory of “increase, decrease, and renewed increase” as the rural digital economy advances, ultimately driving a sustained improvement in efficiency. (2) Industrial integration acts as a critical mediating mechanism. Rural digital economy development accelerates the formation of the N-shaped curve by promoting the integration between agriculture and other sectors. (3) Spatial spillover effects significantly influence agricultural carbon emission efficiency. Due to geographical proximity, regional diffusion, learning, and demonstration effects, local agricultural carbon emission efficiency fluctuates with changes in neighboring regions’ digital economy development levels. (4) The relationship between rural digital economy development and agricultural carbon emission efficiency exhibits a significant inverted N-shaped pattern in regions with higher marketization levels, planting-dominated areas of southeast China, and digital economy demonstration zones. Further analysis reveals that within rural digital economy development, production digitalization and circulation digitalization demonstrate a more pronounced inverted N-shaped relationship with agricultural carbon emission efficiency. This study proposes strategic recommendations to maximize the positive impact of the rural digital economy on agricultural carbon emission efficiency, unlock its spatially differentiated contribution potential, identify and leverage inflection points of the N-shaped relationship between digital economy development and emission efficiency, and implement tailored policy portfolios—ultimately facilitating agriculture’s green and low-carbon transition.

A major driving force behind China’s low-carbon, environmentally friendly development of agriculture and the accomplishment of the “dual-carbon” goal is the digital transformation of rural areas. In this study, on the basis of clarifying the degree of rural digitization and agricultural carbon emissions efficiency in China from 2010 to 2021, the degree of coupled coordination and the spatiotemporal pattern characteristics between the two are examined using the coupled coordination model. Then, the influencing factors are analyzed in depth using the spatial Durbin model. Our findings reveal that, first, in terms of the degree of rural digitization, the index increases overall and the spatial imbalance is obvious, with a spatial distribution pattern of “high in the east and low in the west”. Regarding the efficiency of agricultural carbon emissions, there is an overall “N-shaped” change, which is mainly influenced by technological progress in agricultural production, and the regional annual averages are, in descending order, the Western, Eastern, Northeastern, and Central regions, with obvious regional differences. Second, the coupling coordination index shows a fluctuating upward trend, from “extreme disorder” to “high-level coordination”. Furthermore, there are obvious regional characteristics. The regional growth rates are, in descending order, the Western, Eastern, Central, and Northeastern regions. Third, coupling coordination is jointly influenced by a variety of factors, including government input, educational level, industrial structure, energy use, urbanization rate, living standards, driving temporal patterns, and regional differences. This study not only helps to clarify the relationship between the two, offering a reference for the realization of the “dual-carbon” goal, but also broadens the concepts of the low-carbon and environmentally friendly development of agriculture.

Given the increasing environmental pressures, it is essential that agriculture achieves the goal of sustainable and low-carbon development. In 2010, China, as the top carbon emitter, introduced a policy on agricultural land lease (ALL), which has been met with considerable approval from farmers and has resulted in a notable surge in the rate of ALL within the country. Nevertheless, the question of how the ALL policy affects agricultural carbon emissions (ACEs) remains unanswered. What are the transmission mechanisms? To answer these questions, this paper presents an equilibrium model that accounts for the heterogeneous production efficiency among farmers. It offers a theoretical analysis of the impact of ALL policy on agricultural carbon emission reduction (ACER) and presents an empirical test of this impact using a difference-in-differences (DID) model. Our research shows that the ALL policy gives impetus to ACER. This conclusion persists even after conducting the robustness and endogeneity tests. The mechanism posits that the policy achieves ACER through reducing the proportion of rural agricultural employees. Heterogeneity analysis indicates that the policy effect is significant in both the northern and southern regions of China. Nonetheless, the effect is only observable in economically developed areas, regions with high chemical fertilizer application rates, and areas with restricted agricultural progress. This study elucidates the connection between land transfer and agricultural carbon emissions, offering empirical evidence to support the advancement of green and low-carbon agricultural development.