Landslide disasters pose severe threats to mountainous regions, where accurate monitoring and scientific prediction are crucial for early warning and risk mitigation. This study addresses this challenge by focusing on the Outang Landslide, a representative large-scale bank slope in the Three Gorges Reservoir area known for its significant deformation responses to rainfall and reservoir-level fluctuations. The landslide’s behavior, characterized by notable hysteresis and nonlinear trends, poses a significant challenge to accurate prediction. To address this, we derived high-precision time-series deformation data by applying atmosphere-corrected Small Baseline Subset Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (SBAS-InSAR) to Sentinel-1A imagery, with validation from GNSS measurements. A systematic analysis was then conducted to uncover the correlation, hysteresis, and spatial heterogeneity between landslide deformation and key influencing variables (rainfall, water level, temperature). Furthermore, we proposed a Spatio-Temporal Enhanced Convolutional Neural Network (STE-CNN), which innovatively converts influencing variables into grayscale images to enhance spatial feature extraction, thereby improving prediction accuracy. The results indicate that: (1) From June 2022 to March 2024, the landslide showed an overall downward displacement trend, with maximum settlement and uplift rates of −49.34 mm/a and 21.77 mm/a, respectively; (2) Deformation exhibited significant correlation, hysteresis, and spatial variability with environmental factors, with dominant variables shifting across seasons—leading to intensified movement in flood seasons and relative stability in dry seasons; (3) The improved STE-CNN outperforms typical prediction models in forecasting landslide deformation.This study presents an integrated methodology that combines InSAR monitoring, multi-factor mechanistic analysis, and deep learning, offering a reliable solution for landslide early warning and risk management.

The phenomenon of arable land non-agriculturalization has become increasingly severe, posing significant threats to the security of arable land resources and ecological sustainability. This study focuses on Dachang Hui Autonomous County in Langfang City, Hebei Province, a region located at the edge of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei metropolitan cluster. In recent years, the area has undergone accelerated urbanization and industrial transfer, resulting in drastic land use changes and a pronounced contradiction between arable land protection and the expansion of construction land. The study period is 2016–2023, which covers the key period of the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei synergistic development strategy and the strengthening of the national arable land protection policy, and is able to comprehensively reflect the dynamic changes of arable land non-agriculturalization under the policy and urbanization process. Multi-temporal Sentinel-2 imagery was utilized to construct a multi-dimensional feature set, and machine learning classifiers were applied to identify arable land non-agriculturalization with optimized performance. GIS-based analysis and the geographic detector model were employed to reveal the spatio-temporal dynamics and driving mechanisms. The results demonstrate that the XGBoost model, optimized using Bayesian parameter tuning, achieved the highest classification accuracy (overall accuracy = 0.94) among the four classifiers, indicating its superior suitability for identifying arable land non-agriculturalization using multi-temporal remote sensing imagery. Spatio-temporal analysis revealed that non-agriculturalization expanded rapidly between 2016 and 2020, followed by a deceleration after 2020, exhibiting a pattern of “rapid growth–slowing down–partial regression”. Further analysis using the geographic detector revealed that socioeconomic factors are the primary drivers of arable land non-agriculturalization in Dachang Hui Autonomous County, while natural factors exerted relatively weaker effects. These findings provide technical support and scientific evidence for dynamic monitoring and policy formulation regarding arable land under urbanization, offering significant theoretical and practical implications.