Background and Objectives Nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is associated with an increased risk of dementia. Oral anticoagulants (OACs) are essential for stroke prevention in NVAF, and studies have shown a possible protective effect on dementia. However, findings have been inconsistent and hampered by methodological limitations. Thus, we assessed whether the use of OACs is associated with a decreased incidence of dementia in patients with NVAF. In addition, we explored the impact of the cumulative duration of OAC use on the incidence of dementia. Methods Using the UK Clinical Practice Research Datalink, we formed a cohort of all patients aged 50 years or older with an incident diagnosis of NVAF between 1988 and 2017 and no prior OAC use, with a follow-up until 2019. Patients were considered unexposed until 6 months after their first OAC prescription for latency considerations and exposed thereafter until the end of follow-up. We used time-dependent Cox regression models to estimate hazard ratios (HRs), adjusted for 54 covariates, with 95% CIs for dementia associated with OAC use, compared with nonuse. We also assessed whether the risk varied with the cumulative duration of OAC use, compared with nonuse, by comparing prespecified exposure categories defined in a time-varying manner and by modeling the HR using a restricted cubic spline. Results The cohort included 142,227 patients with NVAF, with 8,023 cases of dementia over 662,667 person-years of follow-up (incidence rate 12.1, 95% CI 11.9–12.4 per 1,000 person-years). OAC use was associated with a decreased risk of dementia (HR 0.88, 95% CI 0.84–0.92) compared with nonuse. A restricted cubic spline also indicated a decreased risk of dementia, reaching a low at approximately 1.5 years of cumulative OAC use and stabilizing thereafter. Moreover, OAC use decreased the risk in patients aged 75 years and older (HR 0.84, 95% CI 0.80–0.89), but not in younger patients (HR 0.99, 95% CI 0.90–1.10). Discussion In patients with incident NVAF, OACs were associated with a decreased risk of dementia, particularly in elderly individuals. This warrants consideration when weighing the risks and benefits of anticoagulation in this population. Classification of Evidence This study provides Class II evidence that in patients with NVAF, OAC use (vs nonuse) is associated with a decreased risk of dementia.

Objective: The study objective was to determine use of pain-related health care resources and associated direct and indirect costs over a two-year period in cardiac surgery patients who developed chronic post-surgical pain (CPSP). Methods: This multicentric observational prospective study recruited patients prior to cardiac surgery; these patients completed research assistant-administered questionnaires on pain and psychological characteristics at 6, 12 and 24 months post-operatively. Patients reporting CPSP also completed a one-month pain care record (PCR) (self-report diary) at each follow-up. Data were analyzed using descriptive statistics, multivariable logistic regression models, and generalized linear models with log link and gamma family adjusting for sociodemographic and pain intensity. Results: Out of 1,247 patients, 18%, 13%, and 9% reported experiencing CPSP at 6, 12, and 24 months, respectively. Between 16% and 28% of CPSP patients reported utilizing health care resources for their pain over the follow-up period. Among all CPSP patients, mean monthly pain-related costs were CAN$207 at 6 months and significantly decreased thereafter. More severe pain and greater levels of pain catastrophizing were the most consistent predictors of health care utilization and costs. Discussion: Health care costs associated with early management of CPSP after cardiac surgery seem attributable to a minority of patients and decrease over time for most of them. Results are novel in that they document for the first time the economic burden of CPSP in this population of patients. Longer follow-up time that would capture severe cases of CPSP as well as examination of costs associated with other surgical populations are warranted. Summary: Economic burden of chronic post-surgical pain may be substantial but few patients utilize resources. Health utilization and costs are associated with pain and psychological characteristics.

Senior high cost health care users (HCU) are a priority for many governments. Little research has addressed regional variation of HCU incidence and outcomes, especially among incident HCU. This study describes the regional variation in healthcare costs and mortality across Ontario’s health planning districts [Local Health Integration Networks (LHIN)] among senior incident HCU and non-HCU and explores the relationship between healthcare spending and mortality. We conducted a retrospective population-based matched cohort study of incident senior HCU defined as Ontarians aged ≥66 years in the top 5% most costly healthcare users in fiscal year (FY) 2013. We matched HCU to non-HCU (1:3) based on age, sex and LHIN. Primary outcomes were LHIN-based variation in costs (total and 12 cost components) and mortality during FY2013 as measured by variance estimates derived from multi-level models. Outcomes were risk-adjusted for age, sex, ADGs, and low-income status. In a cost-mortality analysis by LHIN, risk-adjusted random effects for total costs and mortality were graphically presented together in a cost-mortality plane to identify low and high performers. We studied 175,847 incident HCU and 527,541 matched non-HCU. On average, 94 out of 1000 seniors per LHIN were HCU (CV = 4.6%). The mean total costs for HCU in FY2013 were 12 times higher that of non-HCU ($29,779 vs. $2472 respectively), whereas all-cause mortality was 13.6 times greater (103.9 vs. 7.5 per 1000 seniors). Regional variation in costs and mortality was lower in senior HCU compared with non-HCU. We identified greater variability in accessing the healthcare system, but, once the patient entered the system, variation in costs was low. The traditional drivers of costs and mortality that we adjusted for played little role in driving the observed variation in HCUs’ outcomes. We identified LHINs that had high mortality rates despite elevated healthcare expenditures and those that achieved lower mortality at lower costs. Some LHINs achieved low mortality at excessively high costs. Risk-adjusted allocation of healthcare resources to seniors in Ontario is overall similar across health districts, more so for HCU than non-HCU. Identified important variation in the cost-mortality relationship across LHINs needs to be further explored.

The number of frail elderly will increase as the world population ageing accelerates. Since frail elders are at risk of falls, hospitalizations and disabilities, they will require more health care and services. To assess frailty prevalence using health administrative databases, to examine the association between frailty and the use of medical services and to measure the excess use of health services following a non-hip fracture across frailty levels among community-dwelling seniors. A population-based cohort study was built from the Quebec Integrated Chronic Disease Surveillance System, including men and women ≥65 years old, non-institutionalized in the pre-fracture year. Frailty was measured using the Elders Risk Assessment (ERA) index. Multivariate Generalized Estimating Equation models were used to examine the relationship between frailty levels and health services while adjusting for covariates. The excess numbers of visits to Emergency Departments (ED) and to Primary Care Practitioners (PCP) as well as hospitalizations were also estimated. The cohort included 178,304 fractures. There were 13.6 and 5.2% frail and robust seniors, respectively. In the post-fracture year, the risks of ED visits, PCP visits and hospitalizations, were significantly higher in frail vs. non-frail seniors: adjusted relative risk (RR) = 2.69 [95% CI: 2.50–2.90] for ED visits, RR = 1.28 [95% CI: 1.23–1.32] for PCP visits and RR = 2.34 [95% CI: 2.14–2.55] for hospitalizations. Our results suggest that it is possible to characterize seniors’ frailty status at a population level using health administrative databases. Furthermore, this study shows that non-institutionalized frail seniors require more health services after an incident fracture. Screening for frailty in seniors should be part of clinical management in order to identify those at a higher risk of needing health services.

Background: In Canada, 30%-60% of patients presenting to emergency departments are ambulatory. This category has been labeled as a source of emergency department overuse. Acting on the presumption that primary care practices and walk-in clinics offer equivalent care at a lower cost, governments have invested massively in improving access to these alternative settings in the hope that patients would present there instead when possible, thereby reducing the load on emergency departments. Data in support of this approach remain scarce and equivocal. Objective: The aim of this study is to compare the value of care received in emergency departments, walk-in clinics, and primary care practices by ambulatory patients with upper respiratory tract infection, sinusitis, otitis media, tonsillitis, pharyngitis, bronchitis, influenza-like illness, pneumonia, acute asthma, or acute exacerbation of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. Methods: A multicenter prospective cohort study will be performed in Ontario and Québec. In phase 1, a time-driven activity-based costing method will be applied at each of the 15 study sites. This method uses time as a cost driver to allocate direct costs (eg, medication), consumable expenditures (eg, needles), overhead costs (eg, building maintenance), and physician charges to patient care. Thus, the cost of a care episode will be proportional to the time spent receiving the care. At the end of this phase, a list of care process costs will be generated and used to calculate the cost of each consultation during phase 2, in which a prospective cohort of patients will be monitored to compare the care received in each setting. Patients aged 18 years and older, ambulatory throughout the care episode, and discharged to home with one of the aforementioned targeted diagnoses will be considered. The estimated sample size is 1485 patients. The 3 types of care settings will be compared on the basis of primary outcomes in terms of the proportion of return visits to any site 3 and 7 days after the initial visit and the mean cost of care. The secondary outcomes measured will include scores on patient-reported outcome and experience measures and mean costs borne wholly by patients. We will use multilevel generalized linear models to compare the care settings and an overlap weights approach to adjust for confounding factors related to age, sex, gender, ethnicity, comorbidities, registration with a family physician, socioeconomic status, and severity of illness. Results: Phase 1 will begin in 2021 and phase 2, in 2023. The results will be available in 2025. Conclusions: The end point of our program will be for deciders, patients, and care providers to be able to determine the most appropriate care setting for the management of ambulatory emergency respiratory conditions, based on the quality and cost of care associated with each alternative. International Registered Report Identifier (IRRID): PRR1-10.2196/25619