With continued threat from climate change and human impacts, high-resolution and continuous hydrologic data accessibility has a paramount importance for predicting trends and availability of water resources. This study presents a novel machine learning (ML)-based downscaling algorithm that produces a high spatial resolution groundwater level anomaly (GWLA) from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) data by utilizing the relationship between Terrestrial Water Storage Anomaly (TWSA) from GRACE and other land surface and hydro-climatic variables (e.g., vegetation coverage, land surface temperature, precipitation, streamflow, and in-situ groundwater level data). The predicted downscaled GWLA data were tested using monthly in-situ groundwater level observations. Of the 32 groundwater monitoring wells available in the study site, 21 wells were used to develop the ML-based downscaling model, while the remaining 11 wells were used to assess the performance of the ML-based downscaling model. The test results showed that the model satisfactorily reproduces the spatial and temporal variation of the GWLA in the area, with acceptable correlation coefficient and Nash-Sutcliffe Efficiency values of ~0.76 and ~0.45, respectively. GRACE TWSA was the most influential predictor variable in the models, followed by stream discharge and soil moisture storage. Though model limitations and uncertainty could exist due to high spatial heterogeneity of the geologic materials and omission of human impact (e.g., abstraction), the significance of the result is undeniable, particularly in areas where in-situ well measurements are sparse.

Accurate assessments of groundwater resources in major aquifers across the globe are crucial for sustainable management of freshwater reservoirs. Observations from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) satellite have become invaluable as a means to identify regions groundwater change. While there is a large body of research that focuses on downscaling coarse (1°) GRACE products, few studies have attempted to spatially downscale GRACE to produce fine resolution (5 km) maps that are more useful to resource managers. This study trained a boosted regression tree model to statistically downscale GRACE total water storage anomaly to monthly 5 km groundwater level anomaly maps in the karstic upper Floridan aquifer (UFA) using multiple hydrologic datasets. Evaluation of spatial predictions with existing groundwater wells indicated satisfactory performance (R = 0.79, NSE = 0.61). Results demonstrate that groundwater levels were stable between 2002–2016 but varied seasonally. The data also highlights areas where groundwater pumping is exacerbating UFA water-level declines. While results demonstrate the applicability of machine learning based methods for spatial downscaling of GRACE data, future studies should account for preferential flowpaths (i.e., conduits, lineaments) in karstic systems.