Against the backdrop of pervasive land fragmentation and high transaction costs, organized land transfer has emerged as a growing trend in China’s agricultural land market, facilitating the transition toward moderate-scale farming. Based on survey data from 1472 households across 72 villages in Jiangsu Province, this study investigates the impact of organized land transfer on agricultural land allocation efficiency and explores the underlying mechanisms. The results show that organized land transfer significantly enhances agricultural land allocation efficiency. This finding proves to be robust across a series of robustness analyses. Specifically, organized land transfer enhances land allocation efficiency, primarily by enhancing transfer stability, expanding the transfer scale, and broadening the transfer scope. Moreover, our analysis of moderating factors reveals that the strength of the village collective economy positively moderates the relationship between organized land transfer and efficiency, whereas lineage networks exert a negative moderating influence. Addressing equity implications, this study also examines the model’s impact on farmers’ autonomy. The findings indicate that organized land transfer significantly suppresses transfer willingness, particularly in those with low incomes and the elderly. These results carry significant policy implications: when promoting organized land transfer, it is crucial to balance the strengthening of village collectives’ intermediary role with robust regulatory frameworks designed to safeguard farmers’ land rights and autonomy.

Given the significant shifts in rural labor mobility patterns and their continuous influence on the transformation of the land factor market, it is crucial to understand the relationship between labor factor prices and land factor prices. This understanding is essential to keep land factor prices within a reasonable range. This study establishes a theoretical framework to investigate how migrant workers’ return shapes land price formation mechanisms. Using 2023 micro-level survey data from eight counties in Jiangsu Province, China, this study empirically examines how migrant workers’ return affects land transfer prices and its underlying mechanisms through OLS regression and instrumental variable approaches. The findings show that under the current pattern of labor mobility, the outflow factor alone is no longer sufficient to exert substantial downward pressure on land transfer prices. Instead, the localized return of labor has emerged as a key driver behind the rise in land transfer prices. This upward mechanism is primarily realized through the following pathways. First, factor substitution effect: this effect lowers labor prices and increases the relative marginal output value of land factors. Second, supply–demand effect: migrant workers’ return simultaneously increases land demand and reduces supply, intensifying market shortages and driving up transfer prices. Lastly, the results demonstrate that enhancing the stability of land tenure security or increasing local non-agricultural employment opportunities can mitigate the effect of rising land transfer prices caused by the migrant workers’ return. According to the study’s findings, stabilizing land factor prices depends on full non-agricultural employment for migrant workers. This underscores the significance of policies that encourage employment for returning rural labor.