Early detection of potential depression among elderly people is conducive for timely preventive intervention and clinical care to improve quality of life. Therefore, depression prediction considering sequential progression patterns in elderly needs to be further explored. We selected 1,538 elderly people from Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Study (CLHLS) wave 3-7 survey. Long short-term memory (LSTM) and six machine learning (ML) models were used to predict different depression risk factors and the depression risks in the elderly population in the next two years. Receiver operating curve (ROC) and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate the prediction accuracy of the reference model and ML models. The area under the ROC curve (AUC) values of logistic regression with lasso regularisation (AUC=0.629, p-value=0.020) was the highest among ML models. DCA results showed that the net benefit of six ML models was similar (threshold: 0.00-0.10), the net benefit of lasso regression was the largest (threshold: 0.10-0.17 and 0.22-0.25), and the net benefit of DNN was the largest (threshold: 0.17-0.22 and 0.25-0.40). In two ML models, activities of daily living (ADL)/ instrumental ADL (IADL), self-rated health, marital status, arthritis, and number of cohabiting were the most important predictors for elderly with depression. The retrospective waves used in the LSTM model need to be further increased. The decision support system based on the proposed LSTM+ML model may be very valuable for doctors, nurses and community medical providers for early diagnosis and intervention.

Background: Previous studies have demonstrated the effect of socioeconomic status on the health status of the elderly. Nevertheless, the specific dimensions of the effect and the mechanism await further investigation. In this study, socioeconomic status was divided into three dimensions and we used social participation as the mediation variable to investigate the specific path of effect. Methods: Using the 2018 Waves of Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey (CLHLS) dataset, a total of 10,197 effective samples of the elderly over 65 years old were screened out. Socioeconomic status included income, education level, and main occupation before retirement. The physical health and mental health of the elderly was measured by the Instrumental Activities of Daily Living Scale and the Minimum Mental State Examination, respectively. The social participation of the elderly was the mediation variable, including group exercise, organized social activities and interacting with friends. Omnibus mediation effect analysis was adopted to examine the mediation effect and mediation analysis was completed using the SPSS PROCESS program. Results: First, the results showed that when the income gap between the elderly reached a certain level, there was a significant difference in health status. Significant differences existed in health status amongst with different education levels. There was no sufficient evidence to show that occupation has a significant effect on the physical health. But when the dependent variable was mental health, the effect was significant. Second, group exercise mediated 64.11% (a_ib = 0.24, 95% CI [0.17,0.3]) and up to 20.44% (a_ib = 0.12, 95% CI [0.07,0.17]) of the disparity in physical and mental health due to income gap, respectively. And it could mediate the effect up to 56.30% (a_ib = 0.62, 95% CI [0.52,0.73]) and 17.87% (a_ib = 0.50, 95% CI [0.4,0.61]) of education on physical and mental health status, respectively. The proportion of relative mediation effect of occupation was up to 28.74% (a_ib = 0.19, 95% CI [0.13,0.25]) on mental health. Interacting with friends mediated only on the path that the education affected the health status of the elderly. The proportion was up to 33.72% (a_ib = 0.29, 95% CI [0.16,0.44]). The relative mediation effect of organized social activities on the health gap caused by income or education level gap was significant at some levels. The proportion was up to 21.20% (a_ib = 0.33, 95% CI [0.26,0.4]). Conclusion: The SES of the elderly including relatively large income gap, different education levels and occupational categories could indeed have a significant effect on health status of the elderly, and the reason why this effect existed could be partly explained by the mediation effect of social participation. Policymakers should pay more attention to the social participation of the elderly.

This study aimed to explore the impact of social participation (SP) on physical functioning and depression among empty-nest elderly taking part in the fourth wave of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS, 2018). The instrumental variable (IV) method and propensity score matching (PSM) method were used to analyse the impact of SP. The two-stage regression results of the IV method showed that SP has a significant negative impact on the physical functioning scores of empty-nest elderly (β = −3.539, p < 0.001) and non-empty-nest elderly (β = −4.703, p < 0.001), and SP has a significant negative impact on the depression scores of empty-nest elderly (β = −2.404, p < 0.001) and non-empty-nest elderly (β = −1.957, p < 0.001). The results of the PSM method were basically consistent with the IV method. Compared with non-empty-nest elderly, SP had more positive effects on the depression of empty-nest elderly (Wald χ² = 6.62, p = 0.010). Providing a friendly and supportive environment for the SP of empty-nest elderly was an important measure to promote healthy ageing. Targeted SP may be one of the greatest opportunities to improve the mental health of empty-nest elderly.

Background: A healthcare system refers to a typical network production system. Network data envelopment analysis (DEA) show an advantage than traditional DEA in measure the efficiency of healthcare systems. This paper utilized network data envelopment analysis to evaluate the overall and two substage efficiencies of China’s healthcare system in each of its province after the implementation of the healthcare reform. Tobit regression was performed to analyze the factors that affect the overall efficiency of healthcare systems in the provinces of China. Methods: Network DEA were obtained on MaxDEA 7.0 software, and the results of Tobit regression analysis were obtained on StataSE 15 software. The data for this study were acquired from the China health statistics yearbook (2009–2018) and official websites of databases of Chinese national bureau. Results: Tobit regression reveals that regions and government health expenditure effect the efficiency of the healthcare system in a positive way: the number of high education enrollment per 100,000 inhabitants, the number of public hospital, and social health expenditure effect the efficiency of healthcare system were negative. Conclusion: Some provincial overall efficiency has fluctuating increased, while other provincial has fluctuating decreased, and the average overall efficiency scores were fluctuations increase.

Mental health problems have become a major public health problem worldwide and are more common among middle-aged and elderly people in China. Research on the effect of education on depression is limited, and whether the relationship between education and depression changes over the life course remains unclear. This study was based on the cross-sectional data of 15,767 middle-aged and elderly individuals in the 2018 tracking survey (Wave 4) of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) database. Multiple linear regression and bootstrap methods were developed to detect the mediating effect of education on depression. In all samples or different age groups, education was significantly positively associated with depression. Three mediators (economic level, health-related lifestyle, and cognitive level) were significantly positively associated with depression, and cognitive level had a greater effect on depression than economic level and health-related lifestyle. The total, direct, and indirect effects of the whole samples and elderly samples were significant; however, the direct effect of the middle-aged samples was insignificant, and the total and indirect effects of the three mediating pathways were all significant, that is, economic level, health-related lifestyle, and cognitive level should produce complete mediation. The multiple linear regression and bootstrap methods could successfully detect the mediating effect of education on depression. On the basis of the education, economic level, health-related lifestyle, cognitive level, and depression of middle-aged and elderly people, we established and compared the total, direct, and mediating effects of education on depression under the life course. The mediating variables should be further increased, and the measurement methods of depression should be developed to improve the credibility of the research results.

Background: The strategy of successful ageing is an important means to deal with the challenges of the current ageing society. This paper aims to explore the effects of different intensities of physical activity on the successful ageing of the elderly. Methods: Our data were from wave 4 of the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Survey (CHARLS), involving 9026 residents aged 60 years and older. The intensity of physical activity was divided into three levels: vigorous, moderate and mild. The concept of successful ageing adopted a four-dimensional model of life satisfaction added to the theoretical model of Rowe and Kahn’s. Propensity score matching (PSM) with controlling nine confounding factors were used to analyse the effects of different intensities of physical activity. Results: The percentage of successful ageing was 1.88% among all subjects. Among them, 30.26, 29.57 and 29.40% of the elderly often participated in vigorous, moderate and mild physical activity, respectively. The results of PSM showed that participation in moderate activity increased the probability of successful ageing of the elderly by 0.76–0.78% (P < 0.001), while participation in vigorous and mild physical activity had no significant effect on successful ageing (P > 0.05). Moderate physical activity had statistically significant effects on four components of successful aging, including major disease, physical function, life satisfaction, and social participation (P < 0.05). Conclusion: Moderate-intensity physical activity was most beneficial to the successful ageing of the elderly and should be promoted in the elderly population.