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Manfred Lenzen
ISA, School of Physics, University of Sydney, Sydney, Australia

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Comment
Published: 04 August 2021 in Nature Energy
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Established climate mitigation scenarios assume continued economic growth in all countries, and reconcile this with the Paris targets by betting on speculative technological change. Post-growth approaches may make it easier to achieve rapid mitigation while improving social outcomes, and should be explored by climate modellers.

ACS Style

Jason Hickel; Paul Brockway; Giorgos Kallis; Lorenz Keyßer; Manfred Lenzen; Aljoša Slameršak; Julia Steinberger; Diana Ürge-Vorsatz. Urgent need for post-growth climate mitigation scenarios. Nature Energy 2021, 6, 766 -768.

AMA Style

Jason Hickel, Paul Brockway, Giorgos Kallis, Lorenz Keyßer, Manfred Lenzen, Aljoša Slameršak, Julia Steinberger, Diana Ürge-Vorsatz. Urgent need for post-growth climate mitigation scenarios. Nature Energy. 2021; 6 (8):766-768.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Jason Hickel; Paul Brockway; Giorgos Kallis; Lorenz Keyßer; Manfred Lenzen; Aljoša Slameršak; Julia Steinberger; Diana Ürge-Vorsatz. 2021. "Urgent need for post-growth climate mitigation scenarios." Nature Energy 6, no. 8: 766-768.

Review article
Published: 02 July 2021 in Resources, Conservation and Recycling
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China is responsible for a large proportion of the global material footprint. Cities are thought to be associated with most of natural resources consumption and negative impacts on the environment, especially in China, where rapid urbanization and industrial transformation has been observed over the past two decades. Cities usually source a major part of material demand from local, national, and global hinterlands across the whole global supply chain of a city's final demand. It is important to understand urban material footprints with a view to building sustainable cities and furthering economic development. In this study, we use input-output analysis to assess total material footprints and investigate the trends of material footprints time series of four Chinese megacities - Beijing, Shanghai, Chongqing, and Tianjin - from 2001 to 2015, along with factors that influence this material footprint by adopting STIRPAT model. Our results show Chongqing has the lowest MF/capita, and the increase of MF in Chongqing and Tianjin is small over time, while Beijing and Shanghai increase rapidly. Chongqing is the only city that relies more on materials extracted from its own environment. Our study provides a first indication of the imbalance between affluent coastal cities and less-developed inland cities. Further case studies are needed to obtain more general results. Our findings provide a basis for the development of relevant future resource management policies for different regions.

ACS Style

Yutong Jin; Heming Wang; Yafei Wang; Jacob Fry; Manfred Lenzen. Material footprints of Chinese megacities. Resources, Conservation and Recycling 2021, 174, 105758 .

AMA Style

Yutong Jin, Heming Wang, Yafei Wang, Jacob Fry, Manfred Lenzen. Material footprints of Chinese megacities. Resources, Conservation and Recycling. 2021; 174 ():105758.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Yutong Jin; Heming Wang; Yafei Wang; Jacob Fry; Manfred Lenzen. 2021. "Material footprints of Chinese megacities." Resources, Conservation and Recycling 174, no. : 105758.

Author correction
Published: 11 June 2021 in Nature Communications
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Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves; Jacob Fry; Arunima Malik; Arne Geschke; Maria Anice Mureb Sallum; Manfred Lenzen. Author Correction: Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk. Nature Communications 2021, 12, 1 -1.

AMA Style

Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves, Jacob Fry, Arunima Malik, Arne Geschke, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum, Manfred Lenzen. Author Correction: Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk. Nature Communications. 2021; 12 (1):1-1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves; Jacob Fry; Arunima Malik; Arne Geschke; Maria Anice Mureb Sallum; Manfred Lenzen. 2021. "Author Correction: Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk." Nature Communications 12, no. 1: 1-1.

Journal article
Published: 11 May 2021 in Nature Communications
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1.5 °C scenarios reported by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) rely on combinations of controversial negative emissions and unprecedented technological change, while assuming continued growth in gross domestic product (GDP). Thus far, the integrated assessment modelling community and the IPCC have neglected to consider degrowth scenarios, where economic output declines due to stringent climate mitigation. Hence, their potential to avoid reliance on negative emissions and speculative rates of technological change remains unexplored. As a first step to address this gap, this paper compares 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios with IPCC archetype scenarios, using a simplified quantitative representation of the fuel-energy-emissions nexus. Here we find that the degrowth scenarios minimize many key risks for feasibility and sustainability compared to technology-driven pathways, such as the reliance on high energy-GDP decoupling, large-scale carbon dioxide removal and large-scale and high-speed renewable energy transformation. However, substantial challenges remain regarding political feasibility. Nevertheless, degrowth pathways should be thoroughly considered.

ACS Style

Lorenz T. Keyßer; Manfred Lenzen. 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways. Nature Communications 2021, 12, 1 -16.

AMA Style

Lorenz T. Keyßer, Manfred Lenzen. 1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways. Nature Communications. 2021; 12 (1):1-16.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Lorenz T. Keyßer; Manfred Lenzen. 2021. "1.5 °C degrowth scenarios suggest the need for new mitigation pathways." Nature Communications 12, no. 1: 1-16.

Journal article
Published: 29 March 2021 in Nature Geoscience
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Pesticides are widely used to protect food production and meet global food demand but are also ubiquitous environmental pollutants, causing adverse effects on water quality, biodiversity and human health. Here we use a global database of pesticide applications and a spatially explicit environmental model to estimate the world geography of environmental pollution risk caused by 92 active ingredients in 168 countries. We considered a region to be at risk of pollution if pesticide residues in the environment exceeded the no-effect concentrations, and to be at high risk if residues exceeded this by three orders of magnitude. We find that 64% of global agricultural land (approximately 24.5 million km2) is at risk of pesticide pollution by more than one active ingredient, and 31% is at high risk. Among the high-risk areas, about 34% are in high-biodiversity regions, 5% in water-scarce areas and 19% in low- and lower-middle-income nations. We identify watersheds in South Africa, China, India, Australia and Argentina as high-concern regions because they have high pesticide pollution risk, bear high biodiversity and suffer from water scarcity. Our study expands earlier pesticide risk assessments as it accounts for multiple active ingredients and integrates risks in different environmental compartments at a global scale. Pesticide pollution is a risk for two-thirds of agriculture land. A third of high-risk areas are in high-biodiversity regions and a fifth are in low- and lower-middle-income areas, according to environmental modelling combined with pesticide application data.

ACS Style

Fiona H. M. Tang; Manfred Lenzen; Alexander McBratney; Federico Maggi. Risk of pesticide pollution at the global scale. Nature Geoscience 2021, 14, 206 -210.

AMA Style

Fiona H. M. Tang, Manfred Lenzen, Alexander McBratney, Federico Maggi. Risk of pesticide pollution at the global scale. Nature Geoscience. 2021; 14 (4):206-210.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Fiona H. M. Tang; Manfred Lenzen; Alexander McBratney; Federico Maggi. 2021. "Risk of pesticide pollution at the global scale." Nature Geoscience 14, no. 4: 206-210.

Journal article
Published: 14 February 2021 in Journal of Cleaner Production
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Controversy exists regarding the scale of the impacts caused by fast fashion. This article aims to provide a robust basis for discussion about the geography, the scale and the temporal trends in the impacts of fast fashion because the globalisation of the fashion industry means original, peer-reviewed, quantitative assessments of the total impacts are relatively rare and difficult to compare. This article presents the first application of Eora, a multiregional environmentally extended input output model, to the assessment of the impacts of clothing and footwear value chain. We focus on the key environmental indicators of energy consumption, climate and water resources impacts, and social indicators of wages and employment. The results of the analysis indicate that the climate impact of clothing and footwear consumption rose from 1.0 to 1.3 Gt carbon dioxide equivalent over the 15 years to 2015. China, India, the USA and Brazil dominate these figures. The trends identified in this and the other indicators represent small increases over the study period compared to the 75% increase in textile production, meaning that the impacts per garment have improved considerably. On the other hand, the climate and water use impacts are larger as a proportion of global figures than the benefits provided via employment and wages. Our analysis of energy consumption suggests most of the per-garment improvement in emissions is the result of increased fashion-industrial efficiency, with a lesser role being played by falling carbon intensity among energy suppliers. While both the social benefits and environmental impacts per mass of garment appear to have decreased in recent times, much greater improvements in the absolute carbon footprint of the fashion industry are attainable by eliminating fossil-fueled electricity supplies, and by eliminating fast fashion as a business model.

ACS Style

Greg Peters; Mengyu Li; Manfred Lenzen. The need to decelerate fast fashion in a hot climate - A global sustainability perspective on the garment industry. Journal of Cleaner Production 2021, 295, 126390 .

AMA Style

Greg Peters, Mengyu Li, Manfred Lenzen. The need to decelerate fast fashion in a hot climate - A global sustainability perspective on the garment industry. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2021; 295 ():126390.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Greg Peters; Mengyu Li; Manfred Lenzen. 2021. "The need to decelerate fast fashion in a hot climate - A global sustainability perspective on the garment industry." Journal of Cleaner Production 295, no. : 126390.

Research article
Published: 09 February 2021 in Environmental Science & Technology
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It has been observed that market failure has hampered the development of sustainable forest ecosystem services such as CO2 absorption and fixation, water retention, and biodiversity. One of the reasons for this is that the link between forest land use and the beneficiaries of that use has not been widely recognized or clearly established. To address this problem, we conducted a footprint analysis to clarify the linkage between Japanese taxpayers as the beneficiaries of forest land use and the use of tax revenue and monetary donations for forest management. This study focuses on how the current forest tax collected from Japanese taxpayers (63 billion Japanese yen) could be allocated more fairly. The question of whether the collected taxes are sufficient is left for another time. At the core of our analysis, we examined the carbon footprint and established a linkage between the origins of CO2 emissions in Japan and their destinations by using a subnational multiregional input–output database and building a base table focused on various land use types and subnational regions at the municipality level. By clarifying these linkages and enhancing their transparency, we provide a basis for developing alternative financing schemes involving both taxation and taxpayer donations in support of forest management activities and protection of biodiverse habitats.

ACS Style

Takako Wakiyama; Manfred Lenzen; Taku Kadoya; Yayoi Takeuchi; Keisuke Nansai. Forest Tax Payment Responsibility from the Forest Service Footprint Perspective. Environmental Science & Technology 2021, 55, 3165 -3174.

AMA Style

Takako Wakiyama, Manfred Lenzen, Taku Kadoya, Yayoi Takeuchi, Keisuke Nansai. Forest Tax Payment Responsibility from the Forest Service Footprint Perspective. Environmental Science & Technology. 2021; 55 (5):3165-3174.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Takako Wakiyama; Manfred Lenzen; Taku Kadoya; Yayoi Takeuchi; Keisuke Nansai. 2021. "Forest Tax Payment Responsibility from the Forest Service Footprint Perspective." Environmental Science & Technology 55, no. 5: 3165-3174.

Journal article
Published: 06 February 2021 in Journal of Cleaner Production
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This paper explores the potential of a practical sustainability accounting roadmap that might contribute to transforming organisational accounting approaches to sustainability. The paper develops and evaluates an approach to input-output analysis, which combines existing financial accounting with publicly available national input-output data for scanning upstream supply chains of organisations for comprehensive scope-3 impact assessments. A range of accounting outputs are availed, providing insight into aspects of an organisation’s direct and indirect environmental and social supply chain impacts at a national and international level. The practical sustainability accounting roadmap presented in this study has the potential to address a range of organisational-level sustainability accounting questions focused on efficiency, consistency and sufficiency, and to assist in the preparation of external sustainability reporting commitments. The findings suggest the accounting profession ought to assume a greater responsibility in the sustainability debate by facilitating and promoting the trial and uptake of related methodologies and tools to enable organisations to measure and report on broader aspects of performance.

ACS Style

Arunima Malik; Matthew Egan; Michael du Plessis; Manfred Lenzen. Managing sustainability using financial accounting data: The value of input-output analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production 2021, 293, 126128 .

AMA Style

Arunima Malik, Matthew Egan, Michael du Plessis, Manfred Lenzen. Managing sustainability using financial accounting data: The value of input-output analysis. Journal of Cleaner Production. 2021; 293 ():126128.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Arunima Malik; Matthew Egan; Michael du Plessis; Manfred Lenzen. 2021. "Managing sustainability using financial accounting data: The value of input-output analysis." Journal of Cleaner Production 293, no. : 126128.

Article commentary
Published: 15 December 2020 in Environmental Science & Technology
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Arunima Malik; Chanjief Chandrakumar; Manfred Lenzen; Sarah J. McLaren. Re-Examining Climate Policies for Pathways to a Zero Carbon Future. Environmental Science & Technology 2020, 55, 1 -3.

AMA Style

Arunima Malik, Chanjief Chandrakumar, Manfred Lenzen, Sarah J. McLaren. Re-Examining Climate Policies for Pathways to a Zero Carbon Future. Environmental Science & Technology. 2020; 55 (1):1-3.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Arunima Malik; Chanjief Chandrakumar; Manfred Lenzen; Sarah J. McLaren. 2020. "Re-Examining Climate Policies for Pathways to a Zero Carbon Future." Environmental Science & Technology 55, no. 1: 1-3.

Journal article
Published: 01 November 2020 in Environmental Research Letters
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ACS Style

Michael Heihsel; Manfred Lenzen; Frank Behrendt. Desalination and sustainability: a triple bottom line study of Australia. Environmental Research Letters 2020, 15, 114044 .

AMA Style

Michael Heihsel, Manfred Lenzen, Frank Behrendt. Desalination and sustainability: a triple bottom line study of Australia. Environmental Research Letters. 2020; 15 (11):114044.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Michael Heihsel; Manfred Lenzen; Frank Behrendt. 2020. "Desalination and sustainability: a triple bottom line study of Australia." Environmental Research Letters 15, no. 11: 114044.

Journal article
Published: 14 October 2020 in Biomass and Bioenergy
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Because of the variability of wind and solar resources, high shares of wind and solar PV in power supply systems can lead to supply gaps during occasional low-resource periods. Due to their ability to meet demand in a short term, dispatchable renewable energy (RE) resources – biomass, concentrating solar power (CSP) and hydropower – can assist in meeting such supply gaps. In this study, we investigate the spatial and temporal configurations of least-cost 100% renewable power supply in Australia, at various levels of biomass resource use and CSP penetration. To this end, we carry out a high-resolution Geographic Information System (GIS)-based hourly electricity supply-demand matching simulation. We find that, based on the current existing biomass capacity (1.7 GW) installed in Australia, a 100% national RE supply is possible with around 146–148 GW system installed capacity at a levelized cost of electricity (LCoE) of 9–10 US' kWh−1 (95% level of confidence). Under a 5–15 times expansion of biomass, the system capacity would be reduced to around 70–110 GW at an LCoE of 6–8 US' kWh−1. Depending on limitations to the generation from biomass posed by competing land uses, CSP could play an important role in reducing the system capacity to nearly 120 GW.

ACS Style

Mengyu Li; Manfred Lenzen; Moslem Yousefzadeh; Fabiano A. Ximenes. The roles of biomass and CSP in a 100 % renewable electricity supply in Australia. Biomass and Bioenergy 2020, 143, 105802 .

AMA Style

Mengyu Li, Manfred Lenzen, Moslem Yousefzadeh, Fabiano A. Ximenes. The roles of biomass and CSP in a 100 % renewable electricity supply in Australia. Biomass and Bioenergy. 2020; 143 ():105802.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mengyu Li; Manfred Lenzen; Moslem Yousefzadeh; Fabiano A. Ximenes. 2020. "The roles of biomass and CSP in a 100 % renewable electricity supply in Australia." Biomass and Bioenergy 143, no. : 105802.

Preprint content
Published: 28 July 2020
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The link between global ecosystem decline, trade, and human consumption suggests that trade-based biodiversity footprints should be regarded as a critical indicator of planetary impacts. Here we integrate a global input-output economic framework that encompasses global trade between 15909 sectors, with range and impact data on 10518 terrestrial plant, 17234 terrestrial animal, 6101 freshwater and 5059 marine species, to specify the biodiversity footprints associated with global trade and consumption across domestic and international supply chains. Our framework characterises global species loss as driven by domestic trade in emerging market economies including China, Brazil, Mexico, India, and Ecuador, and exacerbated by consumption in high-income countries, especially those in the G7, that are driving species loss in emerging markets and low-income nations. We attribute the largest sector-scope footprints to construction in China, Colombia, and India, agriculture commodity trade in Madagascar, Mexico, Tanzania, and Peru, and food manufacture in Mexico, Germany and France.

ACS Style

Isaac Peterson; Matthew Selinske; Manfred Lenzen; Atte Moilanen. The Ecological Cost Of Consumption. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Isaac Peterson, Matthew Selinske, Manfred Lenzen, Atte Moilanen. The Ecological Cost Of Consumption. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Isaac Peterson; Matthew Selinske; Manfred Lenzen; Atte Moilanen. 2020. "The Ecological Cost Of Consumption." , no. : 1.

Article
Published: 05 July 2020
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The Scientific Paper of the Future (SPF) concept, initiated by the EarthCube OntoSoft Funded Project, encourages scientists to publish not only peer-reviewed journal articles, but also all associated data, software (data processing scripts), and computational workflows, in order to enable full science reproducibility. While the SPF concept was originally aimed at geoscientists, it can also be applied to interdisciplinary projects such as between ecology, economics, and maritime shipping. Multi-region input-output (MRIO) analysis is a method from economics for analyzing economic interdependencies between different regional entities. Entities can be countries, regions within a country, or groups of countries. MRIO can also be used to analyze other types of interdependencies, such as the environmental impact of one region’s activities on another. For this project, we use MRIO to analyze the global spread of marine non-indigenous species via cargo ships. Over 90% of global trade occurs by maritime shipping. Along with intended cargo, ships provide a means for marine organisms to move to locations beyond their natural ranges, mainly via hull fouling or in ballast tanks. These species can have harmful ecological and economic impacts at their destinations. By using MRIO to follow the imports and exports of commodities between countries, we can deduce the magnitude of seaborne trade connections based on physical volume of commodity traded, and therefore the magnitude and geographic distribution of marine biosecurity risk. MRIO model construction involved incorporating a diversity of data types from ecology, economics, and shipping, and has turned out to be a surprisingly complex endeavor. My poster will demonstrate the principles of an SPF by providing a diagram of the computational workflow involved in the model’s construction, including an explanation for each dataset incorporated into the model’s input parameters and each piece of software written to process the data and assemble and run the model.

ACS Style

Mimi TzengiD; Manfred Lenzen; Oliver Floerl; Anastasija ZaikoiD. Applying Multi-Region Input-Output Analysis to Marine Bioinvasions: A Scientific Paper of the Future in Progress. 2020, 1 .

AMA Style

Mimi TzengiD, Manfred Lenzen, Oliver Floerl, Anastasija ZaikoiD. Applying Multi-Region Input-Output Analysis to Marine Bioinvasions: A Scientific Paper of the Future in Progress. . 2020; ():1.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Mimi TzengiD; Manfred Lenzen; Oliver Floerl; Anastasija ZaikoiD. 2020. "Applying Multi-Region Input-Output Analysis to Marine Bioinvasions: A Scientific Paper of the Future in Progress." , no. : 1.

Articles
Published: 04 July 2020 in Economic Systems Research
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Input–output analysis currently treats capital investment as exogenous to the inter-industry system despite capital goods being used further in production processes. Previous studies have applied the Leontief calculus to include impacts of capital in footprint calculations. Here, we adopt a supply-use approach to incorporating capital into footprint calculations, by constructing capital supply-use tables (KSUTs) that enable differentiating capital goods. As the new KSUT formalism is compliant with the Supply-Use formalism in the UN's System of National Accounts, we can keep full transparency throughout the process of calculating impact multipliers. We demonstrate the usefulness of the KSUT framework in a case study of the Australian economy, with environmental extensions from the EXIOBASE3 database. If consumption-based emissions were considered for the UN's Framework Convention on Climate Change, the KSUT framework would provide a consistent and transparent foundation for working out countries’ responsibility for carbon emissions from both current use and capital investment.

ACS Style

Carl-Johan H. Södersten; Manfred Lenzen. A supply-use approach to capital endogenization in input–output analysis. Economic Systems Research 2020, 32, 451 -475.

AMA Style

Carl-Johan H. Södersten, Manfred Lenzen. A supply-use approach to capital endogenization in input–output analysis. Economic Systems Research. 2020; 32 (4):451-475.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Carl-Johan H. Södersten; Manfred Lenzen. 2020. "A supply-use approach to capital endogenization in input–output analysis." Economic Systems Research 32, no. 4: 451-475.

Perspective
Published: 19 June 2020 in Nature Communications
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For over half a century, worldwide growth in affluence has continuously increased resource use and pollutant emissions far more rapidly than these have been reduced through better technology. The affluent citizens of the world are responsible for most environmental impacts and are central to any future prospect of retreating to safer environmental conditions. We summarise the evidence and present possible solution approaches. Any transition towards sustainability can only be effective if far-reaching lifestyle changes complement technological advancements. However, existing societies, economies and cultures incite consumption expansion and the structural imperative for growth in competitive market economies inhibits necessary societal change.

ACS Style

Thomas Wiedmann; Manfred Lenzen; Lorenz T. Keyßer; Julia K. Steinberger. Scientists’ warning on affluence. Nature Communications 2020, 11, 1 -10.

AMA Style

Thomas Wiedmann, Manfred Lenzen, Lorenz T. Keyßer, Julia K. Steinberger. Scientists’ warning on affluence. Nature Communications. 2020; 11 (1):1-10.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Thomas Wiedmann; Manfred Lenzen; Lorenz T. Keyßer; Julia K. Steinberger. 2020. "Scientists’ warning on affluence." Nature Communications 11, no. 1: 1-10.

Journal article
Published: 20 May 2020 in Futures
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Many studies have concluded that the current global economy can transition from fossil fuels to be powered entirely by renewable energy. While supporting such transition, we critique analysis purporting to conclusively demonstrate feasibility. Deep uncertainties remain about whether renewables can maintain, let alone grow, the range and scale of energy services presently provided by fossil fuels. The more optimistic renewable energy studies rely upon assumptions that may be theoretically or technically plausible, but which remain highly uncertain when real-world practicalities are accounted for. This places investigation of energy-society futures squarely in the domain of post-normal science, implying the need for greater ‘knowledge humility’ when framing and interpreting the findings from quantitative modelling exercises conducted to investigate energy futures. Greater appreciation for the limits of what we can know via such techniques reveals ‘energy descent’ as a plausible post-carbon scenario. Given the fundamental dependence of all economic activity on availability of energy in appropriate forms at sufficient rates, profound changes to dominant modes of production and consumption may be required, a view marginalised when more techno-optimistic futures are assumed. Viewing this situation through the lens of ‘post-normal times’ opens avenues for response that can better support societies in navigating viable futures.

ACS Style

Joshua Floyd; Samuel Alexander; Manfred Lenzen; Patrick Moriarty; Graham Palmer; Sangeetha Chandra-Shekeran; Barney Foran; Lorenz Tilmann Keyßer. Energy descent as a post-carbon transition scenario: How ‘knowledge humility’ reshapes energy futures for post-normal times. Futures 2020, 122, 102565 .

AMA Style

Joshua Floyd, Samuel Alexander, Manfred Lenzen, Patrick Moriarty, Graham Palmer, Sangeetha Chandra-Shekeran, Barney Foran, Lorenz Tilmann Keyßer. Energy descent as a post-carbon transition scenario: How ‘knowledge humility’ reshapes energy futures for post-normal times. Futures. 2020; 122 ():102565.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Joshua Floyd; Samuel Alexander; Manfred Lenzen; Patrick Moriarty; Graham Palmer; Sangeetha Chandra-Shekeran; Barney Foran; Lorenz Tilmann Keyßer. 2020. "Energy descent as a post-carbon transition scenario: How ‘knowledge humility’ reshapes energy futures for post-normal times." Futures 122, no. : 102565.

Journal article
Published: 22 April 2020 in Applied Energy
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In future, the low carbon electricity grid will need an additional potential of energetic flexibility to compensate the variable renewable supply. Wastewater treatment plants have the potential to provide electricity demand and generation flexibility. A novel approach of utilising the energetic flexibility in wastewater treatment plants to optimize the installed capacity of a fully renewable electricity grid in Australia is presented. In this hourly electricity supply simulation, both the electricity generation and demand of wastewater treatment plants are shifted for reducing the required size of 100% renewable electricity grid and achieving perfect supply-demand matching. The electricity demand and dispatchable electricity generation capacity of cogeneration systems in wastewater treatment plants are modelled on a 90×110 raster grid. For a 6-hour shift in wastewater treatment plant’s electricity demand and it’s electricity generation limited to five times the current capacity, a 100% renewable electricity grid would need an installed capacity of around 149 GW to meet the existing reliability standard (6–8 h of power outages per year). The electricity generation cost is around 16 ¢/kWh with a capacity factor of 28% and spilt electricity of less than 21%. The electricity generated from sewage methane in wastewater treatment plants is only 1% of the total generation and is utilised along with biomass power plants to plug demand-supply gaps. Our results indicate that a 2% reduction in installed capacity and 11% reduction in levelized cost of electricity is achieved by utilizing the energetic flexibility of wastewater treatment plants.

ACS Style

Syed Muhammad Hassan Ali; Manfred Lenzen; Fabian Sack; Moslem Yousefzadeh. Electricity generation and demand flexibility in wastewater treatment plants: Benefits for 100% renewable electricity grids. Applied Energy 2020, 268, 114960 .

AMA Style

Syed Muhammad Hassan Ali, Manfred Lenzen, Fabian Sack, Moslem Yousefzadeh. Electricity generation and demand flexibility in wastewater treatment plants: Benefits for 100% renewable electricity grids. Applied Energy. 2020; 268 ():114960.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Syed Muhammad Hassan Ali; Manfred Lenzen; Fabian Sack; Moslem Yousefzadeh. 2020. "Electricity generation and demand flexibility in wastewater treatment plants: Benefits for 100% renewable electricity grids." Applied Energy 268, no. : 114960.

Journal article
Published: 09 March 2020 in Nature Communications
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Deforestation can increase the transmission of malaria. Here, we build upon the existing link between malaria risk and deforestation by investigating how the global demand for commodities that increase deforestation can also increase malaria risk. We use a database of trade relationships to link the consumption of deforestation-implicated commodities in developed countries to estimates of country-level malaria risk in developing countries. We estimate that about 20% of the malaria risk in deforestation hotspots is driven by the international trade of deforestation-implicated export commodities, such as timber, wood products, tobacco, cocoa, coffee and cotton. By linking malaria risk to final consumers of commodities, we contribute information to support demand-side policy measures to complement existing malaria control interventions, with co-benefits for reducing deforestation and forest disturbance.

ACS Style

Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves; Jacob Fry; Arunima Malik; Arne Geschke; Maria Anice Mureb Sallum; Manfred Lenzen. Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk. Nature Communications 2020, 11, 1 -10.

AMA Style

Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves, Jacob Fry, Arunima Malik, Arne Geschke, Maria Anice Mureb Sallum, Manfred Lenzen. Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk. Nature Communications. 2020; 11 (1):1-10.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Leonardo Suveges Moreira Chaves; Jacob Fry; Arunima Malik; Arne Geschke; Maria Anice Mureb Sallum; Manfred Lenzen. 2020. "Global consumption and international trade in deforestation-associated commodities could influence malaria risk." Nature Communications 11, no. 1: 1-10.

Accepted manuscript
Published: 06 September 2019 in Environmental Research Letters
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What could be the reduction in greenhouse gas emissions if the conventional way of maintaining roads is changed? Emissions of greenhouse gases must be reduced if global warming is to be avoided, and urgent political and technological decisions should be taken. However, there is a lock-in in built infrastructures that is limiting the rate at which emissions can be reduced. Self-healing asphalt is a new type of technology that will reduce the need for fossil fuels over the lifetime of a road pavement, at the same time as prolonging the road lifespan. In this study we have assessed the benefits of using self-healing asphalt as an alternative material for road pavements employing a hybrid input-output-assisted Life-Cycle Assessment, as only by determining the plausible scenarios of future emissions will policy makers identify pathways that might achieve climate change mitigation goals. We have concluded that self-healing roads could prevent a considerable amount of emissions and costs over the global road network: 16% lower emissions and 32% lower costs compared to a conventional road over the lifecycle.

ACS Style

Ana María Rodríguez-Alloza; Michael Heihsel; Jacob Fry; Juan Gallego; Arne Geschke; Richard Wood; Manfred Lenzen. Consequences of long-term infrastructure decisions—the case of self-healing roads and their CO 2 emissions. Environmental Research Letters 2019, 14, 114040 .

AMA Style

Ana María Rodríguez-Alloza, Michael Heihsel, Jacob Fry, Juan Gallego, Arne Geschke, Richard Wood, Manfred Lenzen. Consequences of long-term infrastructure decisions—the case of self-healing roads and their CO 2 emissions. Environmental Research Letters. 2019; 14 (11):114040.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Ana María Rodríguez-Alloza; Michael Heihsel; Jacob Fry; Juan Gallego; Arne Geschke; Richard Wood; Manfred Lenzen. 2019. "Consequences of long-term infrastructure decisions—the case of self-healing roads and their CO 2 emissions." Environmental Research Letters 14, no. 11: 114040.

Articles
Published: 26 August 2019 in Policy Studies
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International fragmentation phenomenon has dramatically changed the pattern of international trade. Instead of exchange of finished goods, the so-called global value chain (GVC) involves multi-stages production process across geographical borders, probing for its impact of gain from trade. Using recently developed multi-regional input–output (MRIO) tables, this paper examines and compares wage inequality effects of trading with Transpacific Partnership Agreement (TPPA), BRICS and ASEAN economies in Malaysia. A combination of MRIO model and inequality accounting framework has been exploited to quantify skills (i.e. low, medium, high) and ethnics wage inequality. The results show that Malaysia could have significantly experienced high wage inequality at different skill categories and across ethnic groups when trade with TPPA, suggesting the mega trade deal potentially risks existing efforts for equitable distribution. In particular, Chinese ethnics, who are commonly employed in high productive sectors, benefit the most compared to Malays and Indians. In contrast, exports to the BRICS and ASEAN countries have minimal effects on wage inequality, where regional trade could be more effective in reducing inequalities.

ACS Style

Muhammad Daaniyall Abd Rahman; Mohd Yusof Saari; Manfred Lenzen; Arunima Malik. Skills and ethnics wage inequalities within the global value chain: an evidence from Malaysia. Policy Studies 2019, 1 -20.

AMA Style

Muhammad Daaniyall Abd Rahman, Mohd Yusof Saari, Manfred Lenzen, Arunima Malik. Skills and ethnics wage inequalities within the global value chain: an evidence from Malaysia. Policy Studies. 2019; ():1-20.

Chicago/Turabian Style

Muhammad Daaniyall Abd Rahman; Mohd Yusof Saari; Manfred Lenzen; Arunima Malik. 2019. "Skills and ethnics wage inequalities within the global value chain: an evidence from Malaysia." Policy Studies , no. : 1-20.