The figures for currently observed as well as projected global diabetes prevalence from the IDF (International Diabetes Federation) atlas are the standard sources when reporting the burden of diabetes. The IDF considers their projections to be conservative estimates and some have criticized the numbers for underestimating the future burden of diabetes.1–3

Remission is arguably the ultimate therapeutic goal in rheumatoid arthritis (RA). Applying modern strategies, clinical remission can be achieved in a substantial number of patients with early RA (ERA). Even in those patients, the number and scope of erosions can increase. We, therefore, investigated the value of MRI for the detection of radiological progression in patients with DAS28 improvement and/or clinical remission of the German Remission-plus cohort. Data-sets of 80 RA patients (according to 2010 ACR/EULAR criteria) from the Remission-plus study cohort, who fulfilled the following criteria, were retrospectively analysed: availability of two consecutive MRI scans (low-field MRI, follow-up interval 1 year) of the clinically dominant hand and wrist, and the presence of DAS28 (CRP) scores at both time points, which was used to assess disease activity. Seventy-one of the 80 investigated patients presented a numerical improvement of the DAS28 (CRP) after 12 months (DAS28(CRP) T0 average (Ø) 4.96, SD 1.2; DAS28 T4 (12 month) Ø 2.6, SD 1.0), 73% of them also improved in the RAMRIS-Score, while 24% demonstrated an increase despite DAS28 improvement and 3% showed equal values. 48% of patients who improved in the DAS28 reached EULAR remission. 41% of these patients had an increase in the RAMRIS Erosion-subscore after 12 months. When considering EULAR response criteria (non-response (n = 7), moderate response (n = 19), good response (n = 45)), an increase of erosions was found in 71.4% of non-responders, 52.6% of moderate responders, and 31.1% of good responders after 12 months, all compared to baseline. Up to 40% of patients in this study demonstrated a progressive erosive disease detected by MRI despite DAS28 improvement or EULAR remission. Future studies are needed to determine the prognostic clinical impact of disease progression in MRI despite clinical remission, and to investigate if DAS28 remission may be an insufficient therapeutic goal and should be accompanied by MRI remission criteria.

Inhomogeneity of immune cell distribution in the synovial sublining layer was analyzed in order to improve our mechanistic understanding of synovial inflammation and explore potential refinements for histological biomarkers in rheumatoid arthritis (RA) and osteoarthritis (OA). Synovial tissue of 20 patients (11 RA, 9 OA) was immunohistochemically stained for macrophages (CD68), synovial fibroblasts (CD55), T cells (CD3), plasma cells (CD38), endothelial cells (vWF) and mast cells (MCT). The synovial sublining layer was divided into predefined adjacent zones and fractions of the stained area (SA) were determined by digital image analysis for each cell marker. Distribution of CD68, CD55, CD38 and MCT staining of the sublining area was heterogeneous (Friedman ANOVA p < 0.05). The highest expression for all markers was observed in the upper layer close to the lining layer with a decrease in the middle and lower sublining. The SA of CD68, CD55 and CD38 was significantly higher in all layers of RA tissue compared to OA (p < 0.05), except the CD38 fraction of the lower sublining. Based on receiver operating characteristics analysis, CD68 SA of the total sublining resulted in the highest area under the curve (AUC 0.944, CI 95 % 0.844–1.0, p = 0.001) followed by CD68 in the upper and middle layer respectively (both AUC 0.933, CI 95 % 0.816–1.0, p = 0.001) in both RA and OA. Linear mixed modelling confirmed significant differences in the SA of sublining CD68 between OA and RA (p = 0.0042) with a higher concentration of CD68+ towards the lining layer and more rapid decline towards the periphery of the sublining in RA compared to OA (p = 0.0022). Immune cells are inhomogeneously distributed within the sublining layer. RA and OA tissue display differences in the number of CD68 macrophages and differences in CD68 decline within the synovial sublining.

Background: Accurate projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases are necessary for effective resource allocation and health care planning in response to changes in disease burden. Aim: To introduce and compare different projection methods to estimate the number of people with diagnosed type 2 diabetes (T2D) in Germany in 2040. Methods: We compare three methods to project the number of males with T2D in Germany in 2040. Method 1) simply combines the sex- and age-specific prevalence of T2D in 2010 with future population distributions projected by the German Federal Statistical Office (FSO). Methods 2) and 3) additionally account for the incidence of T2D and mortality rates using partial differential equations (PDEs). Method 2) models the prevalence of T2D employing a scalar PDE which incorporates incidence and mortality rates. Subsequently, the estimated prevalence is applied to the population projection of the FSO. Method 3) uses a two-dimensional system of PDEs and estimates future case numbers directly while future mortality of people with and without T2D is modelled independently from the projection of the FSO. Results: Method 1) projects 3.6 million male people with diagnosed T2D in Germany in 2040. Compared to 2.8 million males in 2010, this equals an increase by 29%. Methods 2) and 3) project 5.9 million (+104% compared to 2010) and 6.0 million (+116%) male T2D patients, respectively. Conclusions: The results of the three methods differ substantially. It appears that ignoring temporal trends in incidence and mortality may result in misleading projections of the future number of people with chronic diseases. Hence, it is essential to include these rates as is done by method 2) and 3).