The objective of this study was to identify the areas that are most susceptible to landslide occurrence, and to find the key factors associated with landslides along Jinsha River and its tributaries close to Derong and Deqin County. Thirteen influencing factors, including (a) lithology, (b) slope angle, (c) slope aspect, (d) TWI, (e) curvature, (f) SPI, (g) STI, (h) topographic relief, (i) rainfall, (j) vegetation, (k) NDVI, (l) distance-to-river, (m) and distance-to-fault, were selected as the landslide conditioning factors in landslide susceptibility mapping. These factors were mainly obtained from the field survey, digital elevation model (DEM), and Landsat 4–5 imagery using ArcGIS software. A total of 40 landslides were identified in the study area from field survey and aerial photos’ interpretation. First, the frequency ratio (FR) method was used to clarify the relationship between the landslide occurrence and the influencing factors. Then, the principal component analysis (PCA) was used to eliminate multiple collinearities between the 13 influencing factors and to reduce the dimension of the influencing factors. Subsequently, the factors that were reselected using the PCA were introduced into the logistic regression analysis to produce the landslide susceptibility map. Finally, the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve was used to evaluate the accuracy of the logistic regression analysis model. The landslide susceptibility map was divided into the following five classes: very low, low, moderate, high, and very high. The results showed that the ratios of the areas of the five susceptibility classes were 23.14%, 22.49%, 18.00%, 19.08%, and 17.28%, respectively. And the prediction accuracy of the model was 83.4%. The results were also compared with the FR method (79.9%) and the AHP method (76.9%), which meant that the susceptibility model was reasonable. Finally, the key factors of the landslide occurrence were determined based on the above results. Consequently, this study could serve as an effective guide for further land use planning and for the implementation of development.

Forecasting the occurrence potential of landslides is important but challenging. We aimed to forecast the failure potential of the Helong landslide, which is temporarily stable but has clearly deformed in recent years. To achieve the goal, we used reconnaissance, remote sensing, drilling, laboratory tests, topographical analysis, and electrical resistivity tomography (ERT). The factor of safety (FOS) of the slope was first calculated using a limit equilibrium method. The results show the FOS of the slope was 1.856 under natural conditions, 1.506 under the earthquake conditions, 1.318 under light rainfall, 0.986 under heavy rainfall, 1.075 under light rainfall and earthquake, and 0.832 under simultaneous heavy rainfall and earthquake. When the FOS is less than 1.35, the slope is considered metastable according to the Technical Code for Building Slope Engineering (GB50330-2013) published by the Chinese Ministry of Housing and Urban-Rural Development. Based on the drilling data and digital elevation data, a three-dimensional discrete element method (DEM) model was used to simulate potential landslides. The simulation was used to examine catastrophic slope failure under heavy rainfall conditions within a range of friction coefficients and the corresponding affected areas were determined. Then, we analyzed a typical run-out process. The dynamic information of the run-out behavior, including velocity, run-out distance, and depth, were obtained, which is useful for decision support and future landslide hazard assessment.

Tensile cracks in soil slopes, especially developing at the crown, have been increasingly recognized as the signal of slope metastability. In this paper, the role of crown cracks in natural soil slopes was investigated and their effect on stability was studied. A numerical slope model based on the extended finite element method (XFEM) simulating the tensile behavior of soil was used. Before the simulation, a numerical soil tensile test was applied to validate the use of XFEM on tensile behavior of soil. Slope failure was simulated by using strength reduction technique, which can determine the potential slip surface of slope. The simulation results show that the crown crack forms in natural soil slopes when the plastic zone starts penetrating, and therefore it is reasonable to consider the crown crack as the signal of slope metastability. A sensitivity analysis shows that cracks are at the position of the tension zone or very long can obviously affect the slope stability. The stress variation analysis from the initial deformation to slip surface penetration shows that the slope is at a state of compressive stress initially. When plastic zone starts to penetrate, the upper part of slope generates tension zone, but the extent of tension zone is limited until slope failure. This shows why tensile cracks are difficult to form and be stretched in the deep part of the slope. The application of XFEM on slope stability analysis can be used to assess the tensile strength of soil and predict slope failure disaster.