As integral components of ecosystems, rodents exhibit high sensitivity to environmental fluctuations. As a typical semi-subterranean rodent, the burrowing and foraging behaviors of the mole vole (Ellobius tancrei) profoundly impact local microhabitat structure and vegetation succession. Given its extensive distribution range, investigating the geographical distribution of the mole vole under climate change is critical for understanding its population dynamics and spatial patterns. To explore the impacts of climate change on the potential distribution of this species, we utilized an ensemble model based on 395 occurrence records and 38 environmental variables. We predicted its potential geographical distribution under current (1970–2000) and three future climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, and SSP585) across three future periods (2041–2060, 2061–2080, and 2081–2100) and further analyzed the variation trends and centroid migration directions of its global potential distribution. The results revealed the following: (1) Elevation (Dem) and temperature annual range (Bio7) were the dominant environmental factors driving the potential distribution of the mole vole, followed by precipitation of the warmest quarter (Bio18), mean diurnal range (Bio2), annual mean temperature (Bio1), base saturation (BSAT), precipitation seasonality (Bio15), calcium carbonate content (TCARBON_EQ), and available water capacity (AWC). (2) Under current climate conditions, the highly suitable habitats were mainly concentrated in Eurasia, particularly in Turkey, Kyrgyzstan, China, Mongolia, and Russia. (3) Under future climate scenarios, suitable habitats showed simultaneous expansion and contraction, with expansion consistently exceeding contraction across all scenarios and periods, especially under SSP585 in the late 21st century. (4) Relative to the current period, the suitable-habitat centroid shifted northeastward under SSP126, but northwestward under SSP245 and SSP585. This study reveals the dynamic spatial shifts of the mole vole driven by climate change, not only providing crucial scientific support for early spatial warning and precise prevention of agricultural and pastoral rodent damage, but also laying a theoretical foundation for understanding the ecological adaptation mechanisms of subterranean rodents and mitigating potential cross-regional dispersal risks.

To tackle the low nitrogen-use efficiency, water scarcity, and insufficient forage supply in improved grasslands in arid Northwest China, a two-factor field trial involving three biochar dosages (0, 10, 20 t ha⁻¹) and two nitrogen (N) application rates (0, 225 kg ha⁻¹) was conducted on mountain grassland in Xinjiang, with Onobrychis viciifolia and Bromus inermis as test forages. Soil physicochemical traits, soil–forage and water–nitrogen dynamics, forage productivity, and economic returns were determined, and partial least squares path modeling (PLS-PM, GoF = 0.373) was conducted to quantify the regulatory pathways. Co-treatments with biochar and N markedly lowered soil bulk density and elevated porosity, soil organic carbon, and the available N pool; application of biochar deferred the peak of soil available N and prolonged fertilizer efficacy by more than seven days. Forage total nitrogen- and water-use efficiency peaked at the first cutting, with the B1N1 treatment (10 t ha⁻¹ biochar + 225 kg ha⁻¹ N) boosting water-use efficiency by 45.2%. O. viciifolia exhibited optimal performance under B1N15, while B2N15 (20 t ha⁻¹ biochar + 225 kg ha⁻¹ N) was more favorable for B. inermis. The B1N15 regime achieved the highest net profit of CNY 12,747.99 ha⁻¹, but high biochar input cut economic gains by 14.1%. The PLS-PM model uncovered a dual regulatory mechanism: combined amendments directly optimized soil microhabitats, and soil water–nitrogen conditions served as a central mediator to facilitate biomass accumulation and economic gains through cascading soil–vegetation transmission, without direct impacts on vegetation productivity or economic outputs. This research provides a scientific reference for the use of fertilization in the sustainable management of arid improved grasslands.