Urban water supply networks are prone to complex noise interference, which significantly degrades the performance of data-driven forecasting models. Conventional denoising techniques, such as standard Variational Mode Decomposition (VMD), often rely on empirical parameter selection or optimize only a subset of parameters, lacking a robust mechanism for identifying noise-dominant components post-decomposition. To address these issues, this paper proposed a novel denoising framework termed Dynamic Hyperbolic Tangent PSO-optimized VMD (DHTPSO-VMD). The DHTPSO algorithm adaptively adjusts inertia weights and cognitive/social learning factors during iteration, mitigating the local optima convergence typical of traditional PSO and enabling automated VMD parameter selection. Furthermore, a dual-criteria screening strategy based on Variance Contribution Rate (VCR) and Correlation Coefficient Metric (CCM) is employed to accurately identify and eliminate noise-related Intrinsic Mode Functions (IMFs). Validation using pressure data from District A in Zhejiang Province, China, demonstrated that the proposed DHTPSO-VMD method significantly outperforms benchmark approaches (PSO-VMD, EMD, SABO-VMD, GWO-VMD) in terms of Signal-to-Noise Ratio (SNR), Mean Absolute Error (MAE), and Mean Square Error (MSE). Subsequent forecasting experiments using an Informer model showed that signals preprocessed with DHTPSO-VMD achieved superior prediction accuracy (R² = 0.948924), underscoring its practical utility for smart water supply management.

Balloon-borne based solar unmanned aerial vehicle (short for BS-UAV) has been researched prevalently due to the promising application area of near-space (i.e., 20–100 km above the ground) and the advantages of taking off. However, BS-UAV encounters serious fault in its taking off phase. The fault in taking off hinders the development of BS-UAV and causes great loss to human property. Thus, timely diagnosing the running state of BS-UAV in taking off phase is of great importance. Unfortunately, due to lack of fault data in the taking off phase, timely diagnosing the running state becomes a key challenge. In this paper, we propose Ponder to diagnose the running state of BS-UAV in the taking off phase. The key idea of Ponder is to take full advantage of existing data and complement fault data first and then diagnose current states. First, we compress existing data into a low-dimensional space. Then, we cluster the low-dimensional data into normal and outlier clusters. Third, we generate fault data with different aggression at different clusters. Finally, we diagnose fault state for each sampling at the taking off phase. With three datasets collected on real-world flying at different times, we show that Ponder outperforms existing diagnosing methods. In addition, we demonstrate Ponder’s effectiveness over time. We also show the comparable overhead.