Maize is a critical global food and feed crop, and China is one of the world's largest producers and consumers of maize (Su, 2024;Wang et al., 2022). Within China's agricultural system, maize ranks alongside rice and wheat as one of the three major staple grains, playing a vital role in ensuring food security. Maize has consistently accounted for a high proportion of the total agricultural output value, particularly in Northeast China and the Huang-Huai-Hai region, where maize planting areas exceed 50% of the total grain crop area, making it a pillar OPEN ACCESS EDITED BY Niaz Ali, Hazara University, Pakistan of the local agricultural economy. Maize is not only an important supplement to food production but also the primary source of feed grain for the livestock sector, accounting for over 60% of national feed grain consumption (Wang et al., 2022). Its stable supply is crucial for the sustained production of meat and dairy products. Due to its suitability for mechanized and large-scale cultivation, maize has become a key sector in China's agricultural modernization, significantly promoting the dissemination of agricultural technologies and improvements in production efficiency.In recent years, driven by population growth and economic development, maize demand has continued to rise. Between 2013 and 2023, China's maize production increased by 46.9%, growing from 209 million tons to 307 million tons (Wang et al., 2021;Liu and Liu, 2023). The growth rate of maize-sown area has outpaced that of other staple crops, but this expansion has also revealed structural contradictions such as inventory surpluses, insufficient supply of high-quality maize, and deepening dependence on imports (Liu and Liu, 2023;Ye et al., 2024;Wang et al., 2024). Currently, maize has become China's secondlargest imported agricultural product, with imports reaching 27.13 million tons in 2023, exacerbating market risks due to over-quota imports (Si et al., 2025). The 2009 natural disaster in Northeast China triggered China's transition from a net exporter to a net importer of maize, and dependence on the international market has continued to intensify since then (Song and Wei, 2024).Against the backdrop of climate change and global geopolitical instability, the strategic significance of maintaining a stable maize supply for national food security and livestock sector development has greatly increased (Song et al., 2020). Price volatility and precipitation uncertainty in maize production present challenges similar to those faced by other staple crops. Based on panel data from 116 prefecturelevel cities between 2003 and 2019, this study quantitatively analyzes the combined effects of maize prices, fertilizer price indices, and monthly precipitation on planting area and yield. It reveals the vulnerabilities of the food production system under the dual pressures of market and climate change, as well as the need for adaptive adjustments. The findings are not only applicable to the maize system in China but also provide important references for addressing common challenges in the construction of sustainable global food systems.Agriculture is one of the sectors most sensitive and vulnerable to climate change (Qian et al., 2014). Some scholars have combined crop models with tools such as Global Climate Models (GCM) and Regional Climate Models (RCM) to analyze the impacts of climate change on agricultural production (Jin, 1991;Lin et al., 1997;Gao, 1991). The impacts of climate change on maize production are primarily reflected in planting area and yield, with key driving factors including precipitation, temperature, and extreme weather events. Changes in precipitation patterns and droughts directly affect the stability of maize yields. Chen and Su (2022) found that precipitation in major maize production areas of Henan Province exhibits nonlinear effects on maize yields, with excessive or insufficient rainfall during the silking stage leading to yield reductions. Ma et al. (2015) indicated that drought significantly reduces maize yields in Hebei, while an increase of 10 millimeters of precipitation can boost yield by 0.21%. Ray et al. (2015) demonstrated that one-third of global maize yield variability can be attributed to climate variability. Temperature is another critical factor influencing maize yield. Studies by Mao et al. (2022) and Cui et al. (2011) showed that moderate increases in temperature can extend the growing period and enhance yields in North China and Northeast China, while high temperatures during the silking and grain-filling stages have significant negative effects. International research, such as Zhao et al. (2017), pointed out that global warming has already led to stagnation in maize yield growth in some regions, particularly in tropical and subtropical areas. Climate change also alters the climatic suitability of land, thereby influencing the spatial distribution of maize planting areas and total production. Research by Ge et al. (2015), based on the GAEZ model, suggested a general decline in maize suitability in China, although the Northeast Plain has seen improved suitability due to rising temperatures and better hydrothermal conditions, while North China has faced constraints from warming and drying trends. Nationwide, climate change has led to a trend of "potential reduction-regional divergence" in maize production (Zhu, 2024), with yields increasing in Northeast China but growth slowing or even declining in North China due to intensified extreme weather events. Regional disparities and adaptation strategies have become focal points of research. In Northeast China, rising temperatures and improved precipitation have led to positive trends in planting area and yield (Ge et al., 2015;Cui et al., 2011). However, in North China, worsening warming and drying trends have progressively deteriorated production conditions (Mao et al., 2022), making adaptation strategies especially important. Chen and Zhou...