The burden of chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) across many world regions is high. We aim to estimate COPD prevalence and number of disease cases for the years 1990 and 2010 across world regions based on the best available evidence in publicly accessible scientific databases.\ud \ud We conducted a systematic search of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for original, population–based studies providing spirometry–based prevalence rates of COPD across the world from January 1990 to December 2014. Random effects meta–analysis was conducted on extracted crude prevalence rates of COPD, with overall summaries of the meta–estimates (and confidence intervals) reported separately for World Health Organization (WHO) regions, the World Bank's income categories and settings (urban and rural). We developed a meta–regression epidemiological model that we used to estimate the prevalence of COPD in people aged 30 years or more.\ud \ud Our search returned 37 472 publications. A total of 123 studies based on a spirometry–defined prevalence were retained for the review. From the meta–regression epidemiological model, we estimated about 227.3 million COPD cases in the year 1990 among people aged 30 years or more, corresponding to a global prevalence of 10.7% (95% confidence interval (CI) 7.3%–14.0%) in this age group. The number of COPD cases increased to 384 million in 2010, with a global prevalence of 11.7% (8.4%–15.0%). This increase of 68.9% was mainly driven by global demographic changes. Across WHO regions, the highest prevalence was estimated in the Americas (13.3% in 1990 and 15.2% in 2010), and the lowest in South East Asia (7.9% in 1990 and 9.7% in 2010). The percentage increase in COPD cases between 1990 and 2010 was the highest in the Eastern Mediterranean region (118.7%), followed by the African region (102.1%), while the European region recorded the lowest increase (22.5%). In 1990, we estimated about 120.9 million COPD cases among urban dwellers (prevalence of 13.2%) and 106.3 million cases among rural dwellers (prevalence of 8.8%). In 2010, there were more than 230 million COPD cases among urban dwellers (prevalence of 13.6%) and 153.7 million among rural dwellers (prevalence of 9.7%). The overall prevalence in men aged 30 years or more was 14.3% (95% CI 13.3%–15.3%) compared to 7.6% (95% CI 7.0%–8.2%) in women.\u

Background Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is an autoimmune disorder that affects the small joints of the body. It is one of the leading causes of chronic morbidity in high-income countries, but little is known about the burden of this disease in low-and middle-income countries (LMIC). Methods The aim of this study was to estimate the prevalence of RA in six of the World Health Organization's (WHO) regions that harbour LMIC by identifying all relevant studies in those regions. To accomplish this aim various bibliographic databases were searched: PubMed, EMBASE, Global Health, LILACS and the Chinese databases CNKI and WanFang. Studies were selected based on pre-defined inclusion criteria, including a definition of RA based on the 1987 revision of the American College of Rheumatology (ACR) definition. Results Meta-estimates of regional RA prevalence rates for countries of low or middle income were 0.40% (95% CI: 0.23-0.57%) for Southeast Asian, 0.37% (95% CI: 0.23-0.51%) for Eastern Mediterranean, 0.62% (95% CI: 0.47-0.77%) for European, 1.25% (95% CI: 0.64-1.86%) for American and 0.42% (95% CI: 0.30-0.53%) for Western Pacific regions. A formal meta-analysis could not be performed for the sub-Saharan African region due to limited data. Male prevalence of RA in LMIC was 0.16% (95% CI: 0.11-0.20%) while the prevalence in women reached 0.75% (95% CI: 0.60-0.90%). This difference between males and females was statistically significant (P < 0.0001). The prevalence of RA did not differ significantly between urban and rural settings (P = 0.353). These prevalence estimates represent 2.60 (95% CI: 1.85-3.34%) million male sufferers and 12.21 (95% CI: 9.78-14.67%) million female sufferers in LMIC in the year 2000, and 3.16 (95% CI: 2.25-4.05%) million affected males and 14.87 (95% CI: 11.91-17.86%) million affected females in LMIC in the year 2010. Conclusion Given that majority of the world's population resides in LMIC, the number of affected people is substantial, with a projection to increase in the coming years. Therefore, policy makers and health-care providers need to plan to address a significant disease burden both socially and economically.

Measures of the direction and strength of the interdependence among time series from multivariate systems are evaluated based on their statistical significance and discrimination ability. The best-known measures estimating direct causal effects, both linear and nonlinear, are considered, i.e., conditional Granger causality index (CGCI), partial Granger causality index (PGCI), partial directed coherence (PDC), partial transfer entropy (PTE), partial symbolic transfer entropy (PSTE) and partial mutual information on mixed embedding (PMIME). The performance of the multivariate coupling measures is assessed on stochastic and chaotic simulated uncoupled and coupled dynamical systems for different settings of embedding dimension and time series length. The CGCI, PGCI and PDC seem to outperform the other causality measures in the case of the linearly coupled systems, while the PGCI is the most effective one when latent and exogenous variables are present. The PMIME outweighs all others in the case of nonlinear simulation systems.

Background: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) is among the leading causes of death globally, accounting for about 3 million deaths worldwide in 2011. We aimed to estimate the prevalence of COPD in Africa in the year 2010 to provide the information that could assist health policy in the region. Methods: We conducted a systematic review of Medline, EMBASE and Global Health for studies on COPD published between 1990 and 2012. We included original population based studies providing estimates of the prevalence of COPD. We considered the reported estimates in terms of the mean age of the sample, sex ratio, the year of study and the country of the study as possible covariates. Results from two different types of studies, i.e., based on spirometric and non-spirometric diagnosis of COPD, were further compared. The United Nation Population Division's population figures were used to estimate the number of COPD cases in the year 2010. Results: Our search returned 243 studies, from which only 13 met our selection criteria and only five were based on spirometry. The difference in the median prevalence of COPD in persons aged 40 years or older based on spirometry data (13.4%; IQR: 9.4%–22.1%) and non-spirometry data (4.0%; IQR: 2.1%–8.9%) was statistically significant (p = 0.001). There was no significant effect of the gender or the year of the study on the reported prevalence of COPD in either set of studies. The prevalence of COPD increased with age in spirometry-based studies (p = 0.017), which is a plausible finding suggesting internal consistency of spirometry-based estimates, while this trend was not observed in studies using other case definitions. When applied to the appropriate age group (40 years or more), which accounted for 196.4 million people in Africa in 2010, the estimated prevalence translates into 26.3 million (18.5–43.4 million) cases of COPD. Comparable figures for the year 2000 based on the same prevalence rates would amount to 20.0 million (14.1–33.1), suggesting an increase of 31.5% over a decade that is attributable to ageing of the African population alone. Conclusion: Our findings suggest that COPD is likely to already represent a very large public health problem in Africa. Moreover, rapidly ageing African population should expect a steady increase in the number of COPD cases in the next decade and beyond. The quantity and quality of available evidence does not match the size of the problem. There is a need for more research on COPD prevalence, but also incidence, mortality and risk factors in Africa. We hope this study will raise awareness of COPD in Africa and encourage further research.