To quantitatively access the effects of drought stress during different growth stages of soybean on development process and yield, a pot-culture experiment was conducted in China’s Huaibei Plain with different irrigation treatments over two seasons (2015 and 2016). Two drought stress levels (mild and severe) were applied at four growth stages for the experiment (S: seedling stage; B: branching stage; FPS: flowering and pod-setting stage; and PF: pod-filling stage). The effects of drought stress at different stages on growth and yield were evaluated and compared. Results of this two-year study showed that all growth and yield parameters were significantly affected by the water deficit during the sensitive FPS. Compared to the full irrigation treatment, severe drought stress during FPS caused a 22% loss of final plant height, 61% loss of the leaf area per plant (LAP), and 67% loss of final aboveground dry matter (ADM). Yield components also declined dramatically with water deficits during FPS and PF. Significant seed yield losses of 73–82% per plant were observed in the plants exposed to drought stress during FPS, and were also associated with the highest nonviable pod percentage of 13%. The greatest losses in 100-seed weight (42–48%) were observed under drought stress during PF. A rising trend in response to increasing soil water deficit (SWD) was observed for LAP, yield, and ADM losses. The slope (k) values of these fitting curves varied at different treatments, the highest value of k (7.37 and 8.47 in two years, respectively) was also observed in the sensitive FPS.

Quantifying the lasting effects of drought stress on crop growth is a theoretical basis for revealing agricultural drought risk mechanism and formulating adaptive irrigation strategies. Based on two-season pot experiments of soybean in the Huaibei Plain, quantitative responses of plant evapotranspiration and aboveground biomass at each growth stage from a drought were carried out. The results showed that drought stress at a certain stage of soybean not only significantly reduced the current evapotranspiration and aboveground biomass accumulation during this stage, compared with full irrigation, but also generated the after-effects, which resulted in the reductions of evapotranspiration and biomass accumulation at the subsequent periods. Furthermore, the damaged transpiration and growth mechanism caused by drought gradually recovered through the rewatering later, and the compensation phenomenon even occurred. Nevertheless, the specific recovery effect was decided by both the degree and period of drought before. It is practical to implement deficit irrigation at the seedling and branching stages, but the degree should be controlled. Meanwhile, it is crucial to ensure sufficient water supply during the reproductive growth phase, especially at the flowering and pod-enlargement stage, to guarantee a normal transpiration function and a high biomass yield for soybeans in the Huaibei Plain.

In an agricultural drought risk system, crop drought loss sensitivity evaluation is a fundamental link for quantitative agricultural drought loss risk assessment. Summer maize growth processes under various drought patterns were simulated using the Cropping System Model (CSM)-CERES-maize, which was calibrated and validated based on pit experiments conducted in the Huaibei Plain during 2016 and 2017 seasons. Then S-shaped maize drought loss sensitivity curve was built for fitting the relationship between drought hazard index intensity at a given stage and the corresponding dry matter accumulation and grain yield loss rate, respectively. Drought stress reduced summer maize evapotranspiration, dry matter, and yield accumulation, and the reductions increased with the drought intensity at each stage. Moreover, the losses caused by drought at different stages were significantly different. When maize plants were exposed to a severe water deficit at the jointing stage, the dry matter and grain yield formation were greatly affected. Therefore, maize growth was more sensitive to drought stress at the jointing stage when the stress was serious. Furthermore, when plants encountered a relatively slight drought during the seedling or jointing stage, which represented as a lower soil water deficit intensity, the grain yield loss rates approached the maximum for the sensitivity curves of these two stages. Therefore, summer maize tolerance to water deficit at the seedling and jointing stages were weak, and yield formation was more sensitive to water deficit during these two stages when the deficit was relatively slight.

Estimating crop evapotranspiration under drought stress provides the theoretical foundation for optimizing irrigation schedule and reducing agricultural drought risk. Winter wheat water deficit plot experiments were conducted based on large-scale weighing lysimeters in the Huaibei Plain. The response of evapotranspiration to water deficit during several growth stages was analyzed; four crop coefficients were optimized and then evapotranspiration under drought stress was estimated with the dual crop coefficient method and the genetic algorithm. Drought stress not only reduced evapotranspiration during the current stage, but this influence was also transferred to the following periods. Evapotranspiration could basically return to the normal status after rewatering if the plant did not previously suffer from serious drought stress. Therefore, severe water deficit during continuous wheat growth periods should be avoided, and the deficit intensity during each stage should be controlled. The optimized K_{cb ini}, K_{cb mid}, K_{cb end} and K_{c max} were 0.32, 1.38, 0.33 and 1.39, and the root mean square error, mean absolute error, and mean relative error of the corresponding estimated evapotranspiration under drought stress were 22.83%, 25.36%, and 11.78% less than those using recommended coefficients, respectively. These optimized crop coefficients provide references for the practical application in the Huaibei Plain, this method for estimating crop evapotranspiration under drought stress can be applied to field circumstances and other regions.

To provide a scientific reference for formulating an effective soybean irrigation schedule in the Huaibei Plain, potted water deficit experiments with nine alternative irrigation schemes during the 2015 and 2016 seasons were conducted. An irrigation scheme decision-making index system was established from the aspects of crop water consumption, crop growth process and crop water use efficiency. Moreover, a grey entropy weight method and a grey relation–projection pursuit model were proposed to calculate the weight of each decision-making index. Then, nine alternative schemes were sorted according to the comprehensive grey relation degree of each scheme in the two seasons. The results showed that, when using the entropy weight method or projection pursuit model to determine index weight, it was more direct and effective to obtain the corresponding entropy value or projection eigenvalue according to the sequence of the actual study object. The decision-making results from the perspective of actual soybean growth responses at each stage for various irrigation schemes were mostly consistent in 2015 and 2016. Specifically, for an integrated target of lower water consumption and stable biomass yields, the scheme with moderate-deficit irrigation at the soybean branching stage or seedling stage and adequate irrigation at the flowering-podding and seed filling stages is relatively optimal.

Due to the importance and complexity of water resources regulations in the pond irrigation systems of the Jiang-Huai hilly regions, a water allocation simulation model for pond irrigation districts based on system simulation theory was developed in this study. To maximize agricultural irrigation benefits while guaranteeing rural domestic water demand, an optimal water resources regulation model for pond irrigation districts and a simulation-based optimal water resources regulation technology system for the pond irrigation system were developed. Using this system, it was determined that the suitable pond coverage rate (pond capacity per unit area) was 2.92 × 10⁵ m³/km². Suitable water supply and operational rules for adjusting crop planting structure were also developed the water-saving irrigation method and irrigation system. To guarantee rural domestic water demand, the multi-year average total irrigation water deficit of the study area decreased by 4.66 × 10⁴ m³/km²; the average multi-year water deficit ratio decreased from 20.40% to 1.18%; the average multi-year irrigation benefit increased by 1.11 × 10⁵ RMB (16,128$)/km²; and the average multi-year revenue increased by 6.69%. Both the economic and social benefits were significant. The results of this study provide a theoretical basis and technological support for comprehensive pone governance in the Jiang-Huai hilly regions and promote the establishment of a water allocation scheme and irrigation system for pond irrigation districts, which have practical significance and important application value.