Explaining the evolution and maintenance of cooperation among unrelated individuals is one of the fundamental problems in biology and the social sciences. Recent findings suggest that altruistic punishment is an important mechanism maintaining cooperation among humans. We experimentally explore the boundaries of altruistic punishment to maintain cooperation by varying both the cost and the impact of punishment, using an exceptionally extensive subject pool. Our results show that cooperation is only maintained if conditions for altruistic punishment are relatively favourable: low cost for the punisherandhigh impact on the punished. Our results indicate that punishment is strongly governed by its cost-to-impact ratio and that its effect on cooperation can be pinned down to one single variable: the threshold level of free-riding that goes unpunished. Additionally, actual pay-offs are the lowest when altruistic punishment maintains cooperation, because the pay-off destroyed through punishment exceeds the gains from increased cooperation. Our results are consistent with the interpretation that punishment decisions come from an amalgam of emotional response and cognitive cost–impact analysis and suggest that altruistic punishment alone can hardly maintain cooperation under multi-level natural selection. Uncovering the workings of altruistic punishment as has been done here is important because it helps predicting under which conditions altruistic punishment is expected to maintain cooperation.

Environmental variability and adaptive foraging behavior have been shown to favor coexistence of specialists and generalists on an ecological timescale. This leaves unaddressed the question of whether such coexistence can also be expected on an evolutionary timescale. In this article, we study the attainability, through gradual evolution, of specialist-generalist coexistence, as well as the evolutionary stability of such communities when allowing for immigration. Our analysis shows that the potential for specialist-generalist coexistence is much more restricted than originally thought and strongly depends on the trade-off structure assumed. We establish that ecological coexistence is less likely for species facing a trade-off between per capita reproduction in different habitats than when the trade-off acts on carrying capacities alone. We also demonstrate that coexistence is evolutionarily stable whenever it is ecologically stable but that in most cases, such coexistence cannot be reached through gradual evolution. We conclude that an evolutionarily stable community of specialists and generalists may be created only through immigration from elsewhere or through mutations of large effect. Our results highlight that trade-offs in fitness-determining traits can have counterintuitive effects on the evolution of specialization.

Evolution has traditionally been a historical and descriptive science, and predicting future evolutionary processes has long been considered impossible. However, evolutionary predictions are increasingly being developed and used in medicine, agriculture, biotechnology and conservation biology. Evolutionary predictions may be used for different purposes, such as to prepare for the future, to try and change the course of evolution or to determine how well we understand evolutionary processes. Similarly, the exact aspect of the evolved population that we want to predict may also differ. For example, we could try to predict which genotype will dominate, the fitness of the population or the extinction probability of a population. In addition, there are many uses of evolutionary predictions that may not always be recognized as such. The main goal of this review is to increase awareness of methods and data in different research fields by showing the breadth of situations in which evolutionary predictions are made. We describe how diverse evolutionary predictions share a common structure described by the predictive scope, time scale and precision. Then, by using examples ranging from SARS‐CoV2 and influenza to CRISPR‐based gene drives and sustainable product formation in biotechnology, we discuss the methods for predicting evolution, the factors that affect predictability and how predictions can be used to prevent evolution in undesirable directions or to promote beneficial evolution (i.e. evolutionary control). We hope that this review will stimulate collaboration between fields by establishing a common language for evolutionary predictions.

Diapause in arthropods is a physiological state of dormancy that is generally thought to promote survival during harsh seasons and dispersal, but it may also serve to avoid predation in space and time. Here, we show that predation-related odours induce diapause in female adult spider mites. We argue that this response allows them to move into an area where they are free of enemies, yet forced to survive without food. Spider mites are specialised leaf feeders, but—in late summer—they experience severe predation on leaves. Hence, they face a dilemma: to stay on the leaf and risk being eaten or to move away from the leaf and risk death from starvation and thirst. Female two-spotted spider mites solve this dilemma by dramatically changing their physiology when exposed to predation-associated cues. This allows them to disperse away from leaves and to survive in winter refuges in the bark of trees or in the soil. We conclude that the mere presence of predation-associated cues causes some herbivorous mites to seek refuge, thereby retarding the growth rate of the population as a whole: a trait-mediated indirect effect that may have consequences for the stability of predator–prey systems and for ecosystem structure.

We study the combined evolutionary dynamics of herbivore specialization and ecological character displacement, taking into account foraging behavior of the herbivores, and a quality gradient of plant types. Herbivores can adapt by changing two adaptive traits: their level of specialization in feeding efficiency and their point of maximum feeding efficiency along the plant gradient. The number of herbivore phenotypes, their levels of specialization, and the amount of character displacement among them are the result of the evolutionary dynamics, which is driven by the underlying population dynamics, which in turn is driven by the underlying foraging behavior. Our analysis demonstrates broad conditions for the diversification of a herbivore population into many specialized phenotypes, for basically any foraging behavior focusing utilization on highest gains while also including errors. Our model predicts two characteristic phases in the adaptation of herbivore phenotypes: a fast character displacement phase, and a slow coevolutionary niche shift phase. This two-phase pattern is expected to be of wide relevance in various consumer-resource systems. Bringing together ecological character displacement and the evolution of specialization in a single model, our study suggests suggests that the foraging behavior of herbivorous arthropods is a key factor promoting specialist raiation