Hippophae rhamnoides L. is an ecologically and medicinally significant species widely distributed across Eurasia, the suitable habitat of H. rhamnoides subsp. sinensis (is hereinafter referred to as sinensis) is concentrated in Northwest and Southwest China (approximately 34–40° N, 100–115° E). H. rhamnoides subsp. yunnanensis (hereinafter referred to as yunnanensis) is mainly distributed in the Hengduan Mountains and surrounding areas (approximately 25–30° N, 98–103° E). H. rhamnoides subsp. mongolica (hereinafter referred to as mongolica) is native to Central Asia to Siberia and is mainly distributed in Northern Xinjiang and Western Inner Mongolia in China (approximately 40–50° N, 100–120° E). H. rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica (hereinafter referred to as turkestanica) is mainly distributed in Western Xinjiang (approximately 40–45° N, 70–85° E). Climate change poses a considerable challenge, affecting its distribution and leading to shifts in its habitat ranges. This study applies the MaxEnt model to assess climate-driven distribution patterns of Hippophae species in China, and predicts current and future suitable habitats under climate change scenarios. This study employs the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to simulate the potential distribution of four subspecies of H. rhamnoides during the current period and future projections under scenarios SSP1–2.6 and SSP5–8.5. The analysis reveals that the distributions of sinensis, mongolica, yunnanensis, and turkestanica are influenced primarily by climate variables such as temperature and precipitation, while yunnanensis is predominantly restricted by altitude. Future projections indicate that under the extreme climate of SSP5–8.5, centroid migration will be disrupted; specifically, sinensis is expected to migrate northeast or oscillate, mongolica will expand southwest but be limited by desert steppe zones, and turkestanica may face risks associated with groundwater depletion. This study advocates for integrating climate, ecological, and genetic data into conservation planning, with an emphasis on groundwater restoration and exploring genetic resources for stress resilience. The insights offered here contribute significantly to understanding climate adaptation mechanisms in arid and mountainous ecosystems and guide biodiversity conservation efforts.

Hippophae rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica is mainly distributed in the mountains, valleys, and desert edges of Central Asia. It plays a vital role in maintaining ecological stability in arid and semiarid areas. In this study, the MaxEnt model was used to simulate the habitat suitability of H. rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica, and the key environmental factors affecting its distribution were identified. Additionally, we explored habitat sensitivity to climate change, and provided essential information for the conservation and management of this important subspecies in arid and semiarid regions. Under four different climate scenarios (SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585) in 2040, 2060, 2080, and 2100, the prediction of habitat suitability and changes in species distribution centroids in the future were simulated. The results revealed that suitable habitats for H. rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica are primarily located in Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, China, Pakistan, and Afghanistan. Altitude (Alt), isothermality (bio3), and slope (Slo) emerged as the main environmental factors. Projections suggest a significant expansion in the total area of suitable habitat under future climate scenarios. By 2100, the suitable habitat areas under the SSP126, SSP245, SSP370, and SSP585 scenarios will reach 10,526,800 km², 12,930,200 km², 15,449,900 km² and 14,504,800 km², respectively. In addition, a slight northwestward shift was observed in the distribution centroid. These findings provide important insights for conservation efforts aimed at protecting H. rhamnoides subsp. turkestanica and supporting its biodiversity. By understanding the factors affecting habitat suitability and predicting changes in climate scenarios, this study provides valuable guidance for developing long-term conservation strategies.

The aim of our study is to achieve a comprehensive understanding of the global distribution of suitable habitats for Sophora alopecuroides L., as well as how these habitats might change in response to climate change. We employed the MaxEnt niche model to integrate distribution data from the Global Biodiversity Information Platform, incorporating 19 bioclimatic factors. This approach enabled us to predict the potential geographic distribution of S. alopecuroides L. worldwide under both current climatic conditions and future greenhouse gas emission scenarios. The results were visualized via ArcGIS 10.8 software. The findings indicate that currently, the suitable habitat for S. alopecuroides L. spans 12,897,100 km², with the majority situated in the arid regions of Central and Eastern Asia. The key environmental variables influencing its distribution are annual mean temperature, maximum temperature of the warmest month, precipitation of the warmest season, and mean temperature of the coldest season. For future climate projections, suitable habitats generally exhibit a shrinking trend. The most pronounced decrease is anticipated under the moderate greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP245). However, under the high greenhouse gas emission scenario (SSP585), the suitable habitat area is projected to increase marginally by 2060. This dynamic change warning suggests that it is necessary to optimize climate adaptation strategies, strengthen ecological protection and restoration in suitable areas, so as to maintain the ecological service functions of S. alopecuroides L. in arid and semi-arid ecosystems, such as sand fixation and soil conservation, and maintain biodiversity, and provide basic guarantee for the sustainable development and utilization of its medicinal and forage resources. This study reveals the dynamic impact of climate change on the distribution of S. alopecuroides L. suitable areas, which not only provides a scientific basis for ecological restoration and S. alopecuroides L. resource protection in arid and semi-arid areas, but also has important practical significance for promoting the regional practice of the concept of sustainable development of “harmonious coexistence between man and nature.”