Martin Stokes

Dr. Martin Stokes

orcid

Research Focus & Metrics

Academic Career Length

28Years (1999-Present)

(Calculated once Scilit publication data is synced: current year − year of first publication + 1)

Representative Publications

View All Publications
1 June 2018 in Geomorphology
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
SBSarah Boulton
Sarah Boulton
MSMartin Stokes
Martin Stokes

1 May 1999 in Geomorphology
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
AHAdrian M. Harvey
Adrian M. Harvey
Pablo G. SilvaPablo G. Silva
Pablo G. Silva
AMAnne E. Mather
Anne E. Mather
JGJosé Luis Goy
José Luis Goy
MSMartin Stokes
Martin Stokes
CZCari Zazo
Cari Zazo

1 January 2005 in Geological Society, London, Special Publications
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
AHAdrian M. Harvey
Adrian M. Harvey
AMAnne E. Mather
Anne E. Mather
MSMartin Stokes
Martin Stokes

1 June 2017 in Quaternary Science Reviews
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
AMA.E. Mather
A.E. Mather
MSMartin Stokes
Martin Stokes
EWE. Whitfield
E. Whitfield

1 October 2014 in Tectonophysics
Verified
Journal Article
Closed access
SBSarah Boulton
Sarah Boulton
MSMartin Stokes
Martin Stokes
AMA.E. Mather
A.E. Mather

19 July 2021 in Journal of Geophysical Research: Earth Surface
Verified
Journal Article
Open access
PDF file
JJJ. N. Jones
J. N. Jones
SBSarah Boulton
Sarah Boulton
GBG. L. Bennett
G. L. Bennett
MSMartin Stokes
Martin Stokes
MWM. R. Z. Whitworth
M. R. Z. Whitworth
Landslide susceptibility models are fundamental components of landslide risk management strategies. These models typically assume that landslide occurrence is time‐independent, even though processes including earthquake preconditioning and landslide path dependency transiently impact landslide occurrence. Understanding the temporal characteristics of landslide occurrence remains limited by a lack of systematic investigation into how landslide distributions vary through time, and how this impacts landslide susceptibility. Here, we apply Kolmogorov‐Smirnoff and chi‐square statistics to a 30‐yr inventory of monsoon‐triggered landslides from Nepal to systematically quantify how landslide spatial distributions vary through time in “normal” years and years impacted by extreme events. We then develop binary logistic regression (BLR) susceptibility models for 12 yrs in our inventory with >400 landslides and use area under receiver operator curve validation to assess how well these models can hindcast landslide occurrence in other years. Landslide distributions are found to vary through time, particularly in years impacted by storms (1993 and 2002), earthquakes (2015), and floods (2017). Notably, Gorkha earthquake landscape preconditioning shifted 2015 monsoon‐triggered landslides to higher slopes, reliefs, and excess topographies. These variations significantly impact BLR susceptibility modeling, with models trained on extreme years unable to consistently hindcast landslide occurrence in other years. However, developing BLR models using increasingly long historical inventories shows that susceptibility models developed using >6–8 yrs of landslide data provide consistently good hindcasting accuracy. Overall, our results challenge time‐independent assumptions of landslide susceptibility approaches, highlighting the need for time‐dependent modeling techniques or historical inventories for landslide susceptibility modeling.